What happens if the UK leaves the EU

[Aly]

In the last week Delors, Monti, Hollande, Berluscooni, Merkel and Rompey have all commented on the scenario should the Uk leave the EU. It looks increasingly likely that some kind of referendum will occur. The French and Germans have said that the UK cannot cherry pick the bits it likes so where does that leave things for the UK in a future EU state. Especially with growing Euroscepticism..I am curious as to what our rights would be in any such event. Undoubtably as established residents we would have rights as would EU residents in the UK but would we retain them all?

[idun]

Remember that there is a huge french population in the UK, so I'm sure that they will sort something out, especially as the french in the UK can vote in France.

[woolybanana]

Leaving may be total or partial. I doubt the former. Mere repatriation of powers and then a trading relationship would be an ideal option, but I doubt other member states would stand for such a simple solution. Cherry picking seems unlikely.

[mint]

[quote user="idun"]

Remember that there is a huge french population in the UK, so I'm sure that they will sort something out, especially as the french in the UK can vote in France.

[/quote]

There is, however, a difference in the demographics, id.  As I understand it, most of the French in the UK are young, working people and are therefore automatically entitled to health care (for a start ) in the UK.  Also, as I understand it, most of the Brits in France are retired people who, if the powers-to-be are to be believed, do nothing than make demands on the French health care system [:(]

It's a good question to ask, Aly, and also a good time to ask, it but the answer might not be forthcoming for some time yet![I]

[idun]

Ah but sweet 17, we live in the UK where people are entitled to health care, but we still need an S1 from France, so any changes could well have effects on us too.

[Rabbie]

Hopefully this will not happen but the there is a stromg current of anti-EU feeling in the UK at present. There is a real danger that Cameron may take the UK out of the EU by mistake.

It is clearly not reasonable to expect to be able to cherry-pick the bits we like and not accept the bits we don't like.  Lets hope that any decision that is made is arrived at on rational grounds and not on emotional ones.

I find a certain irony in english unionists critising Alex Salmond for saying an independent Scotland ccould be in the EU while wanting to leave themselves.` perhaps the solution is for England and Wales to leave the UK and for Scotland to keep the UK membership[:D]. O f course the membership fee would need to be renegociated then[6]

[PaulT]

[quote user="Rabbie"]

Hopefully this will not happen but the there is a stromg current of anti-EU feeling in the UK at present. There is a real danger that Cameron may take the UK out of the EU by mistake.

It is clearly not reasonable to expect to be able to cherry-pick the bits we like and not accept the bits we don't like.  Lets hope that any decision that is made is arrived at on rational grounds and not on emotional ones.

[/quote]

Surely, if the UK leaves the EU it will be because of the outcome of a referendum - so no mistake by Cameron.

The problem will be in the information fed to the voting public. The Lib Dems seem to have injured themselves due to the coalition and perhaps their leader. The Conservatives must be a little fearful of UKIP and whilst the latter has a total non EU stand there are many eurosceptics in the former.

The UK press constantly highlights the perceived meddling by Brussels, especially in relation to 'Human Rights' issues and the handing over of sovereignty.

The overall policies of Labour seem unclear.

How balanced will the arguments be for and against? Will there be a minimum turnout required to avoid apathy winnning the day? Or will a compromise be reached?

[sid]

post deleted

[Rabbie]

PaulT, the mistake I was thinking of was for Cameron to get into a situation where he was forced to hold a referendum regardless of the consequences. A referendum is likely to be decided on emotional rhetoric rather than rational analysis. That is the nature of these things. Too often in the past British political parties have been split over the EU. This has lead to a half-hearted approach to the EU which has not won us many friends there. In my opinion we are better off inside where we can to some extent influence decisions than outside where we would have no direct say in any decisions.

[Aly]

I think a referendum is a long time coming and is needed by the tories if they are going to have any chance to win the next election. I doubt that the EU will allow the UK to cherry pick as that will open the doors for others to demand like changes ie the Swedes, Poles etc. However a two tier EU already exists with the eurozone and with those countries moving towards a federal state. Like it or not there are some truths in the British publics perceptions. The EU is undemocratic and wasteful. The UK contributes yet France a bigger economy recieves the lions share of the entire budget  because of a decades old policy on agricultural subsidies. Where is French solidarity on abannonding these payments in the name of fairness. Does the UK influence  as a member- I think not they just veto. Decisions are made by France and Germany. The other outcome, which is beginnning to play out and one raised by economists is that France will bring the whole thing crashing down as it is not addressing its deficit or the need for structural reforms  and is  now rapidly moving towards a crisis posistion. The next couple of years will be interesting.

[mint]

[quote user="Aly"] The next couple of years will be interesting.
[/quote]

So, there IS some substance to the Chinese curse.....as in "may you live in interesting times"?

[Rabbie]

Aly, France is actually a net contributor to the EU budget despite the agricultural subsidy. See this link for confirmation. This just shows how many euro myths are being circulated in this argument.

[Frederick]

Turkey is now moving away from joining the EU .They can see it has turned out  to be a place they want nothing to do with . Greece needs another  huge lump of cash in 5 months to keep going .  France has a huge dependency on the public purse to pay  masses of civic servants along with huge unemployment and those in work paying tax  who are not  planning leave, are now  reaching  down into empty pockets . .  The way things are going the UK may not have to make any decision to leave the EU   By the time the UK needs to vote  it may not exist as it is today. .  Its obvious it is  not working  in the form it is in now . It may fall apart  then have to be re assembled into something smaller that people can see is  working ...And who knows perhaps then the UK may find its a place they want to be 100% connected with .. We live in hope ! 

[Rabbie]

There is never going to be a solution to this that pleases everyone. All I want is a sensible solution reached by considering the facts and not one reached by reaction to emotional misinformation.

As Churchill said if I recall correctly "Democracy is a flawed system but it is impossible to find a better system".

[PaulT]

[quote user="Rabbie"]

There is never going to be a solution to this that pleases everyone. All I want is a sensible solution reached by considering the facts and not one reached by reaction to emotional misinformation.

As Churchill said if I recall correctly "Democracy is a flawed system but it is impossible to find a better system".

[/quote]

Rabbie, the problem is getting the facts. Each political party will present facts including some 'stretching' that support their corner - creating an absolute minefield.

[Aly]

[quote user="Rabbie"]Aly, France is actually a net contributor to the EU budget despite the agricultural subsidy. See this link for confirmation. This just shows how many euro myths are being circulated in this argument.[/quote]

I appreciate the myths but the argumensts and formulas are complex. and either side can rationalise its position. The CAP is outdated why not use the funds to support the unemployd getting people into work or small enterprise - why farming, relevent in the past, but now? simply because it suits the French, France gets more than twice as much CAP funds than the UK

(22% of total funds compared to the UK's 9%) which in cash terms is a

net benefit that France gets over and above what the UK gets from the

CAP of €6.37m billion. If the  UK rebate were removed without changes to the CAP then the UK would

pay a larger net contribution than France. The UK would make a net

contribution of approximately €10bn compared to the current contribution

of €3.86bn, versus a current French net contribution of €6.46 billion. The UK has a slightly lower GDP than France,

Lets not forget the French rejected in a referendum the EU constitution. The negativity is not ust a UK thing. The UK leaving may well effect me negatively but I think all europeans need to be asked and presented with the facts. The myths work both ways - remember we were all told the EU was not a super state in planning, our sovereignty was not under threat, the Euro was the future.

[Rabbie]

[quote user="PaulT"][quote user="Rabbie"]

There is never going to be a solution to this that pleases everyone. All I want is a sensible solution reached by considering the facts and not one reached by reaction to emotional misinformation.

As Churchill said if I recall correctly "Democracy is a flawed system but it is impossible to find a better system".

[/quote]

Rabbie, the problem is getting the facts. Each political party will present facts including some 'stretching' that support their corner - creating an absolute minefield.

[/quote]I agree. The facts in this will be very elusive and well hidden in smokescreens of spin. That's why I feel it's too important to be left to a simple referendum which favours a simple Yes/No answer. IMO it's best left for our democratic parliament to decide

[mint]

Rabbie, I agree about referendums.  You can get whatever answer you want just by tweaking the question.

I am sure that if the UK had a referendum on hanging, the majority will be for it[+o(]

So, you are right about government being left to our democratically elected representatives.  We elect and pay them to debate contentious issues and sort them out.

[DerekJ]

[quote user="sweet 17"]

So, you are right about government being left to our democratically elected representatives.  We elect and pay them to debate contentious issues and sort them out.[/quote]

But many of us don't trust or respect them.

This applies across parties.

[Aly]

[quote user="sweet 17"]

Rabbie, I agree about referendums.  You can get whatever answer you want just by tweaking the question.

I am sure that if the UK had a referendum on hanging, the majority will be for it[+o(]

So, you are right about government being left to our democratically elected representatives.  We elect and pay them to debate contentious issues and sort them out.

[/quote]

Obviously the French and Irish didn`t tweak well enough when they had referendums. Lets hope the Scots are not to good at tweaking as they will end up with independence

[mint]

[quote user="DerekJ"][quote user="sweet 17"] So, you are right about government being left to our democratically elected representatives.  We elect and pay them to debate contentious issues and sort them out.[/quote] But many of us don't trust or respect them. This applies across parties.[/quote]

Ah, yes, there is that little matter of course![+o(]

[mint]

[quote user="Aly"]

Obviously the French and Irish didn`t tweak well enough when they had referendums. Lets hope the Scots are not to good at tweaking as they will end up with independence
[/quote]

And, if they do, it will serve them right![6]

[PaulT]

[quote user="Rabbie"][quote user="PaulT"][quote user="Rabbie"]

There is never going to be a solution to this that pleases everyone. All I want is a sensible solution reached by considering the facts and not one reached by reaction to emotional misinformation.

As Churchill said if I recall correctly "Democracy is a flawed system but it is impossible to find a better system".

[/quote]

Rabbie, the problem is getting the facts. Each political party will present facts including some 'stretching' that support their corner - creating an absolute minefield.

[/quote]I agree. The facts in this will be very elusive and well hidden in smokescreens of spin. That's why I feel it's too important to be left to a simple referendum which favours a simple Yes/No answer. IMO it's best left for our democratic parliament to decide[/quote]

But will not the democratic parliament members be fed the same spin that Joe Public would be and therefore not make an unbiased informed judgement? And are the pros and cons black and white but various shades of grey due to a load of what ifs requiring a crystal ball.

And Sweets I am one who would put my hand up for hanging but with some safeguards built in. As a taxpayer I do not wish to pay to incarcerate people who are no good to society some of whom will never get parole and therefore will be a burden on the taxpayer for life. If someone premeditatively murders another person or persons why should they have the right to life themselves.

[Hoddy]

I remember voting in the last EU referendum. I read conscientiously all the arguments, which at that time were all about trade, and found it quite impossible to judge what on a rational basis what would be best for the UK.

In the end I quite consciously voted with my emotions. I can quite see that I might do the same again if I were equally confused.

Hoddy

[Théière]

I'm rather fond of cherries