JMB Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Was Bugsy was. Now that Broon and his little darling have brought the economy to the level of Somalia, that will be no more. Wait until the rating gets downgraded and the Broon gang carries on sabotaging the country, then the pound will plumb new depths. [:D] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daft Doctor Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 JMB, I can't really see the pessimism that takes the pound all the way down to parity against the Euro. When even when the pound was being sold off like billio around Xmas, it still didn't make it. As neither a financial expert or an overoptimist, it seems to me that the pound has settled into a new trading range against the Euro, somewhere between 1.165 - 1.185. Bad news pushes it towards the bottom, relative good news towards the top, simple as that. If you look at the trend over the last 6 months though, there has been a steady climb for the pound. If you consider the problems with some of the eurozone economies (Spain and Ireland) for example, and the exposure of former eastern block economies now adopting the Euro, why should the pound plummet all the way back to parity? What it it that is so GOOD about the Euro that would make that happen. Nothing I think. The pound was heavily oversold before Xmas and my gut feeling is that ultimately when the dust settles 1.25 will end up being about right (as it was during much of 2008). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom.daniel Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 thankyou daft doctor for some sense There is ne real t'true value' for the pound against the Euro, and if there is it isnt above 1.50 or below parity. As you said the pound was being sold stupidly around xmas and still didnt make it. I had a report form my broker this morning saying the same thinga about the current range of 1.1650/1.1850, heading towards 1.20. I think it is safe to say thta we have seen a bottom in place, but the days of 1.30+ are still a VERY long way away im afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMB Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Ouch I've been out for a few hours and find my name has been taken in vain (sp?). Bugsy it's 1.7 US dollars to the pound not the euro that is mooted as equilibrium. It is the relationship between the pound and the dollar and the euro and the dollar that counts - that's why the value of the dollar to the pound and euro is so important. Daft Doctor I never said the pound will reach parity with the euro; however, I have no doubt the pound will eventually (months or years not weeks) reach parity with the euro and when that happens the case for Britain dropping the pound and adopting the euro will become very strong IMHO.Just looked at the charts - wow the pound has taken a beating this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daft Doctor Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 JMB, I don't know what charts you are looking at, but interbank rate as of now is 1.1724 (mid price). That's the same as it was yesterday (more or less), in the middle of the trading range I referred to earlier, and that is despite so called 'bad news' x 3 for the £ today. Where is your referred to 'beating' the pound has taken, is it against the dollar, cause it's certainly not against the Euro that's for sure! Just why do you think that parity between pound and euro is inevitable at some point, and as I said earlier, what is it that is so good about the euro to make parity with the pound any sort of possibility?By the way, certainly haven't intended to take anyone's name in vain, but you did make quite a strong statement of opinion and I thought it necessary to question the logic behind it. No offence meant, just interesting debate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianagain Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 [quote user="John Martin BRADLEY"]Wow the pound just fell substantially off the back of three lots of bad news so all the gains made this morning have been lost. The UK Current Account is much worse than expected. [/quote]I see that that FTSE 100 declined by 1.04% today on the back of bad news, while the CAC (France) and DAX (German) exchanges only declined by 1.67% and 1.56%. The Dow Jones has only declined 1.31% so far today so I guess bad news is all relative in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom.daniel Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Its all from the UK GDP surprising the market, the thing to remember is that the market moves quickly when it is surprised, which we saw yesterday, it is below 1.17 this morning, but the important thing is that it is still in the same trading range, holding above 1.1650 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacqui Too Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 [quote user="John Martin BRADLEY"]Ouch I've been out for a few hours and find my name has been taken in vain (sp?). Bugsy it's 1.7 US dollars to the pound not the euro that is mooted as equilibrium. It is the relationship between the pound and the dollar and the euro and the dollar that counts - that's why the value of the dollar to the pound and euro is so important. Daft Doctor I never said the pound will reach parity with the euro; however, I have no doubt the pound will eventually (months or years not weeks) reach parity with the euro and when that happens the case for Britain dropping the pound and adopting the euro will become very strong IMHO.Just looked at the charts - wow the pound has taken a beating this afternoon.[/quote]John Martin BRADLEY I think you think 'Bugsy' and 'Daft Doctor' are refering to you! There is an other poster 'JMB' in this thread and it is them that they are refering to not you![:)] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMB Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Thank you for pointing that out Jacqui - I shall try and read the threads a little more diligently in future. [:)] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chancer Posted July 1, 2009 Author Share Posted July 1, 2009 All of these massive moves, the pound taking a beating or in my own words spanking, arent they in reality the normal peturbations of market trading?During this period the pound has only swayed around + or - 1p from its median, pretty much the same as when it was €1.44 but I for one wasnt watching it like a hawk then.Or were these moves somewhat faster than usual? When I posted my spanking comment it did seem to have dropped like a stone but not in fact very far, I have since changed the timescale of the chart which makes things look calmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMB Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Daft Doctor. No offence taken. You can view forex charts from any number of sources. I found these at fxstreet.com (I don't use any of them so can't comment on quality etc) http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/ If you look at yesterday's 60 minute euro pound chart, you will see what I mean about the pound taking a beating versus the euro. It made a strong gain early in the day and then lost it after the bad news came out and so ended up pretty much where it started. For me the big thing is that the pound made a significant break through a key level of resistance against the US dollar - ie it broke out of a trading range. Had the pound not been knocked back into touch after the bad news, then we may have seen it leg it upwards against both the dollar and the euro. I tend to look at the last two of four decimal points, so a large change at this level may be insignificant or non-existent if you are looking at only the first two decimal points (I'm not saying you are by the way). FYI currency related news releases and their impact/significance can be seen at forexfactory.com in the calendar section.Hope that sheds some light on my "strong statement of opinion". [:D] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMB Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 JR perhaps changing the timescale of one's life is a key to calmer life - how zen is that![geek] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin Posted July 21, 2009 Share Posted July 21, 2009 Sterling crisis? Interest rates may ultimately have to rise?http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/markets-companies-and-funds/content.aspx?ID=350387&re=6256&ea=161021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint Posted July 21, 2009 Share Posted July 21, 2009 [quote user="John Martin BRADLEY"]JR perhaps changing the timescale of one's life is a key to calmer life - how zen is that![geek][/quote]Ah, JMB, I know you are some whizz kid with the old Forex stuff (not that I properly understood any of your well constructed arguments [:(]) but I'd no idea you were a philosopher as well.Changing the "timescale of one's life"...........it might just be, however, that that is out of one's hands entirely![:D] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom.daniel Posted July 22, 2009 Share Posted July 22, 2009 [quote user="Benjamin"]Sterling crisis? Interest rates may ultimately have to rise?http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/markets-companies-and-funds/content.aspx?ID=350387&re=6256&ea=161021[/quote]That sounds like a bit of scaremongering to me really! we have know for a long time that UK public sector finances are in a bit of a mess, this isnt new news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG MAC Posted July 22, 2009 Share Posted July 22, 2009 Public Service Announcement ......If you people would like to conduct your £ € exchanges now then you may avoid the plummetting rate as I attempt to exchange mine at the end of the week!...There is a Law and S. Aweds wrote it! Thank you for your kind attention and now some music................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprogster Posted July 22, 2009 Share Posted July 22, 2009 Spot rate is back at 1.16, so much of a nothing really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin Posted July 22, 2009 Share Posted July 22, 2009 [quote user="Benjamin"]Here's a bit more about it.http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/markets-companies-and-funds/content.aspx?ID=342079&re=5633&ea=161021But remember, this is just one scribes musings' on the exchange rate.[/quote]Of course you can ignore everything that's written and live in absolute bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin Posted July 22, 2009 Share Posted July 22, 2009 [quote user="Sprogster"]Spot rate is back at 1.16, so much of a nothing really![/quote]I do like your spot rate. Where did you get that from?http://forex.tradingcharts.com/charts/index.php?sym=GBPEUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom.daniel Posted July 22, 2009 Share Posted July 22, 2009 I agree, spot has'nt been above 1.1580 all day!!MPC minutesbetter than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 1.1732 earlier today! Can this be right or am I hallucinating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anton Redman Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 [quote user="sweet 17"]1.1732 earlier today! Can this be right or am I hallucinating?[/quote]As soon as Brown's attempt to hold back the tide and plat a rope of sand comes to an end we will return to a situation in which you can borrow at just above bank rate and earn just below bank rate on savings. At that pint I think we will be close to € 1,.30 to the pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom.daniel Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 i wouldnt hold you breath for 1.30, im pretty hopeful of 1.20 in a few months, but i need to send some money, so maybe wishful thinking!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsnips Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 Hi, They're at it again! Just as the pound is showing signs of sustained recovery, the BOE unexpectedly dumps an extra £50Bn of "printed money"into the economy and drives it down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 You're right, Parsnips. Don't you wish you could just sort of garrotte them and choke the breath out of them so that they can't make any more announcements?Now, I'm NOT a violent woman but..................[6] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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