The pound is on the brink

[tom.daniel]

see below, explains alot

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLQ20293120090826

[Alan Zoff]

as does this

https://www.emoneyfacts.co.uk/news/todayspapers.aspx?newsarticleid=188683

[Chancer]

I thought that I would post again if for no better reason than to edit the title which appears to have changed over the course of the thread.

Can someone please post a link to some positive news that might reverse the current continuing downwards trend?

I waited till the pound appeared to be steady at what was then 1.18 before placing my large order for block paving only to find that the manufacturers answer to la crise was to implement a 10% increase, effectively wiped out any saving. 

Now I have to wait (and wait and wait..........) for a delivery, sometime, somewhere in the future whilst the pound continues to fall and no i didnt/couldnt/wouldnt pay up front.

[Alan Zoff]

BREAKING NEWS:  World's biggest ever oil find discovered beneath Sussex

Will that help?

[Braco]

Only if the Kimberly diamond field is also found to stretch into Kent.

[Kitty]

Or Gordon Brown was to call a general election?

[JMB]

But will the fake tories under "call me Dave" do any better. They will inherit a mountain of debt with very lefty liberal policies. The uk will sink even further until it is taken over by the Sulanate of Somewhere. There is only one answer, bring back Maggie. [:D]

Ps the pound is 1.1362 this am.

[tom.daniel]

I think it could be a long road back to 1.18, some 'experts' are mentioning the 0.90 level again (EURGBP) which is 1.1111

[Quillan]

Like I said about the last election the next one is also one you don't want to win. Unfortunately the Tories will and probably the one after that as well.

I don't think the pound will do much better than 1.16 as an average in the coming 12 months, something I suggested at the beginning of the year and seems to be roughly right. One of the reasons for such a bad rate could also be the debt that the UK has and its crazy spending plans. Already GB is trying to stuff the next government by announcing the new high speed rail link from London to Scotland, a total of 39 billion which no doubt will double (by the time all the public enquiries have finished) by the time its finished in 10 years time. Of course thats only one example but it is the biggest

The only way out of this debt is to stop spending, France and Germany has proved this. In a way MT was right, if you don't have the money you can't spend it and spending money it has not got is something the current government are experts at. The other thing is for politicians to be honest and instead of hitting the most vulnerable with stealth tax's is to increase the 20% and above tax rates by and extra 5p in the pound whilst re-introducing the 10p tax rate for those less well off. This will not be popular but at least the cost will be out in the open and everyone will know what its for. Once the debt is paid off the rate can go back to as it is now. One way not to go is the Tobin Tax which Lord Turner wants the world to instigate against banking and industry. Why should the world contribute to fixing the problems of GB's over spend. Its like me getting an overdraft and asking all you lot to pay it off for me, I rather think you would all tell me to bog off, bloody cheek.

No more boom and bust said GB, he is right, its just bust without the boom.

[Devon]

[quote user="Quillan"]

. One way not to go is the Tobin Tax which Lord Turner wants the world to instigate against banking and industry. Why should the world contribute to fixing the problems of GB's over spend. Its like me getting an overdraft and asking all you lot to pay it off for me, I rather think you would all tell me to bog off, bloody cheek[/quote]

Any thing that sorts out the cancer of Greed in the city is a good thing in my books and will have to be addressed in the future if not now. Surely the £1.3 trillion pounds of Tax payers money propping up the financial institutions is the same as paying off a greedy corrupt systems 'overdraft'? The bad banks should have been told to bog off and been nationalised IMHO

[Quillan]

Yes but it would not just be on the banks it would also be on industry as well. Its industry that gives the jobs, that pays the tax's. You might even find that some large scale industries move out of one country in to another to bypass the tax. Imagine if all the Japanese car companies pulled out of the UK for example.

[ali-cat]

[quote user="Quillan"][quote user="Jay"]

Recession in Britain 'at an end'

So why has the exchange rate dropped to 1.147?

[/quote]

Thats a bit misleading and not actual. What the first sentence said was "Confidence among business professionals has surged, suggesting the recession is at an end, a survey has said." The article says it talked to over 1000 Chartered Accountants in England, Scotland and Wales, that's about 1% so its not a true representation of them all.

It does not say that the recession is actually at an end which is why the rate did not improve. You will know when it does because the exchange rate will hit around 1.20 Euros to the pound.

 

[/quote]

Hate to be pedantic Quillan but probabilty theory 101 tells you that a sample of 1,000 is plenty big enough to get an accurate headline estimate regardless of the population size - IF properly selected.  By way of analogy, if you put three parts white sand and one part black sand in bucket and mixed it thoroughly then a teaspoon full will give you an accurate estimate of the proportions. You could fill a skip in the same way and a teaspoon full is still sufficient.[;-)]

Mr Cat

 

 

[Quillan]

That would be true in normal life but you can't get two accountants singing of the same song sheet so what chance with a thousand [:)]. To use your analogy it would be like putting a mustard spoonful of black sand in to a skip load of white.

[Gastines]

After reading "Sepulchre" I suggest Quillan finds the "Tarot Cards". Perhaps we can then see what the future holds for the pound. After reading all the comments on here it seems the answer my friends, is blowing in the wind.

Regards.

[Quillan]

[quote user="Gastines"]After reading "Sepulchre" I suggest Quillan finds the "Tarot Cards". Perhaps we can then see what the future holds for the pound. After reading all the comments on here it seems the answer my friends, is blowing in the wind. Regards.[/quote]

Tarot Cards my @rse, just a bit of old fashioned common sense something sadly lacking in the UK financial sector and labour party. If anyone thinks the pound will get over 1.25 Euros by the end of this year they should give up and go home. I see GB is just about to shaft the poor even more by stealing £15 a week off them (BBC midday news). Good news for tractors though, they are building 85 a week now in Basildon. Trouble is the staff can't park their cars because the staff carpark is still full of unwanted tractors.

[dragonrouge]

Dear Quillon a bet if the £ does not go over 1.25 by the 31 of December I will give £50 to your charity. If it does achieve let us say 1.26 or more you donate £50 to mine.

[Quillan]

[quote user="dragonrouge"]Dear Quillon a bet if the £ does not go over 1.25 by the 31 of December I will give £50 to your charity. If it does achieve let us say 1.26 or more you donate £50 to mine.[/quote]

I'll take that bet with one small change, call it 50 Euros as I have no sterling anywhere. Equal too or above 1.26 by midnight European (French) time by the 31st December 2009. Would you like the name of my charity now? [:D]

QUILLAN [;-)]

[Jako]

Easy money, too bad it is worthless...[:P]

[Quillan]

[quote user="Jako"]Easy money, too bad it is worthless...[:P]
[/quote]

So worthless that the BRIC countries who have the fastest growing economies in the world want to move from the dollar to the Euro for international business.

[Jako]

In mean worthless pound naturally. Your 50 Euro might equal 100 Pound and 100 Dollar by December.[:D]

[Scooby]

[quote user="Jako"]In mean worthless pound naturally. Your 50 Euro might equal 100 Pound and 100 Dollar by December.[:D]

[/quote]

I hope so - we'd sell up in France and make a mint.  We already made nearly £100k on the exchange rate movements to date...  We could buy several Cornish thatched cottages with the proceeds and then retire on the income - with decent food and decent English pubs nearby [;-)]

[velcorin]

[quote user="Quillan"]

[quote user="Jako"]Easy money, too bad it is worthless...[:P]
[/quote]

So worthless that the BRIC countries who have the fastest growing economies in the world want to move from the dollar to the Euro for international business.

[/quote]

 

Keep hearing this one, strange thing is though that all of our BRIC customers are billed in USD, and never heard a dickybird from them about changing the billing currency. (BRIC T/O is about USD 6billion), as all our costs are in EUR, we have a vested interest in getting them converted. Some saddo journos flying kites? However, economically it would be in the interests of the US to ditch the doller as the defacto world currency. The doller would fall in value by about 20-30%. As the importer of last resort, the US would benefit hugely longterm, if the world switched to the Euro, as it would weaken the doller, and significantly strengthen the Euro. The Eurozone becomes the importer of last resort. Lots of dead Mittelstands, Weiner Republic unemployment, Poland better look out! [:)]

NB your GBP pensions would be worth even less, as GBP (and YEN) would follow the USD down.

 

[NormanH]

Is the 'doller' the same currency as that known by non-experts as the 'dollar' ?

[velcorin]

Correct. Sorry, can't rember the last time I wrote USD in words [:D], same for EUR, YEN and GBP. That's what SAP uses, so that's what everyone I know uses. Lack of pratice and spelling ability I'm afraid.

[baypond]

Brazil and China have a trade agreement to be based in Renminbi announced recently.

On the US$, seigniorage is a big earner for the FED which would be lost as US$ notes in circulation throughout the world reduced.

Seigniorage explanation

'Today the Federal Reserve controls the money supply. And one of the

ways it does this is by buying or selling treasury bills. If the Fed

wants to increase the money supply, it buys some treasury bills

(government bonds) from banks. So a treasury bill is taken out of

circulation and replaced, basically, with dollars. Presto. More dollars

in the world.

Here's the key part: more dollars in circulation means more treasury bills at the Fed. And unlike dollars, the treasury bills earn interest.

So the Fed profits. It's holding onto those treasury bills, which pay

off with interest. Basically, when you hold onto U.S. cash, you're

giving the Federal Reserve an interest-free loan'