French House Price Inflation

[Albert the InfoGipsy]

[quote user="Ian"]Go long on Japanese yen, silver, uranium and Berlin property.  If crude oil breaks resistance at $86, primary trend has reversed so go short.
[/quote]

I love it when you talk dirty!

[Logan]

[quote user="Ian"]
Don't forget: if you laid all the world's economic forcasters end to end you still wouldn't reach a conclusion!
[/quote]

But it might, just might, help you make a few bob. Like the Lottery you have to be in it to win it.

[Gastines]

Not too sure about the selling  of older properties slowing down,it must obviously relate to the area but 6 UK couples have sold within a few months in our area within Dinard/Dinan/St.Malo and Dol de Bretagne.  4 being older granit built  large setups.,2 others being about 20 years old.So it's not all doom and gloom for the sellers!!

Perhaps the UK appeal for land,unavailable to most of us in the UK, has now changed and us older folk like to be near all services and families need to think what their children are going to get out of it.

We are on our 4th house here in Brittany and although our first was about 25kms away,we definately made the right move by being near St.Malo. Virtually everything on our doorstep,countyside/sea,beaches/the Rance/Dinan/Dinard and Rennes only45mins away. Docs,dentist,hospital/choice of plenty of shops supermarkets/about 100 restaurants[still trying a few new ones] only thing missing at the moment is a bit more sunshine but being EnglishI have to complain about something.

Regards.

[mint]

Gastines

You forgot to mention being near Cancale!  [:D]

[just john]

[blink] We are in a similar position to WJT and were going to transfer more sterling over a few months back for our renovations and decided to wait a while. A mistake in hindsight perhaps but we can wait. We now are hesitant in going forward with finishing the renovations. Whilst it may not ultimately change our position with our house in France, (we won't be selling it!)... but I'm sure it will make a difference to all the suppliers and artisans that might have been earning from it and I'm sure that we won't be the only ones, I wonder what effect it will have on the local economies?

[8-|]

Don’t worry about the future;
or know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubblegum.

The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind;

the kind that blindside you at 4pm on some idle Tuesday.

sometimes you’re ahead, sometimes you’re behind…the race is long, and in the end, it’s only with yourself.

[WJT]

John and Sue, sorry to hear you are in the same boat. [:(] I was hasty in my post in regards to us re-thinking France at the moment, we had been discussing our options the night before with much disappointment. We will not be selling our house in France either but as you, will wait to see what will happen with the value of sterling to the euro. If things stay at this level or worse long term, we will unfortunately seriously have to re-think our plans, but we are doing nothing at the moment.

As far as the local artisans, the ones around our part of France still seem to be very busy. There are loads of new pavillons/bungalows  being built all over the department, in fact they are popping up all around us, literally. [:(]

[Gardian]

[quote user="WJT"]

There are loads of new pavillons/bungalows  being built all over the department, in fact they are popping up all around us, literally. [:(]

[/quote]

They may be being built, but have they been sold ?

[groslard]

As I have posted before, I expect new builds to keep steady, because of the rising costs of material.

The value of older properties depends on demand.

With the problems in the UK economy, and the fall in sterling I expect the price of these older properties to fall 20%

It is no use quoting even the recent past. The effects of the UK crisis are just beginnng to work their way into the system

For an informed view look at this video

[Panda]

I've noticed that there seems to be a huge gap in between the properties that are being advertised on the UK centric sites and those that are being searched for on the same forums. 

Example from this morning:

Properties for Sales lists about 20 proprieties on for over 450k,

The only adverts under wanted are again around 20 stating a budget of between 150k and 250k.

I think there has been a shift in what people are searching for but not old to new, more big and expensive to average and affordable. 

 

[Logan]

[quote user="groslard"]I expect the price of these older properties to fall 20%
 
[/quote]

Since the costs of building materials for new build houses are rising 12% year on year, rising labour costs around 5% and building land in good supply I don't expect much of a fall. Rather at very worst remain static and the inflated cost borne by the building and supply companies at least for a while. 20% falls look over done to me.

[WJT]

[quote user="Gardian"][quote user="WJT"]

There are loads of new pavillons/bungalows  being built all over the department, in fact they are popping up all around us, literally. [:(]

[/quote]

They may be being built, but have they been sold ?

[/quote]

The ones I know about around us, surprisingly yes, but I wouldn't know about all of the rest, there are many.

I have to say that from what I have seen, it is the opposite of what has been said about the higher priced properties. It appears that the luxury end seems to be moving. I can think of three examples that I have seen recently, one being one of our neighbours.

They have a magnificent house albeit not huge about 300 square meters but the situation isn't ideal even though they have a wonderful view and pool over one side. They listed it for 1.2m and we were told over Christmas from our farmer neighbour his sister is an estate agent that they sold it for 1 million just after a few months of putting it on. [:-))] We thought it couldn't be worth more than 600,000 for the situation alone. A French family bought it from somewhere in the NW. Perhaps it could be like in London, where the luxury market is still thriving.

By the way, I know I sound like a nosey neighbour but this is something that others told us about without us asking. Obviously, a house sale by a neighbour is a big talking point around here. [:)]

[jon]

WJT where are you based?

[Alan Zoff]

Don't know if there is a similar site in France but nosey-Parkers in UK can find out - for free - what properties have really sold for at http://www.ourproperty.co.uk

Asking prices often bear little resemblance to actual selling prices, especially when selling conditions get tough.

 

[cooperlola]

Tee hee, Alan!  Our house has been re-sold since for less than we got for it.  I call that a result!

[Alan Zoff]

What's the French for schadenfreude?

[cooperlola]

[quote user="Alan Zoff"]What's the French for schadenfreude?[/quote]You're right.  I guess I'm just watching the value of my pension going down the tubes at the moment, and needed a lift.[:$]

[Alan Zoff]

Don't even get me started on pensions. I trusted those decent people at Equitable Life to look after mine but I stupidly thought they were going to look after it for me.

[cooperlola]

[quote user="Alan Zoff"]Don't even get me started on pensions. I trusted those decent people at Equitable Life to look after mine but I stupidly thought they were going to look after it for me.[/quote]In my case it's just £v€ stuff and that's bad enough, without anything else.  Tough times all around.

[Panda]

Despite the odd rich one in WJT's neck of the woods, I still think there seems to be a large difference between the houses and prices people are trying to sell at and the price range that new arrivees are trying to buy at.  Houses do seem to be hanging around for longer and longer, there is one such house on AI which has been dropped by 130k yet has been for sale for 2 years.

I think that there are still lots of people coming over but fewer and fewer are taking on properties that claim to have an income on which they will need to seek a mortgage, perhaps they have learnt that you can't live on income from gites or B& B alone as well as support a family and pay a mortgage and there can't be that many people coming over with 500k+ cash.

[WJT]

Oh come on, not to wish anyone else a hard time but there is nothing wrong with someone be happy with getting it right at the right time for a change. Well done Cooperlola. [:)]

Jon, we are in the Perigord Noir in Dordogne. However, it certainly isn't just here that this is happening. One I know of through friends has recently sold after a short time in the Gers for example, it is more of a chateau though but surprised nonetheless. It is funny because I noticed the below is under offer as well. I posted a thread about it a while back about trying to use sex to sell it and apparently it worked! [:-))] Not only did they sell it but appears another house with it at 975,000 euros versus the original 670,000 listing on the site I had referred to.

I know this really doesn't say too much, just surprised under the circumstances. But as mentioned luxury sales are meant to still be buoyant in London and from what I understand even in Spain they are selling. I for one don't understand any of it. [8-)]

http://www.completefrance.com/cs/forums/1091284/ShowPost.aspx

http://www.sifex.co.uk/Propertyresults.asp

Edit: Panda, I have just seen your post and I agree with the comments about properties staying on the market. In our neck of the woods, there is no doubt it s a buyers market. When we bought back in summer 04, there was very little and most were way over priced. Now there are loads of beautiful properties for sale at good prices and perhaps those prices will be reduced further. It is definitely a buyers market here and has been for a long while. I have noticed there are a few properties still for sale from when we were looking! [blink]

This is the main reason of surprise to see the more top end going so quickly.

[Benjamin]

There are some 800 souls in our commune.

We have been here for just short of three years and in that time we've seen one private development of 29 plots sold and built upon.

A further municipal development of 22 plots priced at 32€ per metre sold out before it was advertised and is now almost complete and a further development of what looks like being about 40 private plots are just going on the market.

At a rough guess I'd say that represents about a 20-25% increase in the communes's housing stock and all selling very quickly.

[Gastines]

A block of flats on the front at St.Malo, due for completion 2009, sold 70% within the first week of release at a record price per metre for the entire area. Perhaps the TGV has made an impact, on sales that is.

Regards.

 

[Effie]

I think you are quite correct.  In our area (Dordogne) according to a good friend who is also an estate agent, there are now more properties on the market for longer (especially the old stone variety favoured by the Brits).  The concerns over the euro exchange rate and the global markets in general are having an impact on sales in this area. 

[AnOther]

[quote user="Effie"]...there are now more properties on the market for longer (especially the old stone variety favoured by the Brits).[/quote]

IMO the problem with restored stone properties, especially those restored by Brits, are twofold.

Firstly, they can be way too personalised. Mostly they will have been bought either for holiday homes or permanant occupation which dictates the style and decor which can often not be to a potential buyers taste and therefore they have to either live with something thay don't like or budget for ripping out and replacing often virtually brand new kitchens and/or bathrooms.

Secondly, from some which we saw whilst house hunting, the level of finish can leave a lot to be desired. Many would be restorers either over estimate their capabilities or run out of money to pay for work to be done professionally. Then of course there are the houses totally wired and plumbed with 13a sockets and 15/22mm pipe [:'(]

In both cases both UK and French buyers can be put off.

I wonder how many Brit restored properties ever get sold back to the French ?

[Logan]

[quote user="ErnieY"]

I wonder how many Brit restored properties ever get sold back to the French ?

[/quote]

French estate agents usually target British resale owned properties to potential British/Dutch buyers. They know British tastes do not appeal to French people. So if the Brit market dries up selling gets much more difficult.