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Logan

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Everything posted by Logan

  1. My feeling is unless the ECB drastically slash Eurozone interest rates in the New Year then the EU economy will seriously stagnate.

    Unemployment has risen almost everywhere in Europe and having one of the strongest currencies in the world is making the situation worse.

    A 1% reduction should help Sterling a little but with demand falling off a cliff almost everywhere I think this recession might just be one of the worst yet. I know that's contrary to one of my previous opinions but the data I am reading today makes for grim reading.

    Happy New Year!
  2. Where ever did this attitude of "they chose to leave the UK to live in another country so they should not expect any help" come from?

    Putting aside the 'help' matter for a moment leaving one EU country to live in another does not mean you have 'abandoned' anything. It simply means you have relocated. You are still a British citizen with all the rights that status affords.

    A major principle of the EU is the free movement of capital and labour for it's citizens. Rights continue wherever you live.

    Financial help on the other hand is governed by domestic law. Which is incidentally outdated and unfair in UK.

    Danish citizens for example receive the same benefits wherever they live in the EU as if they still lived in Denmark.

    It is just plain wrong to accuse someone of abandoning their native state just because they choose to live somewhere else.
  3. The present crisis had no resemblance to the 1928 Wall Street crash and subsequent depression. There have been many other serious recessions which always seem the worst of the worst until they are over. Currently I don't rate this one much more than the others which happened for slightly different reasons. Recessions are part of the capitalist economic cycle. Politicians call it boom and bust. The idea that they have the power to end it is simply dishonest.

    I can't write here the reasons for my analysis Devon it would bore you and the forum witless.

    I agree with Alan that there has been a serious failure of regulation in both the US and UK. However when the regulators fail to do their job the market does it for them with the more severe consequences we suffer from currently..
  4. I have read this thread with interest and increasing amusement. Interest because I am interested in money on an international level and amusement because most of you seem to watch too much television.

    Politicians cannot control money or markets in the twenty first century. Money/markets are affected by global circumstance. Politicians on the television pretend to their electorate that they are doing something. Hands on the tiller, Captain Brown or Bush in charge. It's all intended illusion.

    Brown thinks he can save the world by borrowing hideous sums of money only to stack up debt for the next government who win power and a new generation of employees who will have to pay it all back through much higher taxation.

    His and Bush’s policies are doomed to fail. Keynes and his economics belong in the past not this present day.

    Even Central Bankers are completely neutered in the new situation. The ECB are still behind the curve holding on fast to a principle and illusion that a strong currency will see them through. Interest rates have ceased to mean very much in global economies and the words or intentions of politicos even less. Rates round the world will drop to near zero and have virtually little effect on anything.

    The world’s industrial capitalist nations need to journey through a period of retrenchment and reorganisation. So emerging fitter and leaner for the challenges waiting for us all. There is pain now and pain in the short to medium term. However long term I expect our economies to rebound.

    The world will be a different place in economic terms then. However I expect the USA to still dominate, China to struggle, Russia to be enveloped in economic stagnation and Europe to grind slowly on. The UK should be responsive to these necessary changes as financial services slowly respond to a low global valued currency.

    Happy 2009 to all those investors who ran for cover a year ago.

  5. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01106/obama-mccain_1106614c.jpg

    I think the white guy has it in the bag. The black man never stood a chance.
  6. In my view a capital investment in Sterling is preferable at the moment to one in Euros. Moving your Sterling now into Euros will attract an immediate 20% depreciation on the exchange value of 12 months ago. It may now be some time before that value returns but return it will. In the meantime if you don't need your capital in Euros a comfortable sterling investment should gain 6% annually. That may drop slightly as interest rates fall but the pro-rata rate in Europe will also do the same.

    Trust is a subjective word but if you have no 'trust' in financial institutions keeping your cash 'under the bed' is the only option. Not a oood idea.
  7. Yes Cathy but what has happened to the principals of European integration? Were we not supposed to enjoy equality and services from our home state whilst living in another EU members?

    As usual 'all me eye and Peggy Martin.' Governments within the EU do one thing whilst the political philosophers who inhabit the ivory towers of Brussels think in another and create useless treaties which help and benefit no one.
  8. I do not think the outcome of the US election will effect the Sterling/Euro rate very much. The Dollar has strengthened recently because market sentiment thinks recovery will come to the US sooner than the Eurozone. Unless you really need to change your Sterling holdings now, I would keep it where it is. You should earn 6% on capital in UK as opposed to 4% in Euros.
  9. Personally I would not touch them with a bargepole. Impossible to make contact with a person, impossible to get replies to letters or e mails. No help, no hope.

    The worst days work I ever did changing to Neuf. I am now back with Orange but Neuf keep taking money from my bank account. I have had to pay now to stop them but getting the dosh back is impossible.

    I keep asking myself why I thought it was a good idea to give up my phone line. Doh!
  10. There is an awful lot of unjustified panic around at the moment. This loss of confidence is financial institutions in my opinion is completely daft. Ask yourself has any bank depositor lost a single penny? Even with Northern Rock when Brown/Darling dithered for weeks nobody lost anything and nobody is going to lose anything. French Financial institutions are completely sound.
  11. The French government recently introduced legislation to try and prevent illegal downloading from peer to peer web sites. Basically if you are identified as having illegally downloaded material on three occasions the ISP has to disconnect your internet connection. A government monitoring unit has been set up for the purpose. The theory is you get two written warnings before being cut off.

    Now the EU Parliment has voted by a substantial margin to makes the 'three strikes and your out' policy illegal.

    It will be interesting to see what the French now decide to do. My best guess is they will ignore it along with many other EU directives. This policy was one of Sarkozy's priorities on coming to office. Why? Most of his political party's financial backers during the election belong to the music and entertainment industry.
  12. Logan

    Loans?

    www.gemoneybank.fr

    www.cofinoga.com

    www.cofidis.com

    Plus about 10 other companies offering the same.

    Better to ask your bank.
  13. Reading this item helps to confirm my belief that my fellow specie are in the main completely stupid and lacking common sense.
  14. Mortgages are difficult to obtain in France at the moment. Banks operate in global markets. Credit Agricole has lost close to 7 billion euros to sub-prime and seen profits plunge by 95%. Also French banks are no different to any other in that they obtain a large percentage of their lending funds from other banks. Those banks have shut the doors. Credit globally is closed for business. In my view it's likely to be like that for some time.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e9f61b4-74d2-11dd-ab30-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

  15. [quote user="Speedy"] The right comes with being able to meet your responsabilities [/quote]

    I worry when I start to read about 'rights' in this context. What is 'right' in my opinion is if it works well for you.

    Financial risk is an integral part of modern life. Venture capitalism will not work without it. Too much control and regulation stifles incentive and effort. Without capitalism you have a socialist state with a command economy. I know which I prefer.

    When risk pays off I never hear the doom sayers saying 'I told you so'. I believe risk should be rewarded but if it fails you have to dust yourself off and start again. Persistence in my experience usually brings reward. Capitalism will always create highs and lows. At the moment we are approaching a low. However it will turn and those individuals who survived their risk will prosper.
  16. The French property market is already heavily regulated. Much more so than the UK although that may change as a result of recent events.

    In many EU countries such as France and Germany property ownership is not such an individual aspiration as the UK. Renting property is more the norm. In order to have a healthy private rental market investors need incentives. If you choke off that incentive such as capital appreciation investors will go elsewhere. That will create housing shortages which will need to be met by taxation.

    Property needs to rise in value on an annual basis. Not the crazy values seen recently in UK but greater than simply investing in a bank and more than the inflation percentage.
  17. [quote user="Sprogster"] a bit tricky I would imagine for those who are 'perpetual tourists', as those with no permanent tax abode are sometimes termed![/quote]

    The correct term is 'fiscal nomad' and a jolly useful thing it was until the EU came along and stopped it. It allowed non residents 91 days in any world state. Providing you kept to the rules you could escape income tax of any kind, anywhere. It was abolished along with the news rules of off shore investments being liable for tax. The banks have to follow EU directives and legal tax avoidance is now very difficult. Unless you have a very smart accountant.

    My bank asks me for a copy of my avis d'impot sur revenus every year. I have been a French resident for years but it makes no difference.
  18. So presumably Speedy you want the market to be heavily regulated by government?
  19. If you think property prices are falling in 24 have a look at southern Spain. Catastrophic. The reasons for both are the same. The British have stopped buying because funding has dried up.

    French people have limited incomes in rural regions. The multiples of income required by French banks for a mortgage will buy very little. On average, rural incomes will buy property in the area of 100 - 130k.

    That would not get you a shed in 24. However it might just get you a little pavillon concrete box. The market in period stone houses in France is and always has been Brit/Dutch dependent.
  20. Riff Raff's right. Only buy wood from a trusted source then use him every year. French farmers are particularly notorious for selling you short and wood that is either useless or poor quality. You should ask around locally. Your neighbours will be only to happy to advise who is trustworthy and who is not. Also never pay up until you have measured the amount with him present.
  21. In essence central banks attempt to restore confidence to the financial markets. Without confidence institutions and investors head for safe havens such as gold.

    Without investment in capital markets the whole financial system grinds to a halt and heads south.

    Confidence is everything. Confidence that if you risk your money in investment it will not be lost and you will receive a return relative to that investment.

    So when central banks pump money into the market they are sending a message that all is well and life as we know it has not ended.

    Remember financial market people inhabit a different space on the planet to you and me.
  22. So Lloyds TSB have been able to buy HBOS today at a very cheap price. Great news if you happen to be a Lloyds shareholder. Last year HBOS shares were worth £11 each! Also the regulators would never have allowed this take over in normal times. It creates a huge banking monopoly with enormous retail power. That will eventually adversely effect the consumer by creating restrictive competition. Similar to the French model and the dominance of CA.

    Other UK banks are upset.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/rival-banks-cry-foul-at-lloyds-dominance-after-16312bn-hbos-deal-934379.html

  23. HBOS has been shorted but that in my view is only part of the picture. At the heart of it's problems was the business model it had adopted. Shorting only works when confidence drops. Apart from being unable to raise capital on the interbank market it could not sell on it's mortgage backed assets. Profits were set to plunge and institutional investors consequently run for cover.

    When the City smells blood the beast is doomed.

    It looks as if Lloyds TSB will save the day but on the cheap relatively.

    We live in momentous times.
  24. [quote user="WJT"]Thank you Sunday Driver for the link. I don't see where it is mentioned so hopefully that could never be the case. I wonder which bank the speculaters will pick on next after HSBOS.[/quote]

    HBOS is not being picked on by "speculators". If you were a shareholder in the bank I am sure you would also sell. HBOS in part had a similar business model to Northern Rock. ie: They raised their funds from the market to lend. That source has dried up so the bank cannot make any money. Shareholders take fright so the value of the bank drops. It has nothing to do with speculators. I mean would you want your pension fund to lose money? This crisis is in my view the market sorting the wheat from the chaff. I believe the banking system will eventually benefit from a return to a more traditional model.

  25. Perigueux Crematorium.

    The price I mentioned was a whole cost, extras included 2 years ago. My experience also involved travel across two departments.
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