Grim predictions

[NormanH]

The number of new deaths each day The range of sources is bewildering. The daily announcements

should be treated with caution as they only include deaths in hospital

of those who have tested positive for coronavirus, and there is

generally a delay in reporting deaths

of a few days or even longer. For example, while on 27 March the

government announced that 926 Covid-19 deaths had so far taken place in

English hospitals, NHS England now reports that the true figure was 1,649. The gold standard is the number of death certificates collated by the Office for National Statistics: it report at least 1,568 mentions of Covid-19 for all deaths up to 27 March, but this will increase as registrations come in.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/coronavirus-statistics-what-can-we-trust-and-what-should-we-ignore

[NormanH]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests

[NickP]

Wow, but when you think about it it's hardly surprising, very sad to think that people go into care homes to be taken care of.

[woolybanana]

They are being ‘taken care of’, Nickodemus. Cheap, quick, saves a fortune in pension and costs. And with a cardboard coffin cheap to dispose of too!

[nomoss]

A link on that Guardian page suggested to me that the UK gov't, together with others, only said that masks were useless in order to discourage people from buying them and creating a shortage.

If they had started sooner than at the last minute, maybe the spread could have been much reduced.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=15&v=hVEVve-3QeM&feature=emb_logo

[idun]

Isn't the problem with masks that people don't use them properly ? That they touch them etc and believe that they are some sort of ultimate protection?

That old folks living in close proximity are dying is no surprise, why would it be.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I know I am in general decline. I am in my late 60's and fully aware that the young thing I was is long gone. Gravity and cell generation is having the effects that it has, and it won't only be the external signs that are happening to me. I and I will say, we all simply end up 'wearing out'.

And the consequence is that if we catch stuff, it can finish us off far more quickly as we get older.

Nature at work.

If you find me sounding morbid, well, I am not trying to be,  as I don't find this sad or morbid, it just is life. 

I don't know who celebrates death as a good life lived, but that is how I would rather look at it. With a very good forever sleep at the end of it.

[woolybanana]

Dylan Thomas - 1914-1953

Do not go gentle into that good night,

Old age should burn and rave at close of day;

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,

Because their words had forked no lightning they

Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright

Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,

And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,

Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight

Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,

Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.

Do not go gentle into that good night.

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

[BritinBretagne]

[quote user="NickP"]"I think"??? "The COVID death rate in England 2.5 times that of Ireland" Might just be something to do with population figures, England has 10 times the amount of people.[/quote]

I think you need to look at the figures not just jump to the wrong conclusions. The rates are per 1000.

Today’s figures

U.K. 717

Ireland 31

[woolybanana]

The analysis of figures at this point is impossible as is the blame game. What matters is that we get out of this situation as safely and as fast as we can. And then review our systems to make sure we can cope next time.

Given the sterility of our present politics I am not optimistic.

I refer to the UK of course.

[Gardian]

We are very worried about our ‘2nd home neighbours’.

They have a Maison de Retraite in Belgium, Its not a small place - 55 rooms or so and normally full, with a waiting list.

As I understand it, things are really bad there in the retirement homes. I’ve researched on the net to try to establish how things are with them + emails of course. Nothing back.

Doesn’t feel good, because he normally replies by return.

[woolybanana]

My daughter is Anglo Belgian psychologist with Psychiatrist hubby who is in charge of psychiatric ward at the biggest Brussels hospital. So, good sources. Plus I know others from my time in Liège.

They tell me that the situation in the old folks homes is a disaster. Enough said.

[NickP]

BB, apart from the population figures you have to take into account the density of the population. More people in the UK live in towns, twice as many people live in London than Ireland. Also, the UK had a higher proportion of people from BAME communities who have been found to be at higher risk from coronavirus.

[BritinBretagne]

Why are you telling me that? It was you who made the strange statement. The truth is the figures are not in line and Ireland’s figures are much better.

[pomme]

The cause of death seems to be being reported in different ways in different countries, especially if there has been no test post mortem.

There seems to be little information on overall year-on-year death rates. E.g.significant changes from figures for 2019 and 2020 could be put down to covid-19 and would reduce the differences in reporting methods of different countries.

[NormanH]

Do

not go quietly into this last fight

Do

not go quietly into this last fight,

Curse

your betrayers at the close of day;

Rage,

rage against this snuffing out of light.

When

sick men at their end have death in sight,

Because

the Goverment has failed them they

Do

not go quietly into this last fight.

Doctors

in despair, crying how they might

Have

saved more of them for another day

Rage,

rage against this snuffing out of light.

The

old and chronic sick who have no right

To

live; choking and gasping on their way

Do

not go quietly into this last fight.

Unprotected

staff who struggle through the night,

Knowing

there could have been another way,

Rage, rage against this

snuffing out of light.

And

now my friends please join me as I write,

Bless

us all now with tears of molten lead, I pray.

Do

not go quietly into this last fight,

Rage,

rage against this snuffing out of light.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ORJXpgP7X7AG0lmJVfoDbXybBtC_WPk5

[NormanH]

I

Yet

more dead, yet more dead,

Yet

more dead people,

Into

the valley of Death

Send

the most feeble

“For

the good of the Herd!

Do

not Test !” was his word.

All

in the valley of Death

Went

the the most feeble

II

Call

on the NHS!”

Give

no resources

Not

though the people knew

That

it would be lethal.

Theirs

not to make reply,

Theirs

not to reason why,

Theirs

to obey – and die.

Into

the valley of Death

Send

the most feeble .

III

Bodies

to right of them,

Bodies

to left of them,

Bodies

in front of them

Threatened

by Evil;

An

impossible task,

What

more can we ask?

Into

the jaws of Death,

Not

so much as a Mask,

Send

the most feeble.

IV

Needing

intensive care,

Clutching

and gasping for air,

Scaring

the Doctors there,

Fighting

the virus where

All

are now equal.

High

Fever provoking

A

desparate choking;

Friends

and the family

Desparately

hoping

That

soon they’ll be stable.

Then

some came back, but not,

Not

the most feeble

V

Bodies

to right of them,

Bodies

to left of them,

Bodies

behind them

Surrendered

to Evil;

An

impossible task,

Too

much to ask….

Came

through the jaws of Death,

Not

so much as a Mask,

All

that was left of them,

Left

– the least feeble.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=14EEb2imC64qfnsyrmANajG_XHFezdiGh

[NormanH]

Do let me know if the audio readings, by a fine actor of my close acquaintance, are not working...

[woolybanana]

Its working ok here. Pity about the cheap shot at Boris though. Otherwise not bad.

[NickP]

"Why are you telling me that? It was you who made the strange statement. The truth is the figures are not in line and Ireland’s figures are much better."

I'm not telling you or stating anything, just saying what I make of and believe causes the statistics. I suppose you believe India, Russia and China's figures, India 1billon people 350 deaths? Different countries use different data to count the deaths. In the UK the death rate from pneumonia has dropped off the scale as most deaths with respiratory problems are now counted as Corona-virus.

[PaulT]

Just had an email from a friend saying that France24 and Aljazeera are reporting that ebola is active again in Africa...plus the lttle matter of a fire making its way to Chernobyl.

[idun]

It was on euronews yesterday that ebola had started again.

edit: restarted........... had it really gone away[:'(]

[NormanH]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/care-homes-coronavirus-why-we-dont-know-true-uk-death-toll

[Meek Megan]

"Pity about the cheap shot at Boris"

The man is inept and dishonest and has always been so. When we have someone in charge who is worthy of respect I am sure he or she will get it.

[woolybanana]

The latest polls suggest otherwise.

[Alan Zoff]

All is well. I was reassured by these very clear guidelines sent to me, presumably by Boris, although he forgot to sign:

As we enter the next 3 weeks of lock down here is a summary of the advice:

1. You MUST NOT leave the house for any reason, but if you have a reason, you can leave the house

2. Masks are useless at protecting you against the virus, but you may have to wear one because it can save lives, but they may not work, but they may be mandatory, but maybe not

3. Shops are closed, except those shops that are open

4. You must not go to work but you can get another job and go to work

5. You should not go to the Drs or to the hospital unless you have to go there, unless you are too poorly to go there

6. This virus can kill people, but don’t be scared of it. It can only kill those people who are vulnerable or those people who are not vulnerable people. It’s possible to contain and control it, sometimes, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster

7. Gloves won't help, but they can still help so wear them sometimes or not

8. STAY HOME, but it's important to go out

9. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarkets, but there are many things missing. Sometimes you won’t need loo rolls but you should buy some just in case you need some

10. The virus has no effect on children except those children it affects

11. Animals are not affected, but there is a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

12. Stay 2 metres away from tigers (see point 11)

13. You will have many symptoms if your get the virus, but you can also get symptoms without getting the virus, get the virus without having any symptoms or be contagious without having symptoms, or be non contagious with symptoms...

14. To help protect yourself you should eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand as it's better not to go out shopping

15. It's important to get fresh air but don't go to parks but go for a walk. But don’t sit down, except if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant or if you’re not old or pregnant but need to sit down. If you do sit down don’t eat your picnic

16. Don’t visit old people but you have to take care of the old people and bring them food and medication

17. If you are sick, you can go out when you are better but anyone else in your household can’t go out when you are better unless they need to go out

18. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house. These deliveries are safe. But groceries you bring back to your house have to be decontaminated outside for 3 hours including Pizza...

19. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but they can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver

20. You are safe if you maintain the safe social distance when out but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance

21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours ... or four hours... six hours... I mean days, not hours... But it needs a damp environment. Or a cold environment that is warm and dry... in the air, as long as the air is not plastic

22. Schools are closed so you need to home educate your children, unless you can send them to school because you’re not at home. If you are at home you can home educate your children using various portals and virtual class rooms, unless you have poor internet, or more than one child and only one computer, or you are working from home. Baking cakes can be considered maths, science or art. If you are home educating you can include household chores to be education. If you are home educating you can start drinking at 10am

23. If you are not home educating children you can also start drinking at 10am

24. The number of corona related deaths will be announced daily but we don't know how many people are infected as they are only testing those who are almost dead to find out if that's what they will die of… the people who die of corona who aren’t counted won’t be counted

25. You should stay in lock down until the virus stops infecting people but it will only stop infecting people if we all get infected so it’s important we get infected and some don’t get infected

26. You can join your neighbours for a street party and turn your music up for an outside disco and your neighbours won’t call the police. People in another street are allowed to call the police about your music.

27. No business will go under due to Coronavirus except those businesses that will have already gone under.