"Sleepwalking out of the EU"?

[Pickles]

Lawson nows says he would vote to leave the EU. The EU is a very good scapegoat for all our ills, and there is no-one to speak up for the benefits of membership. So, if the UK were to leave the EU, which reciprocal arrangements would have to be renegotiated - or (for instance) are we headed back to bail bonds and carnets to take cars across the Channel? What happens if the EU succumbs to the protectionist elements that exist in all the member countries?

[NormanH]

I would imagine that  arrangements over things like pension increases or health cover for those of us resident in France might well be revised to become like those for British residents of Canada or Australia.

Presumably all those E forms would no longer apply..

At the same time the European aid to depressed areas of the UK would dry up

http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/economic-development/images/aid-ceilings-updated-aug-2010.pdf

but since these are far from Westminster they don't matter [6]

[Théière]

Norman how does the EU aid package compare to the money we all pay in to the EU?

[YCCMB]

If Mr Salmond gets his way, then there's a fair chunk of that which won't really be part of the equation, or indeed of the UK.[:D]

[NormanH]

I have no idea, except that the UK is a net donor.

I think it is important to realise that it also receives aid however, and  that aid seems to go to areas neglected by the government.

The question of whether the UK gives  more than it gets was not the question Pickles asked however.

Intangible benefits don't come into that equation, but must have a value which is not priced in.

[PaulT]

Or is it a case of the UK hoping that the EU wants the UK to remain in the 'club' and the UK is playing the tactic of making it sound as though it wants to leave so that the EU makes concessions to keep the UK in?

[Mr Ceour de Lion II]

The UK will not leave the EU. It would lose too much money if it did. They would be nuts to. Europe may be far from perfect, but in the long run it would lose so much.

I think Europe is at a similar point that the US was at when it was under the Articles of Confederation in the 1780s. That failed because the central government had no power.

[Quillan]

It is difficult to put an exact financial figure on the benefit of being a member of the EU. Not only are there grants for poor areas but grants for agriculture, national parks, infrastructure (roads etc) but the tax benefits as well for industry which makes it easy to trade within the EU. Leaving would mean that the UK would have to become a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) to continue to trade in the EU. This means basically that all the same laws etc that a full member obeys would also have to be obeyed but without representation and of course with loss of grants. You could have a look at Norway, they are in such a position and pay, per 'head', the same as the UK payes per 'head'. Many think we can just leave and continue to trade and believe that is what Norway does but there is a very big price to pay as Norway knows. Yes the UK can trade with the EU outside EFTA but it would make the cost of UK goods sold in Europe very high (import duty etc) and thus not competitive.

All that aside as somebody commented in the Guardian a few days back that if the you use the Ukip vote (only 23%) in the local elections as a guide to how people may vote in an 'In or Out' referendum being as the other three parties are for the EU then the UK public would vote to stay in. But then you can make any figure look like you want and I guess we will not really know until there is a vote. Bit like Scotland really. I do believe that 'stalling' the vote is harmful to the UK in that people thinking of investing will hold off till after the vote and everyone knows the UK desperatly needs investment in new business to help the unemployed for a start.

What about other EU countries and their attitude towards the UK being in or out? Well most fellow Europeans seem to be getting a bit p*ssed off with the UK and just wish it would hurry up and have the vote with the result making very little difference either way to the rest of the EU.

[Rabbie]

While I am in favour of the UK staying in the EU I get the impression that any vote will be very close. A lot of voters who so far have not voted for UKIP are in favour of leaving the EU which is currently seen as the root of all our problems. This is not helped by years of british bureaucrats using EU directives as a way of pushing more petty regulations on to us. A friend who was an MP told me that a single page from Brussels can generate 40 pages of UK legislation.

Currently the EU is blamed for us not being able to deport some Muslim extremists whereas in reality this is due to European Court of Human Rights. Some of the popular press blames everything that goes wrong on the EU and this colours peoples perception of it.

I do not have Mr CdL's confidence that good sense will prevail and that we will stay in. I fear that we will manage to get the worst of  both options. And once having left it will be very difficult to rejoin if it turns out we have made a mistake

[idun]

I would have the European Trade Area, and that is about it. I think that we sleep walked into this almost US of Europe and it makes my blood boil that so much was given up and we all said nothing and really had no vote in it all.

I doubt that the UK would leave, however, I would like the admin in Brussels overhauling and their budget reducing, cutting out the cancer of inefficiency and stupidity and what appears to me to be dishonest dealings and I include in that the way french farmers are topped up and appear to have an automatic 'right' to this.

And the 'human' rights act. Well, my human rights are being infringed all the time. It seems that only bad people have any rights these days, victims and the general public are no longer of any concern to anyone and we have to use kid gloves to treat the bad and the evil. Get the bad'uns that should never have been in the UK, out! Make the CPS do their jobs properly .And criminals punished properly and then rehabilitated properly.

[NormanH]

I would have the European Trade Area, and that is about it.

I am not sure that this is an  option at the moment:

This was what Roland Rudd the chairman of the admittedly pro-Europe Group Business for New Europe had to say earlier today:

Leaving the single market would certainly not lead to economic

advantage. Single market membership adds £1,500 to £3,500 for every

household every year and is the aspect of the EU that some of its most

fierce critics concede is worth preserving."

The economic costs of leaving the EU would far outweigh the gains.

Almost half of our exports go to the EU and if we left we would lose the

tariff-free access that they enjoy.

[Lawson] is right that we should export more to emerging economies,

but one of the straw men of this debate is that it's somehow one or the

other, or that the EU stops us from doing that. Germany's exports to

BRIC countries have shot up and the reality is that the collective

bargaining power of the EU is crucial, and not a hindrance, in that

regard.

Automotive exports could have tariffs of up to 20%, so as foreign car

makers have said, why would they chose to remain in the UK if we left?

Over 700,000 people are employed in this sector in the, so their jobs

would be at risk.

It is also often forgotten that if we were to follow the route of

Norway or Switzerland we would still have to contribute to the EU budget

but receive no money back. Norway pays about €340 million per year. The

UK would probably have to pay about €2 billion per year for the

privilege of market access.

Needless to say, we would still have to sign up to single market rules too, but would have no say in shaping those rules.

[idun]

 Automotive exports to the EU, as in all those french cars that are now manufactured in Morocco have a 20% extra tax on them??????

I would like to see some real figures, done completely independently, but truth is there is as much likelihood of that, as seeing a pig flying past my window.

[Mr Ceour de Lion II]

[quote user="Rabbie"]

While I am in favour of the UK staying in the EU I get the impression that any vote will be very close. A lot of voters who so far have not voted for UKIP are in favour of leaving the EU which is currently seen as the root of all our problems. This is not helped by years of british bureaucrats using EU directives as a way of pushing more petty regulations on to us. A friend who was an MP told me that a single page from Brussels can generate 40 pages of UK legislation.

Currently the EU is blamed for us not being able to deport some Muslim extremists whereas in reality this is due to European Court of Human Rights. Some of the popular press blames everything that goes wrong on the EU and this colours peoples perception of it.

I do not have Mr CdL's confidence that good sense will prevail and that we will stay in. I fear that we will manage to get the worst of  both options. And once having left it will be very difficult to rejoin if it turns out we have made a mistake

[/quote]

I think it's nuts that there's even going to be a vote on it. What does the common person know about what the effects of staying in or opting out would be? Even the politicians would struggle with that one. Guess the vote is purely to placate the masses.

It's funny, I can see so many similarities between the US and Europe. Can see how far behind Europe is in forming a centralised federal government in comparison. Yet in other ways Europe is so far ahead of the US.

[Quillan]

[quote user="idun"] Automotive exports to the EU, as in all those french cars that are now manufactured in Morocco have a 20% extra tax on them??????

I would like to see some real figures, done completely independently, but truth is there is as much likelihood of that, as seeing a pig flying past my window.
[/quote]

I think it is an accepted statistic that both Nissan and Toyota in the UK export 80% of their product in LHD to Europe. I think it was Betty who has a connection with them and said they are also the most productive plants in the EU.

The Renault and Dacia models owned in part by Renault are not for export from Morocco to the EU but are variants specifically designed for that region. If you research you will find there is actually quite a lot about it on the web including Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/morocco-auto-industry-idUSL5N0D304W20130417

[NickP]

Mr CDL says,"What does the common person know about etc.etc."?

Well you seem to have lot to offer, so please enlighten all us commoners. We always like to hear from an expert. By the way what country will you try next?

[Mr Ceour de Lion II]

[quote user="NickP"]Mr CDL says,"What does the common person know about etc.etc."?

Well you seem to have lot to offer, so please enlighten all us commoners. We always like to hear from an expert. By the way what country will you try next?[/quote]

That's the whole point. I don't know. I am a common person too. That's why it's pointless to ask people who don't know whether to be in or out. We all have our own ideas and perceptions, is it a good idea to put something like this to the vote?

Also, I wasn't aware that moving country is a bad thing?

[idun]

Mr Lion II, what on earth has an Estonian got in common with a Sicilian, or me in the North of England got to do with someone from Greece. Cultures, basic beliefs and languages are eons apart.

To have a federal Europe, surely there has to be some glue other than

over paid bureauocrats in Brussels dictating what we should do. And our

elected EU  representatives, what a 'jolly' that is, they make unimagineable

amounts of money and do little else as far as I can see.

I see the differences between us all, all too clearly as I was in France for most of my adult life, and for all some things were always alien to me, many things 'french' have rubbed off on me too. I find myself at odds with friends and family because they simply have not got a clue how life is lived elsewhere OR how life is lived in France. I do understand that our differences do not in any way 'unite' us.

Maybe it is only 'no war' that does unite us. What a synical view, but I have had it said to me many times, and maybe it is true.

[Hoddy]

Richard wrote

"Can see how far behind Europe is in forming a centralised federal government in comparison. "

That sort of implies that we want a centralised Europe when many of us do not.

While it's true that we do a lot of business in Europe, we import more than we export I suppose so we could retaliate if things got petty.

Hoddy

[YCCMB]

Being one of the many men (or, in my case, women) on the Clapham omnibus who was given the option to vote when we had a referendum to join the EU, which was my first ever vote as a grown up, I knew little of what I was voting for then, and so I guess I'm just as well informed about whether or not we should stay.

Much as I find it unpalatable to follow in the footsteps of the Camerons and the Browns of this world, I find myself today thinking "I agree with Nick". I shall have to have a word with myself. But I do. I agree with what Clegg was saying today, which was that the Farage effect is making politicians' knees jerk as though someone is hitting them repeatedly with a tiny hammer.

I am laughing (whether or not it's better than crying, you can be the judge) at the many pronouncements of the odious Nigel about how he and UKIP will consider working with the Tories, but only if Cameron is replaced as leader, how he has single-handedly brought the UK to the brink of withdrawal from the EU...all on the back of a jolly decent showing in the LOCAL (say it: LOCAL) government elections. I should think once the other passengers on the Clapham omnibus have noticed that UKIP's policies don't seem to extend much beyond repealing the law banning smoking in pubs, the fuss will die down. Why, who knows, by the time we get round to having some sort of referendum, we may be in yet another economic boom and nobody will care whether we leave the EU, join the moonies or all  hold hands and try to contact the other side. By then we'll have a new government, which (thank heaven for small mercies) may be many things but certainly won't be UKIP, and hopefully a few more people will have recognised that Nigel Farage has less political credibility than Screaming Lord Sutch.

By the way, if you'd like to print this off and stick it somewhere safe, I promise to eat it when I'm proved spectacularly wrong.

[Mr Ceour de Lion II]

[quote user="idun"]Mr Lion II, what on earth has an Estonian got in common with a Sicilian, or me in the North of England got to do with someone from Greece. Cultures, basic beliefs and languages are eons apart.

To have a federal Europe, surely there has to be some glue other than

over paid bureauocrats in Brussels dictating what we should do. And our

elected EU  representatives, what a 'jolly' that is, they make unimagineable

amounts of money and do little else as far as I can see.

I see the differences between us all, all too clearly as I was in France for most of my adult life, and for all some things were always alien to me, many things 'french' have rubbed off on me too. I find myself at odds with friends and family because they simply have not got a clue how life is lived elsewhere OR how life is lived in France. I do understand that our differences do not in any way 'unite' us.

Maybe it is only 'no war' that does unite us. What a synical view, but I have had it said to me many times, and maybe it is true.

[/quote]

But isn't Europe a federation of sorts already? It has a president, it has a supreme court of sorts. Sovereign states (or countries) coming together under its banner. It will always struggle if it is loose as it is (the US struggles and things are tighter there. People hate being told what to do by the federal gov too).

Idun's comment about a Sicilian having little in common with an Estonian and so on is interesting. A similar thing can be applied to over here. Someone from Montana will probably have more in common with someone in Canada than someone in Texas. However, the thing is that globalisation is much more prevalent now and it is going to get even closer in the future. We are all different, but we are also all very much alike in that we all want the same basic things. We just go about them slightly differently.

I'm not sure what I'm trying to say here. I personally cannot see something working very well if it is on a loose basis as Europe appears to be based on. And it just reminds me of what I have read about the early days before the US created the first federal system.

[Hoddy]

I remember agonizing over this vote too Betty. Incidentally, it was not about whether or not to join it was whether or not to stay in. I listened carefully to all the economic arguments and in the end could only vote with my heart.

I'm hoping that people will think more carefully about how they vote in the next general election than they seem to have done in these last local ones.

When the USA was starting out it was an English speaking union with general agreement about religion. The cost of translation alone for the EU is pretty ridiculous.

Hoddy

[YCCMB]

[quote user="Hoddy"]I remember agonizing over this vote too Betty. Incidentally, it was not about whether or not to join it was whether or not to stay in. [/quote]

See? I told you I had no idea![:D] I was 18 and a few minutes...what could I know? (Everything, of course, like every other 18-year-old)

[Hoddy]

We may have been young and foolish then, but I still don't understand the economic arguments so I suppose I must be old and foolish.

One thing I do remember is Nigel Lawson portraying Tony Benn as a looney leftie for not wanting to stay in on the grounds that it was undemocratic.

Hoddy

[PaulT]

In the UK local elections it was not UKIP that did very well, it was the apathy party that won. Once again very low turnouts.

[DerekJ]

Guilty as charged.... although I usually vote in all elections I never this time.

Who was I to vote for???? I never fancied any of them. In fairness the Conservatives did at least put a flyer through our letterbox... zilch from everybody else.  Although usually a Conservative voter I really can't stand Cameron. Yes, I know this was for local elections but in no way did I want to show any support for Cameron.