Will we all have to go back to the UK?

[Kitty]

I see that (whilst I was in hospital under the knife) the President, Van Rompuy, has said that if the euro fails, the E.U. itself will fail.  What then?

Over to you....

[baypond]

Then everyone can blame bankers again

[NormanH]

It might be the end of E forms anyway..

Stopping all those payments on E 121s would save a few bob.

[Théière]

[quote user="baypond"]Then everyone can blame bankers again
[/quote]

Yep too frequently we hear of cowboy tradesmen who "ruin" some peoples lives whilst these supposedly qualified professionals have an effect on everyone's lives. Stone them! Prisons were invented for debtors so as the bankers and economists are to blame and caused the countries debts then lock them up with a bucket to crap in (shared)

[idun]

This is interesting for us, as we are in the UK, but all our income comes from France in euros.

I had imagined that over the years, it would do it's usual ups and downs against the £, just as the FF did against the £, but failing, I had never actually thought of that.

[Alan Zoff]

Interesting article in the FT on the euro's chances of survival:

[YCCMB]

Which you can't read unless you're a subscriber.

[Kitty]

Would the break up of the European Union be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

Should we be worried?

[NormanH]

I am worried, but the Eurosceptics  here  and in the UK will be delighted. Quite why I can't understand.

[Quillan]

[quote user="Cathy"]I see that (whilst I was in hospital under the knife) the President, Van Rompuy, has said that if the euro fails, the E.U. itself will fail.  What then?

Over to you....

[/quote]

I think you have to put that comment in to the context that it was meant. What he is saying is that the Euro is strong (unlike the dollar and Sterling) and is a world currency now and its failure is as likely as the EU breaking up. Notice what he never said something like if the Euro fails so will the dollar because the dollar is failing which is why the US are using 'Quantitative Easing' which to the likes of you and me is printing money. The old Chinese are a pretty canny lot and they are still buying Euros, why is that, its a stable currency. Here's a tip, have a look at the exchange rates over the last 24 months for the Euro, not the dollar and the pound but other currencies like New Zealand, Arabic states, China etc, the big ups and downs are only with the dollar and the pound.

The other thing is how long do you think it would take to change back to the FF from the Euro, couple of weeks, months etc, well we are probably talking about five years or some say as many as 10. What would you do about the exchange rate, use the same figure , but then things have changed in Ten years.

As to what would happen to individuals like you and me well if the EU it's self broke up, which it won't (it might get smaller) well you would not have any rights anymore and would have to apply for residency which if you are on a UK state pension you may not get, as Norm says the E121 etc would all go so there is no health care unless you pay for private healthcare or work, in short you would be better off going back now if you believe this will happen.

Don't forget also that the 'biggest experts' in the world said the Euro would not last 6 weeks and that was at the time of the Greek bailout, they also said Greece would not pay a penny back and Spain would be in the same place as Greece within weeks. How long ago was that, nine months and yes they (the Greeks) are paying back the money, Spain is turning it's country round (you can tell because building has started again). Don't forget most of this rubbish and negativity comes from the US, they can't even get their own house in order and it would be very much in their interest for the Euro to fail because they are concerned about it becoming a bigger world currency than the dollar and if it did they would loose their world influence. Personally its about time the US were bought down a peg or two is my opinion.

[Frederick]

Then the German Courts may step in ? 

[Frederick]

Mods please remove ...I read the FT page OK It will not let me post it now It is going to their subscribe page

[Kitty]

[quote user="Quillan"]  As to what would happen to individuals like you and me well if the EU itself broke up, which it won't (it might get smaller) well you would not have any rights anymore and would have to apply for residency which if you are on a UK state pension you may not get, as Norm says the E121 etc would all go so there is no health care unless you pay for private healthcare or work, in short you would be better off going back now if you believe this will happen.

[/quote]

So anyone making a decision about whether to settle in France (or at the very least buy a house in France) ought to take a view about a possible EU break up?

[Pommier]

I can't see any scenario (other than nuclear war) in which the Euro would be allowed to fail.

As to the question of pensioners not having E forms, they'd all be on CMU, assuming they'd been in France for more than 5 years!

[NickP]

Cathy, people were buying houses in France and Spain long before the EU came into existence. Personally I don't see what the problem would be for house owners if the Euro failed, all it would mean is the Euro would return to the Franc and the Peseta etc.

[Quillan]

[quote user="Cathy"][quote user="Quillan"]  As to what would happen to individuals like you and me well if the EU itself broke up, which it won't (it might get smaller) well you would not have any rights anymore and would have to apply for residency which if you are on a UK state pension you may not get, as Norm says the E121 etc would all go so there is no health care unless you pay for private healthcare or work, in short you would be better off going back now if you believe this will happen. [/quote]

So anyone making a decision about whether to settle in France (or at the very least buy a house in France) ought to take a view about a possible EU break up?

[/quote]

I never said it would, I said it might get smaller. I think, from what I have read, is that the problem of the EU is that it grew too quickly in modern times i.e. in particular the old Eastern block countries joining. These countries are getting and will continue to get massive EU funding, just like Ireland, to build an infrastructure compatible with the rest of the EU. Many of these countries either cheated (strong word, perhaps manipulated is better) their financial situation to join when they shouldn't (have joined). If you read the French and German press there have been strong suggestions that the EU can't afford all this money and is yet to gain any benefits from these members and perhaps it would be better if they were asked to leave. Likewise I believe the timetable for Turkey joining has been put on hold. Whatever happens the EU will continue to exist, there is too much at stake and too many countries have invested heavily in it for it to fail.

So would I move to France, would I buy a house here if I wanted, the answer is a resounding YES.

[Gardengirl]

There was discussion about the possible break-up of the euro on R4 yesterday. One thing that interested me was the emphasis put on the fact that the German people are really fed up of constantly handing over cash to support weaker countries. It was suggested that there might be a two-tier system, with France and Germany being in the top tier. Another suggestion was that the weaker countries would stay in the euro, but that Germany would leave. As an aside there was a suggestion that marks were being printed/made in large quantities and being put aside for a rainy day!

[NormanH]

[quote user="Pommier"]I can't see any scenario (other than nuclear war) in which the Euro would be allowed to fail.

As to the question of pensioners not having E forms, they'd all be on CMU, assuming they'd been in France for more than 5 years![/quote]

Are you sure that the CMU would be given to what would then be foreign ( as opposed to EU as at present) nationals?

Or that the so-called 5 year rule would exist if France was no longer in Europe?

[cooperlola]

[quote user="You can call me Betty"]Which you can't read unless you're a subscriber.
[/quote]To be fair, to subscribe you only need to sign up - no money changes hands. 

[Quillan]

[quote user="gardengirl "]Another suggestion was that the weaker countries would stay in the euro, but that Germany would leave. As an aside there was a suggestion that marks were being printed/made in large quantities and being put aside for a rainy day![/quote]

Germany can't leave, its too far in and wouldn't get any money back for all the billions it has already given out. I know its not you personally but the statement about the Mark is again Chinese whispers. In a German news show a member of the public said they should start printing the Mark again. This found it's way on to a German Blog and from there to one of the German tabloids (the type similar to The Sun and the Sunday Sport) by which time it had been translated in to Germany secretly printing Marks. There was a very good and humorous piece on this in either the Guardian or The Independent around April/May time this year.

[Kitty]

I am trying to find an article a few years ago by, I think, Michael Portillo that suggested that the breakup of the European Union could result in a war - like Yugoslavia.

The E.U. is driven from the top (politicians etc) and the people are not that engaged with it.  I have always thought it is going too fast, with Treaty after Treaty, and that it should be given time to mature.

I was uncomfortable when Ireland had to keep voting in a referendum until they said 'yes' to the Lisbon Treaty.  Crazy.

Now there is talk of yet another Treaty.  Mmmm.

[Quillan]

Well the bottom line is Cathy is if you are that worried and you live full time or just have a holiday home in France then sell up and move your money back to the UK. It's all down to individual choice at the end of the day.

[Judith]

Surely it all depends on how tied up the euro and the EU really are.  The EU has existed in its various forms for 50 years (or so) before the euro came into being.  Agreed, that those who have tied their flags to wider EU integration and the euro as the European dollar equivalent  would see the fall of the euro as a bad thing, but its fall leading to the demise of the EU itself, probably not.  That being said, I would agree that if the euro fails, it may well change the form of the EU itself, making it smaller perhaps, but even that would not happen overnight - such organisational structures as it  has would take some time to dismantle even if the wish to do so was there.....

[idun]

I am not a euro sceptic, I am an EU hater. I had nothing against a proper trade alliance between european countries, that is a good idea.

I object to just about everything pertaining to the EU as it now stands. The people who run the EU, including those we actually elect are in some sort of unreal magical club, where they can pass rules and laws that make no sense what so ever and they can endlessly take from the system to live like kings without fear of audit or anyone doing a darned thing about them. WELL for the moment they can.

I do not want a United States of Europe.

And prices, well, I was in France a long time and all I can say is that once France had got on top of things, during our first couple of years, prices were then pretty stable and steady for many years pre the euro. Everything went up alarmingly once the euro came in.

My husband used to work with people who had moved to France to work pre all the freedom of movement thing and they managed. We had to do customs declarations etc to take our worldly goods to France, all takes a little effort but doable.

We will be tied to France for the rest of our days no matter what currency they are using. What ever they give could be worth a lot or buttons in the future, we won't be moving back in the hope of getting 'more' though.

[Pommier]

[quote user="NormanH"][quote user="Pommier"]I can't see any scenario (other than nuclear war) in which the Euro would be allowed to fail.

As to the question of pensioners not having E forms, they'd all be on CMU, assuming they'd been in France for more than 5 years![/quote]

Are you sure that the CMU would be given to what would then be foreign ( as opposed to EU as at present) nationals?

Or that the so-called 5 year rule would exist if France was no longer in Europe?

[/quote]

I was speculating on what would happen if the euro failed, not if the EU collapsed! Now that would be serious chaos!