The pound is on the brink

[creek]

Hi!

What do you know about accumulative insurance ("life insurance") in the Ukraine?

[baypond]

[quote user="creek"]Hi!
What do you know about accumulative insurance ("life insurance") in the Ukraine?[/quote]

Nothing....

All I know about Ukraine is that their exchange rate is on the move again.....Lost 10% in value this week, and has moved from 4.60 to 8.80 in a fraction over a year. And to think we worry about every 1% move in EUR/GBP !

[baypond]

[quote user="creek"]Hi!
What do you know about accumulative insurance ("life insurance") in the Ukraine?[/quote]

http://www.in-sure.ru/files/pdf/Life-08/Vremenko_eng.PDF

Vremenko Ludmyla knows a bit.

[Chancer]

Looks like the pound is heading down once again.

For the first time I gambled it about right and took delivery and paid for 100+ m2 of block paving just before it started falling a week ago.

The transaction was provisionally debited at €1.145 to the £ but 2 days later when it was finally debited by Nationwide I got €1.138.

Toady I noticed that it had fallen to €1.12 [:(]

[mint]

Yes, John (Chancer), don't tell me.  I'm having to spend a lot of money just now and it's a matter of gritting your teeth and just going shopping.............[:'(]

[DerekJ]

Having a Godin woodburner installed next week... the final payment is due after successful installation.  Could do with the rate being a bit kinder.[:(][:'(]

[Scooby]

[quote user="DerekJ"]Having a Godin woodburner installed next week... the final payment is due after successful installation.  Could do with the rate being a bit kinder.[:(][:'(]

[/quote]

Ditto, Derek, ditto [:(]

[baypond]

Looks to me like we are heading below 1.1000 again, possibly 1.0500. Thank god renovation almost completed.

[bigears]

hi

I'm almost used to just converting (in my head) one for one now.  We will all get used to it eventually.  1.20 is the best we can ever hope for wilh a low of parity, the good old days are gone forever.  The good news is when you sell and exchange euros for sterling, its a good deal. 

[JMB]

1.1108 this afternoon. Where to next week?

[mint]

Where to indeed!

Anyone care to hazard a guess as to why it's taken such a sharp dip recently?

 

[Harvey]

I found this on the firstrate fx website......

MARKET NEWS 18^TH SEPTEMBER 2009

Good Morning,

British Pound

The

UK economy took a further hit yesterday

after the Retail Sales for the month of August fell to 0%. This fall

was worse than expected and an on the back of this disappointing data

the Pound fell back to $1.65 against the US Dollar. This is

confirmation that the

UK economy is still continuing to suffer from the economic recession. With

Sterling weakness a recurrent theme of this week, the

currency is unlikely to receive any significant moves on the back of

fundamental data today. Lloyds this morning have issued a statement

which stated that it has considered alternatives to the Government

Asset Protection Scheme. They are concerned about the current weakness

of the Pound, and this in turn, has caused he Pound to drop further.

The Public Sector Net Borrowing for the month of August is released

today and is expected to increase from €8 billion up to €18 billion.

Euro

The Euro pushed higher against the US Dollar up to a high of

$1.4759. The Trade Balance in the European Monetary Union increased

much more than expected up to €6.8 billion. Today the Eurozone Current

Account is set to be released and is widely expected to show a decrease

in the deficit from €5.3 billion to €4.3 billion.

[mint]

Thank you for that, Harvey.

One likes to try and understand the apparently incomprehensible sometimes............[:D]

[tom.daniel]

Its all to do with Lloyds I belive, i got a similiar report fomr my FX Broker this morning

[AnOther]

[quote user="bigears"]The good news is when you sell and exchange euros for sterling, its a good deal.[/quote]You make that sound like a given [:'(]

[Chancer]

€1.105 - Vingt de jus!!!! [:-))]

Looks like I did spend my money at exactly the right time after all.

[Bugsy]

As the pound has fallen to almost parity again I was looking at some info and found this totally gob-smacking comment.

"The government's overall debt now stands at £804.8bn, or 57.5% of GDP, an increase of £172bn in the past year".

BBC News.

Thats 804.8 thousand million ffs.

Makes the drop in my small pension seem a little small.

.

[AnOther]

Government debt is not the whole story either.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3078296/the-true-extent-of-britains-debt.thtml

Is it any wonder that the £ is in the gutter.

God help us all if UK loses it's AAA credit rating (how it has hung on to it I don't know), we could be witnessing a second successive Labour government going cap in hand to the IMF [:'(] 

[AnOther]

Based on a population of 60 million £800bn works out at over £13,000 for every man, woman, and child but excludes household debt which is ~ £9,226 (excluding mortgages). This figure increases to £21,457 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.

Average household debt in the UK is ~ £58,280 (including mortgages).

Source

My personal indebtedness stands at about €15 which I owe to my neighbour for a saw blade he bought for me !

[NormanH]

It's clear that the intention is to maintain the pound at a low level:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8c92972-a8ef-11de-b8bd-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

[Sprogster]

NormanH, you are absolutely correct in that it now clearly apparent that a cornerstone of UK Government and Bank of England economic policy is to pursue competitive devaluation by actively talking down the £, as everytime the £ shows any strength Mervyn King intervenes to talk the currency down.

For anyone thinking of moving to France who will be reliant on a £ income, you need to be budgeting at Euro to the £ parity being the best case scenerio for the forseable future. I personally believe the £ could go well below parity, as with the current idiots in charge, a £ crisis is increasingly likely.

[Jay]

[quote user="Gluestick"]

.................. the ECB will soon be compelled to take significant corrective action.

I did forecast that the £ : € would in all probability settle at around £= €1.45 by July and have not changed that view.

[/quote]

Come on Gluestick, give us another one of your forecasts we need cheering up.

[Clair]

http://www.completefrance.com/cs/forums/3/1701520/ShowPost.aspx

But Gluestick did not say which year, did he? [:P]

[Quillan]

I just hope that dragonrouge is good for the money he has to pay my charity on the 26th December (I predicted the Euro wouldn't go above 1.25 for the rest of 2009). I am sorry to see that my prediction of it stabilizing around 1.16 seems to be wrong, it looks like it will be lower although I not so sure about it going below parity but then what do I know? As somebody said I only read Tarot cards (actually tea leaves but it seems to be producing more accurate results than the financial guys at the moment) [:P] .

I was trying to find the source for the, what appears to be urban myth, statement that parity automatically means the UK joins the Euro, I couldn't find it but I did find THIS which makes interesting reading. I particularly liked these bits in the FAQ.

Is it just a matter of synchronising our economic cycle with that of the euro zone?

No. The UK's relative prosperity, with higher growth and lower unemployment, has been the result of government policies, including interest rates and taxation regimes, and not just an accident of the economic cycle. Ken Clarke, Gordon Brown, and Eddie George can reasonably claim some of the credit for this. Also, the willingness of New labour to continue in much the same direction as the previous Conservative government gave an important element of stability.

Well that one is blown out the water as is another I found in the same place.

Will the UK need to devalue in order to join the euro?

Very probably. Indeed, although sterling's level is not one of the five tests as such, it seems that the level will have to play an important part in the decision. There are suggestions that there would need to be a fall of about 30% against the euro. Though there would also be a fall against the dollar (in which most commodities are priced). There would then be a risk of inflation, and we would not be able to use interest rates as a corrective, unless by chance the EU bank thought that what was necessary to correct our particular situation was also suitable for the rest of the euro zone. The best situation would be for the euro to strengthen while the pound retains its value against foreign currencies. If the fall in sterling took place prior to joining, the necessary measures to deal with the resulting inflation would move Britain further away from the euro zone average.

OK I know it was written a while back but looking at it now it seems the UK has fallen a long way under 'New Labour' from when they inherited it.

I also see on this mornings news that GB has been blanked by Obama and not getting to meet him this weekend. I wonder if Obama is sulking coz GB got a gold star for saving the world economy. All joking aside current British politics and its attitude to the current problems reminds me of the orchestra on the Titanic, playing away while the boat sinks but with one major difference. They seem to be out of tune with each other and the people they are suppose to represent aka the British public.

I also found an article predicting a load of Euroland people holidaying in the UK next year, more than ever before. Being in the 'hospitality' business myself (Ok I know its only a B&B[;-)]) and what with the price of property being so low in the UK (a French guy at the Boule club has just bought a holiday home cheap in Kent [8-)] ) now might be a good time to buy a small run down hotel cheap in the UK, do it up and wait for them to arrive.

[Jako]

Don't hope for a swift switch to the Euro. The UK simply does not qualify to be allowed in.

The budget deficit must be below 3% ( from >12%!)  and inflation must be close to the Euro zone for several years.

It

will take many years for the UK to qualify again and then it will still

take a few more years in which the UK economy has to prove it is stable

enough. Poland will qualify sooner...