Jack Straw on collapse of the Euro

[Frederick]

Well I hope the UK governement is already working on a plan to deal with the fall- out when it happens !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13839381

 

[Quillan]

I think pensioners living in France (or Spain) would love the Euro to collapse, trouble is they have been waiting for nearly three years now and it and the EU are still here.

[Bugsy]

Jack Straws knowledge in such matters runs akin to my knowledge of 'Quantum Physics".

.

[NormanH]

I doubt that the Greeks or the Eurozone are interested in the views of people such as Jack Straw and Boris

[Jako]

You mean 10 years I guess.

No chance of a Euro collapse in an economy with just 4,5% deficit and in much better shape than the US (11% ) or Japan (12%)

The fact that some Brits believe they would be better of with a currency based on a relative small island with >10% deficit, >80% debt ,a failing economy and economic policy, political instability , social unrest and the money printing machine likely to be switched back on again  proves their ignorance.

Reykjavik on Thames is taking a big gamble and the BoE now apparently think that Zimbabwe did have best monetary policy.

The Euro would even survive a default of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.The fallout would be bigger in other, weaker, economies.

Contrary to the US and the UK, the ECB still has not used its money-printing 'weapon' yet.

China has been buying 75% Euro  and only 25% Dollar for the last 4 months. Are they wrong?

[breizh]

Reading his words carefully. He is correct on some aspects. Not sure I agree with his conclusions.

The EUR has by default become a transfer union, channeling funds from rich countries to poor ones. This was specifically excluded, at Germany's insistance in the original monetary union treaty. The ECB is in breech of it's own instrument of incorporation.

There is no default/insolvency/withdrawal process in the original treaty. Therefore there is an explicit guarantee of members' debts by all the members. If Greece were to leave, or default, that explicit guarantee will have proven to be illusory. Ireland and Portugal would quickly fail, Spain and Italy would fail, and then the next weakest member is France.

If the weaker nations all fail, the ECB and virtually all the Eurozone commercial banks will require recapitalising, over and above the current level of Govn intervention. IF this scenario plays out to it's conclusion, France will default. Germany will not.

This is a defining moment for the Eurozone. If they fail, the whole EU will fail, therefore UK has a vested interest in ensuring the Eurozone remains solvent. I certainly back whatever financial intervention is required by the UK. Please bear in mind, that dispite all the politically motivated parocial UK media comments, the UK is the most financially solvent of all the major economies in the EU. I think that may show just how bad the financial position of other member states is, particularly Germany and France.

[NickP]

[quote user="Quillan"]I think pensioners living in France (or Spain) would love the Euro to collapse, trouble is they have been waiting for nearly three years now and it and the EU are still here.[/quote]

Pots and kettles Q? Bit like you waiting and praying for the pound to collapse. [:P]

[Alan Zoff]

I get more and more confused on this subject. And amazed how opposing viewpoints can use the same facts to produce opposite conclusions. I think I must be too easily swayed by good talkers. I found myself siding with Ed Balls on Sunday about how best to solve economic problems. But I don't really have a clue which is the better course of action - austerity to save or relaxation to encourage growth. And more worryingly, I don't think those "in control" have much idea either.

[bixy]

You're not the only one confused, Alan. What I would like to know is, if the €uro is so weak why is the pound/€uro exchange rate so poor? Or could it be that the pound is even weaker? Answers please.

Patrick

[Clarkkent]

I too have asked myself this question.

Is it because the Bank of England base rate is being held at 0.5% and this makes sterling investments unattractive?

[Quillan]

[quote user="NickP"]

[quote user="Quillan"]I think pensioners living in France (or Spain) would love the Euro to collapse, trouble is they have been waiting for nearly three years now and it and the EU are still here.[/quote]

Pots and kettles Q? Bit like you waiting and praying for the pound to collapse. [:P]

[/quote]

Oh come on get real, I'm not 'hoping and preying' the pound collapses I simply said it may get to 1:1 or worse and that I can't see it getting any better that 1.16. It does not worry me as I have worked in Euros for many years now although if it did collapse I might be tempted to buy some. [;-)]

[PeterG]

[quote user="Clarkkent"]

I too have asked myself this question.

Is it because the Bank of England base rate is being held at 0.5% and this makes sterling investments unattractive?

[/quote]

Correct......... ECB base rate 1.25%, If you were a foreign investor, where would you put your money?

 

 

[Quillan]

[quote user="Clarkkent"]

I too have asked myself this question.

Is it because the Bank of England base rate is being held at 0.5% and this makes sterling investments unattractive?

[/quote]

I would think your probably right. If you have money to save you look round for a safe place that gives decent interest. The Eurozone offers much better interest rates so attract more investment thats then invested internally in business, productivity goes up, growth rate goes up so they are a safe place to invest although many (with an interest in the dollar) would like to tell you different. Probably explains why in the last quarter Germany and France's economy grew by something like 3.8 and 3.2% and the UK grew by 1% from -0.5 to +0.5 and why the Eurozone countries were out of the recession ages before the UK slowly moved out of it. The other thing the UK is doing, just like the US is implementing 'Quantitive Easing' or to us thick public, printing money (remember Wilson and Callaghan?). They have to do this because, and to but it incredibly simplistically, there is not enough physical money coming in to the countries to fill up the old ATM's so they have to print it instead. Then there is the issue of low interest rates and inflation as you see in the UK compared to the Eurozone.

The thing you should ask yourself if you had a hundred grand to invest and wanted decent interest and security where would you put it, in the UK, I wouldn't but then thats just me.

[pachapapa]

Simple!

CH-USD

1.20USD               Last Price

+0.0071 +0.60% Today's Change

0.8973-1.20 52 Week Range

That makes 33.73% in the last 52 weeks[:D]

Interest rate!! I dont think gnomes pay interest on current accounts.

[NickP]

[quote user="Quillan"][quote user="NickP"]

[quote user="Quillan"]I think pensioners living in France (or Spain) would love the Euro to collapse, trouble is they have been waiting for nearly three years now and it and the EU are still here.[/quote]

Pots and kettles Q? Bit like you waiting and praying for the pound to collapse. [:P]

[/quote]

Oh come on get real, I'm not 'hoping and preying' the pound collapses I simply said it may get to 1:1 or worse and that I can't see it getting any better that 1.16. It does not worry me as I have worked in Euros for many years now although if it did collapse I might be tempted to buy some. [;-)]

[/quote]

Q don't tell me to get real mate, [:D] Every opportunity that comes along you rubbish the pound, just take a look at your past posts you are constantly harping on, and every time the pound dips you are braying , but you never say anything when it goes up. It's obvious that you hoping and praying (even) for the pound to collapse as you have obviously sunk all your money into the Euro. Give us all a break it's getting boring

[Quillan]

[quote user="NickP"][quote user="Quillan"][quote user="NickP"]

[quote user="Quillan"]I think pensioners living in France (or Spain) would love the Euro to collapse, trouble is they have been waiting for nearly three years now and it and the EU are still here.[/quote]

Pots and kettles Q? Bit like you waiting and praying for the pound to collapse. [:P]

[/quote]

Oh come on get real, I'm not 'hoping and preying' the pound collapses I simply said it may get to 1:1 or worse and that I can't see it getting any better that 1.16. It does not worry me as I have worked in Euros for many years now although if it did collapse I might be tempted to buy some. [;-)]

[/quote]

Q don't tell me to get real mate, [:D] Every opportunity that comes along you rubbish the pound, just take a look at your past posts you are constantly harping on, and every time the pound dips you are braying , but you never say anything when it goes up. It's obvious that you hoping and praying (even) for the pound to collapse as you have obviously sunk all your money into the Euro. Give us all a break it's getting boring

[/quote]

Actually whats getting VERY boring is all these people that at every opportunity say the Euro and the EU is doomed, won't last the week etc, etc. Every time you look in the papers or on the news it's they say this and have been saying this for over two and a half years yet it's STILL here, the EU is STILL here just as it always is. The whole object is to take peoples mind off whats happening in their own country by slagging something or somebody else off. Many, like pensioners living inside the Eurozone would love to see it fall but it hasn't and it won't. The problem is they listen to these DH's and hang on, some even borrowing money, because these experts have been saying for all these years it will collapse tomorrow and for them life will return to as before. Seems to me when somebody 'has a go' at the Sterling then it's boring, try putting the boot on the other foot for a change. Perhaps all the experts should give the Euro a break because after all these years or doom and gloom it REALLY is getting boring. [:P]

[nomoss]

They probably had the same arguments about the Thaler [:)]

The last pan European currency, which lasted almost 400 years (according to Wiki).

[Frederick]

It seems the Greeks in large numbers feel the time has come to change their euros into gold coins ..

http://2012patriot.wordpress.com/2011/06/22/greeks-empty-bank-savings-and-buy-gold/

[pachapapa]

Nice one! Bookmarked.[:)]

http://2012patriot.wordpress.com/

 

[Quillan]

I don't think it makes a lot of difference really. What they are trying to do is not have money in banks to get round paying tax by hiding their gold under the bed or simply wearing it (rings, chains etc) especially with the planned tax increases required before Greece gets any more money.

The problem with Greece is that it's government has continually lied to it's people and the EU about it's deficit whilst spending money that it never had. A large percentage of it's workers work in the public sector and there is not enough workers in the private sector paying tax to pay the public sectors wages. Somebody explained it the other day in very simplistic terms. If you have a public worker on 10k per year and pays 25% tax he/she is really earning 7.5k per year so you need three private sector workers, each earning 10k per year paying 25% tax to pay his/her salary. Clearly when you have anywhere between 45 and 50% of your workforce in the public sector there simply is not enough in the private sector to pay their salaries. Then of course you have all the other things you need tax money to pay for so in reality you need a ratio of five private sector employees paying tax to every public employee.

We have an American guest just leave and he was saying last night (or should I say nite) that The Tea Party is putting pressure on Congress to default on it's current loans because the US simply can't afford them. I am led to believe, but have not researched this, that much of the debt is owed to China. Their (The Tea Party) logic is that America is China's biggest importer and that China needs America so defaulting wouldn't cause any real problems. Sounds like playing with fire to me but when I looked on their website this is where they want to go. I was also surprised to read that The Tea Party is quite feared by all politicians in the US and will have a major impact on how people will vote in 2012. Apparently they are like some sort of consumer group with no real allegiance to any political party they simply list candidates, what they have done in the past, any 'dodgy dealings' they may have done and how they voted on certain issues in the past leaving you to choose who you want to vote for. Having said that and having read some of their website it seems to me they are are rather right of centre politically and if they could get Congress to default on it's loans what would the knock on effect for the rest of the world would be, would the Dollar collapse completely through lack of confidence? I forgot to say, The Tea Party claim today that it is their lobbying that has force Obama to bring 32,000 troops home from Afghanistan and they want all troops off foreign soil in the next five years. If that is true then it shows they do have quite a bit of political 'clout'.

[pachapapa]

I think they , the greeks, are moving their money into something with a negotiable intrinsic value rather than worrying about tax; they seem to consider that the bankruptcy of greek banks is a definite possibility. I agree with them.

[breizh]

[quote user="Quillan"]

The problem with Greece is that it's government has continually lied to it's people and the EU about it's deficit whilst spending money that it never had. A large percentage of it's workers work in the public sector and there is not enough workers in the private sector paying tax to pay the public sectors wages. Somebody explained it the other day in very simplistic terms. If you have a public worker on 10k per year and pays 25% tax he/she is really earning 7.5k per year so you need three private sector workers, each earning 10k per year paying 25% tax to pay his/her salary. Clearly when you have anywhere between 45 and 50% of your workforce in the public sector there simply is not enough in the private sector to pay their salaries. Then of course you have all the other things you need tax money to pay for so in reality you need a ratio of five private sector employees paying tax to every public employee.

[/quote]

Assuming the only tax paid by the populous is income based. So, we ignore TVA, plus valeur, fuel/alcohol/tobacco duties, corporation taxe, property taxes, etc, etc??[8-)]

Interesting you should take as true the ramblings of a minor, ultra right-wing, political movement. Welcome to the home of Redneck, ultra christians, trust you feel completely at home. Don't forget your Bible, and your gun [:-))]

[Quillan]

[quote user="breizh"][quote user="Quillan"]

The problem with Greece is that it's government has continually lied to it's people and the EU about it's deficit whilst spending money that it never had. A large percentage of it's workers work in the public sector and there is not enough workers in the private sector paying tax to pay the public sectors wages. Somebody explained it the other day in very simplistic terms. If you have a public worker on 10k per year and pays 25% tax he/she is really earning 7.5k per year so you need three private sector workers, each earning 10k per year paying 25% tax to pay his/her salary. Clearly when you have anywhere between 45 and 50% of your workforce in the public sector there simply is not enough in the private sector to pay their salaries. Then of course you have all the other things you need tax money to pay for so in reality you need a ratio of five private sector employees paying tax to every public employee.

[/quote]

Assuming the only tax paid by the populous is income based. So, we ignore TVA, plus valeur, fuel/alcohol/tobacco duties, corporation taxe, property taxes, etc, etc??[8-)]

Interesting you should take as true the ramblings of a minor, ultra right-wing, political movement. Welcome to the home of Redneck, ultra christians, trust you feel completely at home. Don't forget your Bible, and your gun [:-))]

[/quote]

Well I did say it was a simplistic explanation.

As to The Tea Party, well I have heard them mentioned on UK news once or twice in the past but never paid much attention and I am not that interested in American politics either. Did they really get Obama to bring all these troops back, I don't know, but it is clear talking (admittedly only a very small group) to Americans face to face who have stayed here they all seem to think that the how ever trillion Dollars a month the Afghan and Iraq wars are costing them the US should withdraw and use the money back home (in the US). Mind you if you look at UK news papers many say the same thing about the UK's involvement in these countries and it's something I personally agree with. As for a Bible and gun, I have no interest in either and certainly have no interest in ultra right wing politics. I would still like to know what effect it would have on the world economy if the US did default on it's loans, could they actually do it and are most of its loans from China?