Don't blame the UK - EU hoisted by their own petard

[just john]

 -dont-blame-UK-for-eurozones-failure-to-put-its-house-in-order.

Merkozy plan a mechanism to tax the City of London to pay the EU debts

 -new-EU-plan-abuses-power-say-lawyers.

Legal advice warns that the breakaway group of 26 countries cannot use the EU institutions or change European treaties without Britain’s consent.

 

[Bugsy]

And they will continue to argue their own personal agendas whilst all around them is failing until the whole thing goes down the toilet.

Reminds me of a sweaty fat bloke in a toga with a laurel-leaf hat and a musical instrument in his hands.

[IMG]http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/p211/Bugbear2/fiddling-while-rome-burns.jpg[/IMG]

 .

[Bill]

[quote user="just john "]

 

Legal advice warns that the breakaway group of 26 countries cannot use the EU institutions or change European treaties without Britain’s consent.

 

[/quote]

 

but within an hour the  three main men from the institutions, (commission, bank , and president ) were talking how they could use the facilities by using  the "broad" meaning of the rules..   nothing changed there then..

 

I dont believe the french have ever paid the fine reagding the blocking of the sale of British Beef  post BSE .. hey ho.. so they wont pay any other fine,

.

our lot were clearly  out manouvered by very clever french people with germans doing a good job of support.. but they havent fixed anything, other than kicking the Brits out of the game .. & it proves a veto is worthless

 

I hope we will still be well received by locals in Normandy.. or is it best not to come and buy  !!!!!

Bill ..

 

 

[Rabbie]

[quote user="just john "]

Legal advice warns that the breakaway group of 26 countries cannot use the EU institutions or change European treaties without Britain’s consent.

[/quote]The BBC has reported there won't be a new Treaty just an inter-govermental agreement. Seems like this gets round some of the legalities.

[Bill]

yes robbie, but they still want to use the institutions of the eu to do the work, whereas intergovernmental is a different ball game.. and is by its very nature outside of the eu remit

hence their desire for a  broad reading of the rules , I mentioned before.. In other words the commision and all run around do the work stiff the brits and we pay..  quite immoral.

On the other hand the euro needs a rescue and the brits shouldnt stand in the way , on such a small matter as protocol and cost, ..

[pachapapa]

Is the telegraph allied to the mail or just slightly dafter.

A vacant ceremonial chair will be kept at all meetings of the 27 for the pathetic etonian.

i.e. 26 chairs occupied and one......are you getting the picture.....[:-))]

[nomoss]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YG5DlsJGnHg

[Mac]

"pachapapa"Is the telegraph allied to the mail or just slightly dafter.

A vacant ceremonial chair will be kept at all meetings of the 27 for the pathetic etonian.

i.e. 26 chairs occupied and one......are you getting the picture.....

You seem to think that Cameron should have signed just so not to be 'left out' of the party. I hold no brief for him-in fact I have never voted Conservative-but if he really felt/believed that it was wrong for the UK why should he agree?. Aren't politicians supposed to put THEIR country first? Would French premier have signed or agreed to anything that remotely was against French interests? Don't think so.

[Alan Zoff]

It could be the UK who will be considered to have been hoisted by its own petard - by allowing itself to become overdependent on London's financial centre.

[just john]

you might be right, I guess after 700 hundred years perhaps it's time for a change, . . . though, what would make up the shortfall exactly?

[Quillan]

Love it "The plan by France and Germany to build a separate fiscal union after Britain blocked changes to the European Union’s treaty is an “abuse of power”, according to confidential legal advice.". So confidential that the Telegraph knows all about it.

Well whats it to be, I wish people would make up their minds. People have said for years in the UK that the EU courts are worse than useless and anyway nobody, apart form the UK, takes any notice of them. Using that as an example then should they go down this route, which I think is highly unlikely,  and should the EU courts find in their favour who's going to take any notice. The Euro is the major EU currency with more countries going to join (well OK at least one other), how can you have debates in the EU about things like regional grants without talking in Euro's?

Personally I think Cameron had one of these "Oh sh*t what have I just gone and done" moments on the train (or plane) on the way home and is now looking to send up a load of smoke and construct a few mirrors to boot.

[pachapapa]

Perhaps he needs a convenient "book emmysair"...I nominate Clegg.[:)]

[just john]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8950101/Were-right-about-the-euro-thats-why-Europe-is-angry.html

As usual some of the comments are not a million miles from the truth

Already they have demonstrated to the USA and Asia that they cannot run the Euro-block in a professional manner and that has thrown doubt on their own personal credibility and trustworthiness.

Seems strange that while we have people in Russia demonstrating against an autocracy, some leaders of the EU seem to want to move towards one.

[pachapapa]

Autumn Term School Report;

Pupil: Nikolas Sarkozy

Too little, too late.

Pupil: David Cameron

Too much, too soon.

[just john]

Well I've not got much faith in school reports, lets see what happens if the euro collapses and the landscape changes, will we even be talking Merkozy ?

 

[pachapapa]

Not sure on the murky side.

A complete collapse of the euro would be equivalent to winning again the franco-prussian war, the first world war, the second world war, return of reparations and Charlamagne on the throne.

By that time sulky right wing hungarian 1940's nuances would have been  popped in the historic "poubelle".

[just john]

Collapse includes structure / exchange rate fall; just a bit more than that bit of paper . . .

[pachapapa]

[quote user="just john "]Collapse includes structure / exchange rate fall; just a bit more than that bit of paper . . .[/quote]

The churning of low quality GC through the ECB will soon mean that the ECB will be forced to hyper-hypotheticaly loan on tick against zero collateral. The credit crunch approaching will focus minds and instill fear.

[Bill]

sterling is stronger only because the fx market is expecting a big sterling buy, to facilitate a bid for a parmaceutical company..

 

My fear is that the euro will not fix it self, even if it wants to , Let's say they cobble a German led deal together,  it then has to get the intergovernmental deal past the Irish , who have to have a referendum , even two if they get it wrong the first time. !

 

Part of the intergovernmental deal will be a standardisation of corperation tax  .. That will alone wipe out the Irish economy, unless of course Europe give the ""Irish city""  a special deal/ten year breathing space .  When they do that, then we all know how much they hate the Brits.

feeling lonely !

Bill

 

edit..

PS   I  made a mistake of saying earlier, euro was strong against the dollar today monday, , that was incorrect euro is weaker. sorry..

 

 

[woolybanana]

And the sinister sharks are gathering or democracy is raising its "ugly" head, at last:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/9992111

[Frederick]

Italy.......   The unions getting  together .http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgcXOvauGlg

[krusty]

When Sarkozy goes it looks like changes for the treety.

quote "Francois Hollande the French socialist leader (who is now likely to take over from Sarkozy) has said If I'm elected president I'll renegotiate this deal to include what is missing today "...."Sarkozy has begun to make up ground on his challenger, but all opinion poll organisations still predict a Hollande win in the second round of voting."

http://www.france24.com/en/20111212-fre ... te-eu-pact

[Bill]

I think all are affected one way or another by  fx rates..   and some general comment if of interest.

 

these are LLoyds banks forecast of future rates on a qtrly basis starting with december this year. Thru to June 2013. I am pretty sure they are excluding any big bang from a collapse of the euro on politcal grounds, this is purely an economic outlook.  

 

£ £/eu                1.18     1.18     1.22     1.25     1.22     1.20     1.20     1.20

 

these rates are mid interbank rates so you may be exchanging at two to three percent from these rates.   

 

As all economists say,  my forecast is only valid  untill my next one.. in other words don't blame us if it goes the other way & we change our mind  !!!

The capital repatriation refered to below is banks bringing money back to europe, and buying euro's  and that has supported the euro over the past weeks..

rgds

Bill

 

on the euro , they said..

 

 

EU leaders have put forward their latest proposals to stem the

debt crisis. The statement following the December summit

signalled greater economic cooperation and a strengthened

rescue plan. However, much still remains to be resolved and

the euro is vulnerable to investor sentiment and could exhibit

significant volatility as events progress. Further, the impact of

the crisis on the real economy is becoming increasingly evident,

with an imminent recession and possible outright contraction

for 2012 as a whole looking likely. The ECB cut the refi rate to its

previous floor of 1% in December, however a further reduction

cannot be ruled out. Although sizeable capital repatriation should

help support the euro, our central forecast is for it to fall sharply

against its peers in the coming quarters, with targets for EUR/

USD and EUR/GBP lowered to 1.20 and 0.80 at end-Q2 2012

 

 

 

on sterling ..

Having traded above $1.61 in late October, sterling has since

fallen below $1.56. Concerns over the UK economy have

weighed on GBP/USD, but the recent fall has mainly reflected

the renewed strength of the US dollar following a recent spate

of stronger US data and ongoing concerns over the euro area.

Amid the euro crisis, sterling has continued to appreciate, with

GBP/EUR touching a recent high above €1.18. Looking ahead,

GBP/USD is forecast to drop further, weighed down by relatively

stronger growth prospects in the US and the likelihood of further

aggressive QE in the UK. Based on our central expectation that

the euro ‘muddles through’, sterling is forecast to appreciate to

€1.25 by end-Q2 2012, with the risks skewed towards a sharper

appreciation if the euro crisis continues to escalate. GBP/USD is

forecast to fall to 1.50 at end-Q2 2012.

 

 

[just john]

Who could blame them?

UK refuses to contribute to €200bn IMF package

• €200bn IMF-EU loan shrinks to €150bn after Britain refuses to lend £25bn

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2011/dec/19/eurozone-crisis-live

 

[pachapapa]

Oh Dear! the dwarf will not be pleased.[:)]

I wonder if his aides have translated a popular quote of a quote in monday's press;

Belgium’s leading business weekly, delivers a harsh verdict: “France’s inability to accept gracefully its political and economic decline has produced additional tension. Le grandeur de la France, once an undeniable reality, is now a thing of the past.” Burdened by an inferiority complex over France’s subordinate relationship with Germany, frustrated by the markets’ sceptical view of the French state’s finances, the elite in Paris lashes out at an imaginary conspiracy among Anglo-Saxon bond investors and their perceived henchmen, the ratings agencies.