The pound is on the brink

[velcorin]

My point about Refinance was as per Sprogster. Continetal central banks traditional finance short 12-24 months, BofE traditionally finances long 10-25 years.

If I was being brutally honest, I'd put France in the firing line as a target for the hedgies. It's a no lose scenario for them.

Also, as food for thought. One topic on the agenda today (from a Belgain counterpart) was how much pressure, and what concessions wopuld be made, with the next UK Government, to join the Euro.

However you count the debts the UK has still by far the best National Debt scenario, and Merkel needs them.

Decry if you want, but that is the European view.

[Sprogster]

Soc Gen and BNP have a major exposure to Greek debt, so France through its banks is vunerable. Also its own bad sovereign debt situation is hardly anything to boast about!

[Quillan]

Europe is doomed to disaster as so many people have said  ever since it all started. The Euro is doomed to failure and will collapse, again we are told. Well lots of people have been waiting for over 2 years now for the Euro to collapse so their pensions will exchange better in to Euros and it simply just has not happened. My tip is take the money why you can because it won't stay up at 1.15 to 1.16 for long and lets not forget that the people saying where its going to be next year were saying it was going to be there by Christmas last so they know just as much about it as any of us lot.

[NickP]

[quote user="Quillan"]Europe is doomed to disaster as so many people have said  ever since it all started. The Euro is doomed to failure and will collapse, again we are told. Well lots of people have been waiting for over 2 years now for the Euro to collapse so their pensions will exchange better in to Euros and it simply just has not happened. My tip is take the money why you can because it won't stay up at 1.15 to 1.16 for long and lets not forget that the people saying where its going to be next year were saying it was going to be there by Christmas last so they know just as much about it as any of us lot.[/quote]

So, basically Q what you are saying  is that you do not know what you are talking about. [:D] [:D]

[just john]

[quote user="NickP"] So, basically Q what you are saying  is that you do not know what you are talking about. [:D] [:D][/quote]

Do any of the pundits, it does excercise the mind at least and bring some interest to the day; on UK Breakfast TV this morning one of the exchange company's were advising ''don't buy your holiday euros yet, you'll get a lot more and whatever it is it will be better than last year''[Www]

 

[mint]

JJ, as last year was catastrophic for many people, "better than last year" is still ........er............pretty disastrous.

[just john]

Tell me about it sweet, as one who is paying builders excessive Euro wages (by comparioson to UK builders ) out of next to parity exchange, I am very concious of exchange rates. The good bit is, that that was the reply to a question of ''is the current exchange rate of over 1.15 a high and should we be buying our holiday euros now; to which the reply was ''no, wait'', ''don't buy your holiday euros yet, you'll get a lot more and whatever it is it will be better than last year'' 

We don't have to believe them, today there is so many different spins . . . but I don't think we are first in line for the traders any more . . .

 

[Quillan]

Quite Nick and neither does anyone else especially the 'experts'. What I was saying is that these 'experts' have been saying these things for ages about the EU and the Euro and none of it has ever happened so when they raise peoples hopes by saying it will be 1.25 next year I tend to get a bit upset because these predictions can dramatically effect what some people do now (like do I borrow to see my self through to next year etc). I am no expert but I did say (if you go and look back through the threads) that it might be around 1.16 by this time when the same 'experts were saying it would be back at anywhere between 1.20 and 1.40, I actually had a bet with one if you remember. Now that was just a guess on my behalf based on the current data available then plus a 'toss of the coin' which to be honest I think is exactly what the 'experts' do plus they 'talk it up' or down when they feel like it. I mean if we could predict whats going to happen accurately we would all be having this discussion sitting on a beach in the Bahamas drinking large quantities of G&T outside our £10M beach-side mansions. [;-)]

[mint]

Not Bahamas, Q, too hot and nothing much to do if you don't like water sports....

[Quillan]

[quote user="sweet 17"]Not Bahamas, Q, too hot and nothing much to do if you don't like water sports....[/quote]

I looked for 'Water Sports' on Google and it came up with some rather rude things. [;-)]

[mint]

That's OK, Q, when I wanted to buy a dinghy, I looked up "inflatables" and the answers that came up were rather more than just rude!

[Alan Zoff]

I daren't look up Water Sport Inflatables. Well, might look using just one eye.

[Jako]

First you start to warm up the general public by publishing an article in a newspaper in order to avoid a big shock e.g. by hinting at a possible IMF involvement:

Tories urged to call in IMF for audit of UK's debts if they win election

The Tories might just follow the lead of Greece and declare: "it is all much worse than Gordon said, we need help"

[Quillan]

[quote user="Jako"]First you start to warm up the general public by publishing an article in a newspaper in order to avoid a big shock e.g. by hinting at a possible IMF involvement:

Tories urged to call in IMF for audit of UK's debts if they win election

The Tories might just follow the lead of Greece and declare: "it is all much worse than Gordon said, we need help"

[/quote]

I don't think you need a newspaper to tell you that. [;-)] As for Mervyn King saying that whichever party won the election would soon find itself ejected from power "for a generation" because of the scale of the spending reductions that it will have to imposed well I hate to blow my own trumpet but I have been saying this for ages, in fact just before the last election. If you are an MP with any intelligence then this really, really, is THE election you want to loose. |Sadly none of them have any (intelligence) and they all want to win at whatever cost including telling lies to the people, all a bit sad really.

 

[Jako]

[quote user="Quillan"]Sadly none of them have any (intelligence) and they all want to win at whatever cost including telling lies to the people, all a bit sad really.

 [/quote]

We totally agree.

I hate the Euro-bashing by UK and US "analysts" trying to manipulate markets in focusing on a problem in a tiny economy while there are  greater problems in big economies. The Euro zone would be in real trouble if Greece had to save Germany and France and yet that is exactly the situation in the US (and the UK).

[Quillan]

Which is exactly the reason why I think the UK were foolish not to join the Euro. It would have been the UK that got the help because the EU can't afford for a country like the UK to drag down the Euro.

[AnOther]

[quote user="Jako"]

Tories urged to call in IMF for audit of UK's debts if they win election

[/quote]And whilst they are at it they can audit the EU commission who have not had their accounts signed off in 15 years [:'(]

[chessfou2]

Sprogster,
You said:
"At the momernt the Uk has to pay only about 1.2% on its soverieign debt"
How do we reconcile that with the figures of £bn 43 p.a. for Debt Interest (2010 Budget) 
and a supposed "total government debt" of £bn 890 (various sources).
Prima facie, it looks to me like either
(a) about 4.8% interest rate (43*100/890), or
(b) total govt debt is understated and is really in the region of £bn 3,580 (43*100/1.2); or maybe
(c) some mix of the above (different rates of interest on "sovereign debt" and other stuff (PFI?), e.g.
£bn 43 debt interest
£bn 890*1.2% = (ca) £bn 11, leaving
£bn 32 of debt interest at ?% on £?bn.
Have you any sources to clarify the position?
PS. I also wonder if AnOther could tell us when was the last time that the UK gov had its accounts signed off ...
We know the EU accounts generally can't be signed off because of failings of recipient govts of EU payments.

[Gardengirl]

I find it incredible that the EU commission keeps giving out orders to us when their accounts have again not been signed off! I do wish they would put their house in order before more orders are issued! Bliss to think how long a breather everyone would have! [:)]

[chessfou2]

Gardengirl,

really? Do you think the UK does better? Here's what emerged from a Select Committee in Westminster:

"149. Sir John Bourn, Comptroller and Auditor General at the UK’s National Audit Office told us that, were he required to issue a single Statement of Assurance on the UK Government’s accounts in the same way as the Court of Auditors does for Europe’s accounts, he, like the Court, would be unable to do so (Q 192). This is because last year he issued a qualified opinion on 13 of the 500 accounts of the British Government which he audits."

Have a read of a bit of the report:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeucom/270/27010.htm

[Martin963]

I think the idea to call in the IMF for an audit straight after the election is brilliant.    Then an independent body can assess how much damage has been done in the last thirteen years.    Maybe the answer will be "no damage".

I'm torn about whether Britain should be in the €.   For many years I was enthusiastic,   believing that convergence criteria would be strictly enforced by - among others - the Germans.   How wrong I was and on that basis alone it's just as well we aren't a member.

Having said that,  I believe that we will rue the day that Brown printed all that funny money  (yes,  £200,000,000,000,  count the zeros) and borrowed almost as much again.   That's the easy part in "saving the world",   the difficult part is mopping it up again.  Of course it'll never actually be mopped up in my view and will speed us further down the path to ruin.   Had we been in the € I don't think he'd have been allowed to print nearly so much.

And although some people maintain that devaluing the £ gets us out of recession just count how many times it's been done since WW2  (in my life time,   1966,  1976,  1992,  and the biggest one 2006 onwards).  All it's done is generate inflation,   and our exporters (and who can blame them) have just relished getting more £ when they sell abroad rather than using the extra money in investment and developing new markets,  and indeed maintaining and improving competitiveness.

I continue to be in total and absolute despair about Britain's future,    but all I hope for is that next Thursday we at least eject the wretched Brown once and for all from the levers of power....

As I say,   maybe an IMF audit would convince me that the man has done nothing but good for our country,  I'd believe them.   But I don't believe him.

Sorry to be political....

[just john]

And actually give the incoming government a clean slate, with an independent assessment of the mess they have to clear up; wouldn't it be good[:)]

 

[NormanH]

[quote user="Martin963"]

Sorry to be political....

[/quote]

No you aren't! Your posts read as propaganda for the Tories.

[Martin963]

Ah Norman my dear fella you've popped up.  Thought you might....

As I think I've said before,  I'll let the good folk on this forum be the judge of what I write.  Your reaction was entirely predictable......

And luckily - like many others on here - I and Mrs W have a vote on Thursday.   Ours went off (postally) Friday afternoon (although they won't actually begin their journey back until today due to le premier mai) so should be safely in Devon by Thursday morning.

My concern -  as I think others understand - is much more to do with the dreadful state of Britain's finances than with making a political statement as such.    *ANY* government who had presided over the matters I mentioned would receive my criticism,  regardless of their political colour.   For example I don't think that the lax monetary policy under Mr Heath and Mr Barber was anything to be proud of......

[Martin963]

Is no-one going to comment on the fact that we have €1.18 to the £ this morning?

Mind you I'm one down on bottles of champagne as there was the loud report of an emerging cork last night at 20.27 CET.......