How are ex UK people doing

[Maricopa]

[quote user="ErnieY"]You've lost me there Maricopa [8-)][/quote]

Sorry Ernie, old naval habits.  A watch is a period of duty, and due to the amount of time it would have taken to compile your post concerning quotes about money, I thought perhaps you had liitle to do at the moment in time.[Www]

 

[allanb]

Quillan: for people whose living depends on importing, I agree that the falling value of sterling is bad news.  Your friend's brother is in the same boat as my hypothetical Lamborghini salesman.

But surely for most people the most important thing is keeping a job, or finding a new one if you've lost one, and a cheap pound is good for employment in most industries; it makes it easier for domestic products to compete with some of the imports you mentioned.  And it's also good for investment from overseas (I mean real investment, the kind that creates jobs.)

[woolybanana]

No, because it just stores up problems for later on as the bills have to be paid. Stable money is what is needed.

[Benjamin]

[quote user="allanb"]

But surely for most people the most important thing is keeping a job, or finding a new one if you've lost one, and a cheap pound is good for employment in most industries; it makes it easier for domestic products to compete with some of the imports you mentioned.  And it's also good for investment from overseas (I mean real investment, the kind that creates jobs.)

[/quote]

You mean making things as in JCB and Land Rover?

It can be as cheap as you like but if nobody wants to buy it.............[Www]

[AnOther]

[quote user="Maricopa"]Sorry Ernie, old naval habits. A watch is a period of duty......[/quote]I took you literally but got you now and no way did I type that lot in, all own to the wonders (or is that curses) of Copy-n-paste [8-|]

[Quillan]

[quote user="You can call me Betty"][quote user="Quillan"]

I was wondering how they coped getting their 60" plasma TV though that stupid size measuring thing for baggage at Stanstead and how much Ryanair charge to put it in the hold [;-)] . Perhaps they fold it in half [:D] . Afterthought, knowing Ryanair they probably do it for you when your not looking just before it goes in the hold [6] .

[/quote]

Yeah, a great example..........I'm sure they all come here to buy plasma TV's that don't work in France. [:D]

[/quote]

Er the digital ones do, so do the HD versions, even my old 15 year old Philips works in France and the UK. It's called multi standard I believe so actually most of the modern TV's work OK in both countries (unless you buy a really, really cheap one).[:D]

[allanb]

[quote user="Benjamin"]You mean making things as in JCB and Land Rover?

It can be as cheap as you like but if nobody wants to buy it...[/quote]

I said it makes it easier to compete.  I didn't say it guarantees that you will succeed with every product.

Do you believe that an expensive pound makes it easier?  Do you think that JCB and Land Rover would like to see a rise in sterling?

[Quillan]

[quote user="Benjamin"][quote user="allanb"]

But surely for most people the most important thing is keeping a job, or finding a new one if you've lost one, and a cheap pound is good for employment in most industries; it makes it easier for domestic products to compete with some of the imports you mentioned.  And it's also good for investment from overseas (I mean real investment, the kind that creates jobs.)

[/quote]

You mean making things as in JCB and Land Rover?

It can be as cheap as you like but if nobody wants to buy it.............[Www]

[/quote]

Isn't Landrover and Jaguar now owned by Tata from India?

[Benjamin]

[quote user="allanb"][quote user="Benjamin"]You mean making things as in JCB and Land Rover?

It can be as cheap as you like but if nobody wants to buy it...[/quote]

I said it makes it easier to compete.  I didn't say it guarantees that you will succeed with every product.

Do you believe that an expensive pound makes it easier?  Do you think that JCB and Land Rover would like to see a rise in sterling?

[/quote]

In normal times allanb I would agree with you but these aren't normal times. JCB and Land Rover are iconic British products recognised around the World but they are laying off workers or having short time working and the bad news is piling up almost by the day (JCB announced another 400 job losses only yesterday).

I also do not have your confidence that those who do lose their jobs will easily find new ones.

[Benjamin]

[quote user="Quillan"][quote user="Benjamin"][quote user="allanb"]

But surely for most people the most important thing is keeping a job, or finding a new one if you've lost one, and a cheap pound is good for employment in most industries; it makes it easier for domestic products to compete with some of the imports you mentioned.  And it's also good for investment from overseas (I mean real investment, the kind that creates jobs.)

[/quote]

You mean making things as in JCB and Land Rover?

It can be as cheap as you like but if nobody wants to buy it.............[Www]

[/quote]

Isn't Landrover and Jaguar now owned by Tata from India?

[/quote]

Yes, but what's your point?

[Quillan]

None really Ben just thought I would throw that in as they are no longer a British owned group of companies, mind you they haven't been for years now.

JCB - Good point and sad that people are loosing their jobs. Is it not the case that the world is going in to recession (by various degrees) and what you are seeing is the knock on effect. I think JCB are not getting the orders because construction work has slowed and even got to a halt in may countries world wide, Spain is a prime example as is the UK. A good, simple and graphic example was given on the TV the other night.

The price of recycling paper paper has dropped from £90 per Ton to £15 and the companies that supply it from the UK (one of the world biggest suppliers) are having to lay people off and some have gone bust.

China was the biggest import of recycling paper because they make the box's they use to transport their exports in.

People in America and Europe have drastically cut back on their buying because there is no credit because people are not investing in those countries (cr@p interest rates).

The demand from China for recycling paper has therefore diminished.

Fixing just the UK won't work if you are looking at exports, people need to want your goods and its not just the exchange rate that has an effect if your on the wrong side of it. Ice cream sales always drop in winter [;-)] .

[allanb]

[quote user="Benjamin"]In normal times allanb I would agree with you but these aren't normal times. JCB and Land Rover are iconic British products recognised around the World but they are laying off workers or having short time working and the bad news is piling up almost by the day (JCB announced another 400 job losses only yesterday).

I also do not have your confidence that those who do lose their jobs will easily find new ones.[/quote]I didn't say they would.  I'm not at all confident about that.

We all know that the economy is in bad shape, business is terrible, there's a shortage of credit, companies are shrinking, and people are losing jobs.  All I'm saying is that a cheaper pound will help UK business by making it more competitive.

It still won't be good.  But it will be less bad than it would otherwise be.  If you don't agree, pretend you're a sales manager (for JCB, perhaps) and think about the likely effect of a more expensive pound.

[Martin963]

I've been following this debate with much interest,   and would say at the outset that my knowledge of economics is confined to one small unit of study whilst at university,  in order to escape from my prime (and hated) subject of Chemistry.

However,  what was drummed into us back then (1978) was that a devalued pound could only be justified if it was combined with policies (both govermnment and "general") to promote an "export-led recovery".    Problem is that this rarely happens,  exporters tend to use the comfort zone of a more competitive £ to increase their margins (a natural response) and thus squander their lower-£-induced competitive edge.

This has already happened this time round,  I can't quote the source but I've read that already in the autumn British exporters have put their prices up so that the $ or € or whatever price hasn't been sufficiently interesting to foreigners to make them buy more or change their suppliers in our (Britain's) favour.

The other thing that has changed since 1978 is that we don't - as far as I can see - export much that the world actually needs.   I know we have invisible exports,  but to be honest I don't think we can rely on these for much longer.   I have to admit I'm a grow it/mine it/make it enthusiast,  so I'm the first to admit I'm biased,  but a falling £ - whilst helping a few firms for which much thanks - isn't going to help Britain plc in general out of its current hole;  quite the reverse as it'll help fuel inflation (which could so easily re-appear if the oil price goes back up).   If we already had a large trade surplus the story would of course be quite different.

It always seems to me that the falling £ is the lazy way out of our holes (1966,  1978,  1992,  and now) and sooner or later we're not going to have even that option left.   I'm not suggesting that we should make the £ go up,  or defend it just for the sake of it,  but we look more and more like those banana republics when we keep letting the £ go down without at the same time being rigorous about demanding that export-led recovery in return.

As I say,  it's not my expertise,  but I fear that we're just storing more and more trouble up for ourselves by devaluing and borrowing whilst relying on consumers as the driving force of our economy.

I have to say that I am now in total despair,  the only saving feature being that 25 year ago I read a book called "The Downwave" by Bob Beckman.   Whilst he got his timing completely wrong (he predicted the asset bubble burst as happening in 1984 ish) the words of his book are coming chillingly true quite literally page by page now.    He foresaw the banking crash with horrible accuracy.

Sad part is he died last Christmas and so hasn't seen his views vindicated....

As I say,  please don't yell at me,  I'm only an interested bystander and am happy to be corrected (gently!)

[Benjamin]

In these particular set of circunstances allanb I personally don't see a cheaper £ making any difference whatsoever to the UK's export market.

Take my JCB job loss quote as an example. The 400 job losses announced yesterday are solely down to one factor: the Ukranian economy has collapsed, the country is effectively bankrupt and has no foreign exchange to pay for any goods.

The Ukraine was very important for JCB as it's largest single export market but no amount of weakening of the £ is going to help in this particular case. The Ukraine has simply stopped buying and to a lesser degree so have large swathes of the rest of the World. It isn't price that's causing the hurt at the moment it's a complete lack of confidence in buying anything unless it is absolutely neccessary.

Take the reverse example of letting your currency weaken in order that imported goods become more expensive and you control domestic demand using this as a tool. When Clinton was in power he made strenuous efforts to control America's growing balance of payments problems.

Along comes George Bush and we never hear balance of payments mentioned again as George's administration was happy to let the $ drift lower as a brake on imports. It simply did not work and American consumers carried on and borrowed the money to buy what they wanted. Toyota took over as the largest car manufacturer in the World and GM and Ford headed south.

I think we're going to differ in our opinions come what may but thank you for the debate.  [:D]

[Benjamin]

Quillan

My earlier response, on reflection (Yes, but what's your point?) now looks a little sharp and it wasn't meant to.

There was a bit on UK news last evening about the Government having to look at using MoD land to store the waste paper that is being recycled because there are simply no takers.  [8-)]

[WJT]

I know very little about this but discussing it with my husband, he would agree with Martinwatkins. It appears to me that the UK is mainly a service industry nowadays and benefits from a strong currency.

 I would be interested to know what the percentage of the economy manufacturing makes up now in the UK.

[Martin963]

Mrs WJT - perhaps you'd better introduce us!!

[WJT]

[quote user="Martinwatkins"]Mrs WJT - perhaps you'd better introduce us!!
[/quote]

[:D]

WJT is my maiden name initials so I could introduce you to Mr. WJT but you could be asking for trouble. [:D]

[allanb]

[quote user="WJT"]It appears to me that the UK is mainly a service industry nowadays and benefits from a strong currency.[/quote]Benjamin and I seem to have beaten each other into the ground, so I won't revive that argument (at least, not yet) but this is a new point: can you explain why service industries benefit from a strong currency?

[Jako]

Considering the debt of the UK, the kind of economy is now irrelevant.

The UK gets richer with every decline of the currency as this decreases the huge debt situation.

[Babbles]

OH came up with an idea in relation to tax cuts that GB is angling for, the problem being as we don't really make much now all that would would happen would be that people would go out by some chinese made, clothes a far eastern TV etc and although that would help uk retail it doesn't really help the economy so his idea would be reduced VAT on certain areas such as restaurant meals or basiclly anything that emlpoyees a reasonable amount of people and that adds value or is british made, which with my not very good grade A level Economics seemed to make sense. I think the most difficult thing in getting people to spend again is the feeling of wealth, which unfortunate as it is, is related to a British person, how much their house is worth and how much equity is in it. With all the irresponsible lending that has taken place the pendulum has swung way to far the other way and we need to be in a position where sensible lending takes place to housebuyers and businesses to get things moving again.

[Quillan]

[quote user="Benjamin"]Quillan

My earlier response, on reflection (Yes, but what's your point?) now looks a little sharp and it wasn't meant to.

There was a bit on UK news last evening about the Government having to look at using MoDMoD land to store the waste paper that is being recycled because there are simply no takers.  [8-)]

[/quote]

No problem Ben I took it as it was meant, just a question and nothing more. Now bog off............only joking [;-)] .

I don't have time but if somebody can have a search on the BCC website in the business section there was article which states quite well why low interest rates are not good for the UK at present, sort of backs up what I and others were saying.

Shame about that Tory pr@t having the 'boat' question hanging over his head (which allows him to be ridiculed by Labour) as I thought what he said about GB borrowing his way out of trouble (was it in the Times) was bang on, if you borrow you have to pay back. In this case GB borrows and the British tax payer pays for it for years and years and years.

[krusty]

[quote user="Quillan"]
British tax payer pays for it for years and years and years.
[/quote]

British tax payers are good at paying back , they did it for many years to the USA for the help in ww2.

[WJT]

[quote user="allanb"][quote user="WJT"]It appears to me that the UK is mainly a service industry nowadays and benefits from a strong currency.[/quote]Benjamin and I seem to have beaten each other into the ground, so I won't revive that argument (at least, not yet) but this is a new point: can you explain why service industries benefit from a strong currency?


[/quote]

I am certainly no economist and perhaps that comment proves it. Thinking about it,  I would imagine that it wouldn't have much effect either way. However, not being a manufacturing country like Germany, I can't see where the devalue of the pound would help much at all outside of making debts worth less in real value terms that is.

[Bugsy]

[quote user="allanb"][quote user="Bugbear"]Well Ron, there are several recent examples of rate falls immediately following negative comments by people in power.[/quote]That proves nothing: there are plenty of examples of "negative comments by people in power" that were not followed by rate falls. 

You are falling into the trap of thinking that because X is followed by Y, Y must have been caused by X. 

[/quote]

Here you go

I guess we'll see tomorrow Allan......................................[;-)]

.