French Presidential Election Result.

[pachapapa]

[quote user="Quillan"]

[quote user="NormanH"]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sarkozy-or-hollande-france-prepares-to-choose-its-future-7715652.html
Has got the two candidates about right.
[/quote]

Good article, I have been trying to read it all day but so many interruptions. [:'(] The bit that makes me wonder is the comment "The problems begin with the fiscal discipline element. The Socialist candidate has pledged to reduce the French state deficit to zero by 2017". I am wondering how he intends to do this as like Labour in the UK he is yet to come up with an actual plan or pass any real comment? It suggest to me that perhaps French public sector workers are in for just as much pain as they are under Sarkozy.

[/quote]

http://www.debateco.fr/sites/default/files/120425_Institut_entreprise_chiffrage_Hollande.pdf

[Gardian]

Well, they're 'off and running' in a few hours time.

I don't know about the rest of you elsewhere in France, but I sense an almost apathetic resignation about it all. For the most part, they'll vote, but that's as much about the social gathering of the voting process. For those not living here, the voting takes place in the Mairie and once one's vote has been cast, there's a more than a glass or two shifted in the environs!

It's more than likely that Hollande will win, though it'll probably be closer (as in the London Mayoral election) than the polls have predicted. He should (or to cover myself, will probably) count himself very fortunate to have come up against such a universally unpopular President.

 

[Mr Ceour de Lion II]

I read this on the Beeb site tonight:

"A

day before the election, media in France are obliged to refrain from any

reporting which might prejudice the ballot until the close of polls on

Sunday evening."

Can you imagine that being law in the US or UK? I think the media would self destruct!

[Alan Zoff]

They had only to show his photo to prejudice Sarkozy's chances.

[breizh]

[quote user="Quillan"]

[quote user="NormanH"]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sarkozy-or-hollande-france-prepares-to-choose-its-future-7715652.html
Has got the two candidates about right.
[/quote]

Good article, I have been trying to read it all day but so many interruptions. [:'(] The bit that makes me wonder is the comment "The problems begin with the fiscal discipline element. The Socialist candidate has pledged to reduce the French state deficit to zero by 2017". I am wondering how he intends to do this as like Labour in the UK he is yet to come up with an actual plan or pass any real comment? It suggest to me that perhaps French public sector workers are in for just as much pain as they are under Sarkozy.

[/quote]

Hollande is relying on the tax multiplier effect.

There is a quirk in Deficit v GDP calculating which I understand, but struggle to explain very well in simple terms, but I will try[:P]

The private economy generates EUR X amount. The state taxes that economy, and collects EUR Y, and spends it. The GDP of a country is EUR X+Y. So if you increase taxes, and state spending, you have an increase in GDP. There are ancillary effects, more state workers paid for by taxes, is more tax revenue for the state, when they in turn pay taxes. Higher spending by the state increases the private economy, leading to more workers, higher profits, more taxes. As GDP increases, any state deficit in spending, becomes a smaller %age of GDP. Seems like a virtuous circle[:D]...............effectively you are spending the same money twice, thrice, four times.

To an Anglo-Saxon mindset, the obvious flaw is if higher taxes lead to a reduction in EUR X, leading to a reduction in Y[:D]

However, it worked in Sweden, for a long time, but crashed and burned in the 90s.

France already has the highest level of overall taxation in the OECD, and the plans are to increase that! The flaws are obvious, but he could make it work for a few years.

 

[pachapapa]

Saturday 20minutes ran " who you gonna vote for" poll, 20,000 + , Hollande 60% +.

Sunday " who did you vote for" poll , after 1200 + , Hollande 60%.

http://www.20minutes.fr/tous-les-sondages/

[Quillan]

[quote user="breizh"]There are ancillary effects, more state workers paid for by taxes, is more tax revenue for the state, when they in turn pay taxes. [/quote]

I am probably being a bit naive here but does not the tax money they pay come from the same place. If a state worker gets 10k per year that's 10k taken from the tax's collected from private sector workers and companies. He/she then pays say 30% tax (to keep it simple) back, he/she is not actually expanding the tax 'pot' in fact they are reducing it by 7k in real terms. Would it not be simpler just to pay them 7k tax free?

[pachapapa]

And

         Later

                    Today!

http://storage.canalblog.com/89/02/54235/75383445.jpg

[pachapapa]

 At The Hague the sun is shining, with 52.8°C. At Budapest, several clouds with 47.2°C .

http://twitter.com/#!/rtsinfoplus

[idun]

[Www] Would you care to alter those temperatures PPP. Sounds horrifically hot to me.[;-)]

[pachapapa]

[quote user="idun"]

[Www] Would you care to alter those temperatures PPP. Sounds horrifically hot to me.[;-)]

[/quote]

Read fahrenheit![8-)]

[Jako]

#radiolondres:

Price of food: cheese 53 ,  goulash 47 [B]

[powerdesal]

Took me a few mins to work that one out !!!!!

[Chancer]

15 minutes left before seeing if any of you Chancers are going to risk a €75000 fine by spreading the news when its recieved in London 2 hours before we get told in France.

[5-element]

Surely no need to spread the news, if we just know a link we can click on, then it's up to the individual???[blink]

Especially if, for instance, I asked for someone to PM me a link I can use. That is not illegal is it?

So...does anyone know....?

 

EDIT: it's OK, no need now. [6]

[NormanH]

LaLibre a Belgian paper carries such stories...

http://event.lalibre.be/l-actu-principale-de-ce-jour/#

[5-element]

I love the thinly disguised code, ie.  Pays-Bas vs. Hongrie [:D] here: http://presidentielles2012.rtl.be/rtlutils/others/presidentielles2012/

[pachapapa]

Smile from a wag in Dijon.

https://twitter.com/#!/jeanbamin/status/199169771923714049

[Will]

Just got back from the count in our very small commune (accompanied by two very generous plastic cups of pastis provided by M le maire). Sarko 20 votes, Hollande 7 votes, 3 empty envelopes, 1 blank. General feeling that Hollande would win in a close contest, and general dissatisfaction with either candidate and a lot of pessimism for the future of the French economy.

[YCCMB]

Nice tweet:

"The first rule of Frenchelections fight club is you don't talk about Frenchelections fight club"

[5-element]

I just hope (against all hope) that there might be one day, before I die, an election result which is worth getting wildly excited about.

Obama getting elected might be the most exciting I will have ever lived, and probably only because of his skin colour.

How depressing. [:(]

[Pickles]

AFP broke the embargo at 19:14 French time.

The Grauniad is still obeying the rules because

[quote]the Guardian has received legal advice which states:

The

authorities have threatened to prosecute anyone who publishes the exit

polls 'in France' indicating that they consider any site accessed from a

French IP address to amount to a publication in France. The French

courts would consider any website that was accessible in France to be

within their jurisdiction.[/quote]

[Christine Animal]

 

                                        [:)]

 

 

[tel]

Bye bye Sarky

[Russethouse]

And will that be 'welcome back, Franc ?'