How are ex UK people doing

[allanb]

[quote user="TefkaC"]So it's not related alanb that whenever Mervyn opens his mouth my pension drops?[/quote]Certainly the two things are related.  But Mervyn's comments don't cause your pension's value to fall.  Mervyn's comments, and what happens to your pension, are both caused by the same thing: the state of the British economy.

I don't believe there are many secrets in the City.  I think that, by the time Mervyn has enough information to make a public comment, the same information is fairly widely known in the financial markets.  If so, it will be largely discounted in the exchange rate even before M opens his mouth.

You must have noticed that sometimes the rate falls even when nobody important has said anything. 

[Quillan]

[quote user="nimportequoi"]Parity predicted by end 2009

[/quote]

I don't know it could be sooner, 1.1661 and still going.

[plod]

End of 2008?

[Quillan]

I don't know really. I thought I would have a quick look before I went to bed and it seems to have bottomed out at 1.1556 and has come up a bit to 1.1606 where it seems to want to be for the moment. Travelex are selling at 1.118 [:'(] .

I was thinking, what was the EU exchange rate if the UK joined the Euro, 1.42 seems to come to mind  but I can't really remember. Might be a good time, well for the Brits over here anyway, for the UK to join the Euro. The big question is of course would the EU let them?

[YCCMB]

Hmmm...let's see....."shall we make life better for half a million Brits living in France, or for the 60 million living in the UK?" I wonder.....gee, that's a tough one for Gordon, isn't it?

[Quillan]

Bit of a typo there Betty, I think you ment "shall we make life better for half a million Brits living in France AND for the 60 million living in the UK?" [;-)] .

[YCCMB]

Well, Quillan, I'd settle for the latter, and if there's a means of achieving the former at the same time, fine.....but I'm not sure the Government's top priority should be people who have chosen to leave the UK and live elsewhere! Looking at the UK news over the last couple of nights, it seems people from all over Europe are flocking here to shop at the moment. In my Ladybird Book of Economics, it seems that if people buy stuff, it's potentially a Good Thing for the economy. As no-one in the UK appears particularly keen to buy things, I'm OK with people coming here from Euroland and filling their boots while it's cheap.[;-)] Maybe the "I'll never set foot again in the UK unless hell freezes over" people should pop over and stock up on essentials, and do their bit to help kick start the UK economy and boost the pound, rather than sitting over in France and expecting those of us who are over here to do it?

[Mr Wiggy]

A little bit of good news, the for/ex is now up at 1.1645.

I blame them thar damn git's across the pond for all our troubles

[Quillan]

Well Betty I get the same news as yourself or so I thought because I don't remember seeing anything about Europeans flocking to the UK to go shopping and I can't find anything on the BBC website about it either. All I have seen is that the retail sector is bleeding and its offering massive discounts up to 70% is some high street stores. Your Ladybird book should have explained to you that in business you have to make a profit. If you knock 40, 50, 60 and even 70% of the price of goods you are either making a massive loss just to clear stock. your desperate or your original price was making a huge profit, basically ripping off the customer. I rather think its the first option and its to get people in to the shop so they will buy other (non discounted) goods that are not in the sale. It's called a 'loss leader'.

The other thing you need to think on is that the UK buys a lot of things from Europe. Probably the biggest thing you might instantly know about is cars. There are loads of small and medium businesses who buy either goods or materials from Europe and they are finding it very hard as well and many have or will go under. All due to the exchange rate. So when AD and the BOE make their statements the consequences are not felt just by Ex-pats but more importantly the whole of the UK economy.

Seeing that every European country is feeling the recession (even Mercedes are closing production for two weeks) I can't see that many people going to the UK to buy stuff cheap, they will be hanging on to their money.

Lowering interest rates may look good for the housing market and those that want to borrow money but the other side of the coin is investment. Heres a bit from your Ladybird book that you may also of read. If you have money to save you look for the best return and security. You would look around for say a bond issued by a big safe institution that pays say 6.0%. You wouldn't invest it in a place that offered 3.5% and was not very stable or secure. The institution then uses your money to invest in all sorts of places like housing, manufacturing and lending it to people in general.

Investment companies and foreign banks do the same thing but on a global scale. So if your countries interest rate is low and others are higher and/or more stable (the latter indicated by a better growth rate) they will invest their money in the latter. Fortunately for the rest of Europe where people are not so debt ridden and preoccupied with property ownership its not considered so much of a risk even when at time the interest rate is lower than the UK. Very simplistic view admittedly but then as you implied Ladybird books normally are as they are aimed mainly at children.

[Quillan]

[quote user="Mr Wiggy"]

A little bit of good news, the for/ex is now up at 1.1645.

I blame them thar damn git's across the pond for all our troubles

[/quote]

It seems to want to hover between 1.60 and 1.66 at the moment looking at the last 24 hours. I have not watched the news yet so I don't know if the European figures are out, perhaps they are or will be better than expected. Perhaps it was Frances Ms Legarde who just announced that Frances economy has only shrunk by 0.3%, much better than anyone expected. But then France is not in to lending money to people anywhere near as much as the UK. Lets hope it starts to get better and a few people keep their mouths shut this time [;-)] .

[AnOther]

[quote user="Mr Wiggy"]I blame them thar damn git's across the pond for all our troubles[/quote]Actually it's mostly everybody's fault, too many lost sight of Mr Micawber's wise words.

"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six,

result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure

twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

A few humorous but often accurate quotes about money.

• Few women care to be laughed at and men not at all,
  except for large sums of money. ~ Alan Ayckbourn
• It is a kind of spiritual snobbery that makes people
  think they can be happy without money. ~ Albert Camus
• When a fellow says it ain't the money but the
  principle of the thing, it's the money. ~ Artemus Ward
• God shows his contempt for wealth by the kind of
  person he selects to receive it. ~ Austin O'Malley
• If you would know the value of money, go and try to
  borrow some. ~ Benjamin Franklin
• If your outgo exceeds your income, then your upkeep
  will be your downfall. ~ Bill Earle
• I just need enough to tide me over until I need
  more. ~ Bill Hoest
• Money won't buy happiness, but it will pay the
  salaries of a huge research staff to study the problem. ~ Bill Vaughan
• Money doesn't talk, it swears. ~ Bob Dylan
• Everybody is afraid they won't have any money after
  they die, but Jack Benny discovered a way to take it with him. He had his
  appendix taken out and a piggy bank put in. ~ Bob Hope
• Money can't buy happiness, but it can make you
  awfully comfortable while you're being miserable. ~ Clare Boothe Luce
• There are people who have money and people who are
  rich. ~ Coco Chanel
• No man's credit is ever as good as his money. ~
  Edgar Watson Howe
• Money never made a fool of anybody; it only shows
  them up. ~ Elbert Hubbard
• A billion here, a billion there, and soon you're
  talking about real money. ~ Everett M. Dirksen
• If you marry for money, you will surely earn it. ~
  Ezra Bowen
• Money is always there but the pockets change. ~
  Gertrude Stein
• Blood's not thicker than money. ~ Groucho Marx
• The most valuable of all human possessions, next to
  a superior and disdainful air, is the reputation of being well-to-do. ~ H. L.
  Mencken
• When a person with money meets a person with
  experience, the person with the experience winds up with the money and the
  person with the money winds up with the experience. ~ Harvey MacKay
• A fool and her money are soon courted. ~ Helen
  Rowland
• I've got all the money I'll ever need, if I die by
  four o clock. ~ Henny Youngman
• Money will say more in one moment than the most
  eloquent lover can in years. ~ Henry Fielding
• Having more money does not insure happiness. People
  with ten million dollars are no happier than people with nine million dollars.
  ~ Hobart Brown
• Money is like manure. You have to spread it around
  or it smells. ~ J. Paul Getty
• I have enough money to last me the rest of my life,
  unless I buy something. ~ Jackie Mason
• Money, it turned out, was exactly like sex, you
  thought of nothing else if you didn't have it and thought of other things if
  you did. ~ James Baldwin
• I don't like money actually, but it quiets the
  nerves. ~ Joe E. Lewis
• It doesn't matter whether you are rich or poor -- as
  long as you've got money. ~ Joe E. Lewis
• Don't be too busy earning a living to make any
  money. ~ Joe Karbo
• Bankruptcy is a legal proceeding in which you put
  your money in your pants pocket and give your coat to your creditors. ~ Joey
  Adams
• Why is there so much month left at the end of the
  money? ~ John Barrymore
• The only thing money gives you is the freedom of not
  worrying about money. ~ Johnny Carson
• I haven't got as much money as some folks, but I've
  got as much impudence as any of them, and that's the next thing to money. ~
  Josh Billings
• If you’re given a choice between money and sex
  appeal, take the money. As you get older, the money will become your sex
  appeal. ~ Katharine Hepburn
• The safest way to double your money is to fold over
  once and put it in your pocket. ~ Kin Hubbard
• I would become a priest or a rabbi or a monk or
  whatever the hell was necessary to perform miracles such as taking money from
  someone else’s pocket and putting it into mine, still remaining within the
  confines of the law. ~ Lenny Bruce (How to Talk Dirty and Influence People)
• It's important to me that money not be important to
  me. ~ Les Brown
• I have imbibed such a love for money that I keep
  some sequins in a drawer to count, and cry over them once a week. ~ Lord Byron
• If you want him to mourn, you had best leave him
  nothing. ~ Marcus Valerius Martial
• His money is twice tainted: taint yours and taint
  mine. ~ Mark Twain
• I am opposed to millionaires, but it would be
  dangerous to offer me the position. ~ Mark Twain
• Money can't buy poverty. ~ Marty Feldman
• Having money is rather like being a blond. It is
  more fun but not vital. ~ Mary Quant
• Money is something you got to make in case you don't
  die. ~ Max Asnas
• And knowing money is a root of evil, in Christian
  charity, he'd take away whatever things may hinder your salvation. ~ Moliere (Tartuffe)
• When I was young I used to think that money was the
  most important thing in life; now that I am old, I know it is. ~ Oscar Wilde
• It is better to spend money like there's no tomorrow
  then to spend tonight like there's no money. ~ PJ O'Rourke
• Money often costs too much. ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
• What's the quickest way to become a millionaire?
  Borrow fivers off everyone you meet. ~ Richard Branson
• Money isn't everything. but it ranks right up there
  with oxygen. ~ Rita Davenport
• More than ever before, Americans are suffering from
  back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments. ~ Robert Orben
• Money couldn't buy friends, but you got a better
  class of enemy. ~ Spike Milligan
• God makes, and apparel shapes; but it's money that
  finishes the man. ~ Thomas Fuller
• Making money is a hobby that will complement any
  other hobbies you have, beautifully. ~ Scott Alexander
• I've been rich and I've been poor. Rich is better. ~
  Sophie Tucker
• A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money. ~
  W. C. Fields
• Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget
  rule No.1. ~ Warren Buffett
• Money is better than poverty, if only for financial
  reasons. ~ Woody Allen
• A nickel isn't worth a dime today. ~ Yogi Berra
• When asked what would he do if he found $1 million,
  Yogi responded, If the guy was poor, I'd give it back. ~ Yogi Berra
• Money won't make you happy... but everybody wants to
  find out for themselves. ~ Zig Ziglar

[Maricopa]

Slow watch Ernie Y[Www]

[AnOther]

You've lost me there Maricopa [8-)]

[YCCMB]

[quote user="Quillan"]

Well Betty I get the same news as yourself or so I thought because I don't remember seeing anything about Europeans flocking to the UK to go shopping and I can't find anything on the BBC website about it either.

[/quote]

Well, Quillan, clearly your financial skills are heaps better than your Googling skills:

[url]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7721377.stm[/url]

Mind you, I wouldn't trust the BBC.....it's still of the opinion that 3 days ago the £/€ rate was 1.23!!!!!!!!!

[Russethouse]

In addition American tourists are beginning to consider the UK as a location - an antique centre not far away recently had American buyers who spent tens of thousands of pounds, I'm meeting with friends from the USA this weekend.[:)]

[allanb]

[quote user="Quillan"]There are loads of small and medium businesses who buy either goods or materials from Europe and they are finding it very hard as well and many have or will go under. All due to the exchange rate. So ... the consequences are not felt just by expats but more importantly the whole of the UK economy.[/quote] (I've skipped over the bit about statements by AD and BOE - that question has probably been beaten to death.)

You're implying that the consequences of the falling exchange rate are bad for the whole of the economy, but they're not.  Most of the "small and medium" businesses (big ones too - why exclude them?) don't depend on imports, but they compete with imports, so they benefit from a lower rate for the pound.

Almost all journalists get this wrong, by the way.  They say that a fall in sterling benefits exporters, which is true as far as it goes, but it's only a small part of the truth.  Any business that has foreign competitors will benefit - and that means most businesses.

If you make a machine in the UK and you're trying to sell it against competing products made overseas, a cheaper pound will help you; it makes no difference whether your potential customer is in Stuttgart or Milwaukee or Coventry.  And the same is true for service industries.  If you run a guest-house in Scotland, a cheaper pound is good for you too: going abroad for a holiday will now be more expensive for British people, and staying in your guest-house will now be cheaper for foreigners.

Those who suffer from a fall in sterling (like me and most of the people on this forum, I would guess) are a minority.  But just think: people employed in the UK to sell Mercedes and Lamborghinis are suffering with us.    

[YCCMB]

I'm glad you got the same Ladybird book I did, allanb.[:D]. I was wondering how I'd managed to spend an entire career in export sales.............................

[Quillan]

Betty, thank you for the link, I couldn't find anything but as you say my googling is not that good.

The BBC was right, it rose to 1.2302 at 05:00 in the morning before its downward tumble, not the best time for many ordinary folk to transfer money around.

I think you have to read the BBC report very carefully and apply some common sense to it. Its great to say the use of Euro cards is up 20% but 20% of what, it could be 100 people for all we know although I suspect its a few thousand. The shops in South Ken are normally full with foreign people buying presents this time of year. Lets not forget there are around 80,000 French people living in and around London and there is a French quarter in north London (Belsize Park). Thats just French, then theres the Germans, Spanish, Italians etc all of whom are probably buying presents to take home for Christmas and may well be using their Euro accounts (I would, it makes sense).

Then there is the comment about 10M shoppers in 6 weeks followed by a comment about the Euro getting stronger in the same sentence which implies that you are getting 10M visitors from Euroland, I can't seeing that as being quite correct. 10M people yes but not all from Euroland. Most Europeans won't get in to debt (its socially frowned upon in France for example) and at the moment, just like everyone else they are hanging on to their money. Saving £300 off a £950 hand bag (a handbag at that price are they mad?) is not really representative as I know very few ordinary people who can afford such luxuries in the first place and those that can are not bothered about saving that sort of money. As you said you can't always take the BBC as being gospel.

Slowly creeping up guys.

[Quillan]

Yes Alan I agree but then as we do mainly 'screw drivering' in the UK most of the components come from within the EU or further abroad. Just look at cloths, if the cloths are not made in China (I seem to remeber somebody saying 90% of the worlds Bras and nickers are made there) then the wool, cotton, plastic or whatever is usually fabricated (woven) outside the UK, much of it in China or the far east. Most food, to enable you to have it all year round, is imported. Cars imported mainly from Europe. What about grey goods, even Dyson is made out in the far east. Come to think about it what do we manufacture in the UK. My friends brother sells musical instruments in the UK all of which are sourced in the EU or beyond and he is finding it very difficult at the moment, he can't even get a decent futures rate on the Euro.

[YCCMB]

Unfortunately, Quillan, the written report I linked to was only a summary of a televised report on the local (BBC London) news which went into far more detail and interviewed quite a few shoppers, who certainly weren't the residents of "Frog Alley" as my French collegues used to refer to their South Ken home. As you will be only too aware, statistics on actual visitors to the UK (or anywhere else for that matter) are readily available, and I don't think that your argument necessarily takes full account of the fact that the vast majority of French people (indeed, people from other countries in general) living in London are actually working here, and, logically, being paid in Sterling....are you really suggesting it's worthwhile transferring money from the UK back to France so you can spend Euros in the UK?. Let's face it, in times of favourable exchange in the other sense, Brits flocked to France for a booze-cruise or whatever, as the savings they could get more than paid for the cost of travel. When you can, still, fly to the UK for peanuts with a budget airline, it's entirely possible to have a trip that pays for itself, whether or not you want to buy a stupidly expensive handbag. The TV report was looking at much more "affordable" bargains and demonstrating savings for the same item of around 20%

EDIT: And if you think the BBC can't be trusted........i-Google is still showing me an exchange rate of 1.269!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Quillan]

South Ken, no they probably don't work but Belsize Park where most of them are then yes because I talked to some last time I was over. The same in Brighton and around there, they all come to work, save some money and then take it back to France (I know a few young couples from round here that now work in the UK because it was, at the time, easier to get work than in France) but then exchange rate is not looking so good for them either.

I was wondering how they coped getting their 60" plasma TV though that stupid size measuring thing for baggage at Stanstead and how much Ryanair charge to put it in the hold [;-)] . Perhaps they fold it in half [:D] . Afterthought, knowing Ryanair they probably do it for you when your not looking just before it goes in the hold [6] .

I am not saying nobody is coming to buy cheap, those from Northern France in particular who can bring their car to take their goodies home are a good example but then this report was talking about London. What I do question is 10M Europeans from Euroland coming in a 6 week period just to London or thats what it implied. Thats one sixth of the UK population.

[YCCMB]

[quote user="Quillan"]

I was wondering how they coped getting their 60" plasma TV though that stupid size measuring thing for baggage at Stanstead and how much Ryanair charge to put it in the hold [;-)] . Perhaps they fold it in half [:D] . Afterthought, knowing Ryanair they probably do it for you when your not looking just before it goes in the hold [6] .

[/quote]

Yeah, a great example..........I'm sure they all come here to buy plasma TV's that don't work in France. [:D]

[WJT]

Saw this today. Not that it's true but do hope it never happens in France.[:(]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20081114/tuk-expats-in-spain-may-face-anger-6323e80.html

[HoneySuckleDreams]

the plasma i bought in the UK 4 yrs ago works ok here.

We have a french friend who has always poo-pooed (!) us buying cars in the UK...simple economics we keep saying, £1000 in the uk €4500 over here.  He's done a U turn and just bought a big motorbike from the UK and is driving up to get it this weekend. Even with the drive/hire of a van etc, it's still less than half of what he would have to pay here.

I don't think the french will do their tesco runs up into the UK but for certain big capital outlays it is worth them doing it.

[krusty]

[quote user="You can call me Betty"]

Yeah, a great example..........I'm sure they all come here to buy plasma TV's that don't work in France. [:D]
[/quote]

Not such a bad example most modern Tv`s are multi standard , my LG plasma worked in the uk and now recieves French Tv no problem