anyone know what the euro is going to do?

[crossy67]

Xenophobe lol.

[Iceni]

[quote user="Alan Zoff"]

The answer to the question in your Message seems to be "Just about everyone".

[/quote]

Based on an exhausting and exhaustive study of € movements during it's short life there are 3 possibilities

1. it will strengthen

2. it will weaken

3. it will stay the same.

I know - a stupid, though accurate, answer but what could be more apt for a stupid question?

John

 

[cooperlola]

There's really only one answer to the original question, John....

No.

[Alan Zoff]

Not even Warren:

http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/warren-buffett-euro-faces-real-challenge-after-rally/a439310

[Quillan]

I believe he was one of those that months back said the Euro would be finished in 6 weeks. These people have a very vested interest in seeing the Euro drop and even fail. Call me a sceptic but I find it strange he mentioned this in the middle east where some countries are buying in to the Euro as opposed to the dollar. As I have said so many times before the Euros is not getting strong, it's the others getting week, just look at something like the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Cayman Island dollar, Hong Kong dollar even the Russian Rouble over the last 6 months, its moved just a few points. It's primarily just Sterling and the US dollar that has a problem and its their problem not the Euros's. If you want to check for yourself then use the link below.

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates

 

[tj]

There are some fundamental changes occuring which could determine the strength or weakness of the euro,the biggest factors at present are UK and US's dismal outlook, and the chinese buying euro bonds instead of dollar bonds,,,,,this is key to future euro strength, china the biggest economy on the planet will surely dictate as the us has done, the winners and losers.

in the short term and for the original poster, wait til the euro corrects a little it is overbought but a drop is inevitable, infact it happens everyday only it is closing higher so you dont see the drop unless you are following the market using live charts..

[Sprogster]

The £ seems to be drifting lower, as current spot rate is 1.1328. This means in practice you are going to get a rate when withdrawing Euros against a £ bank account through a French ATM of around 1.08 plus charges, which is near enough parity again.

[debbie]

What do you have against the U.S. Braco?

[Sprogster]

debbie, the US is instigating QE2, which is not the ship or Monarch, but a second round of quantative easing. This is weakening the US$, which is likely to continue to weaken against the Euro, as intended by the US government, as part of a competitive devaluation policy, to boost US exports and help cut the trade deficit. Goldman Sachs three month prediction for US$/Euro is 1.55.

[debbie]

I know it is not good over here and it will be a long while before our economy improves, assuming it will. Which makes our french mortgage payments higher (yuk!) But I thought you had something personal against the U.S. I hope not. Thanks for the clarification.

[Sprogster]

debbie, braco is not being anti US, just highlighting how overvalued the euro is against the $.

I sympathise with your situation, as I travel to the USA frequently and would say from a purchasing power comparative, one US$ equals one euro. Therefore, the current exchange rate makes Eurozone Europe hideously expensive for a US visitor, to the point that it is deterring US visitors.

As from a property perspective, with the collapse in US house values, you can buy a mansion in the US for the cost of a tiny apartment in France!

If it was not for the very tight US visa restrictions, you would have a lot more Europeans moving to the USA, as the cost of living is much lower your side of the pond and Europe is becoming a socio-economic basket case!

[Alan Zoff]

It's no wonder I feel at home here.

x

Napoleon [:)]

[debbie]

You are quite right about the mansion here vs an apartment in France. Unfortunately, we'd like to retire to France so I must simply hope things will turn around for us. In the meantime, perhaps I should get out of banking and go into selling real estate here.

[Braco]

Hi Debbie

The Big Mac index is a very simplistic tool that is meant for fun rather than for serious analysis. The reason that the Big Mac was chosen is that it is identical in all markets where it is sold.

Which part of France do you have your eye on?

 

[debbie]

Hi Braco: We currently own a leaseback in the Lanquedoc but would like to sell it so that we can purchase a village home or separate house near a village. But we'd like to remain in the Languedoc, near the Med if possible.

[Braco]

Hi Debbie

Our place is in Pezenas. Currently we visit about six times a year but hope that when/if the economy improves to spend at least half the year there.

[Sprogster]

debbie, French leaseback properties can be difficult to sell. Peter de R, who lives in the Languedoc has an interesting article about this on his website.

Do you have an EU passport? Otherwise, don't forget your visits to France are restricted to 90 days and if you want to retire to France you will need to obtain a long stay visa, which are getting more difficult to obtain for non EU retirees. This prohibits you from employment and you require comprehensive private medical insurance which can be difficult to obtain outside the US if you have any type of health condition.

Brits who have contributed to the UK social security system can retire to France at State pensionable age, as the Uk has an agreement to pay the French for Brit retirees health care. No similar agreement exists between France and the US and the USA do not offer EU citizens the ability to retire to the US, so you need to keep at the back of your mind that when you retire if you do not have an EU passport, you might not be able to live full time in France because of increasing immigration restrictions.

[debbie]

I am envious as we like Pezenas very much. It is a lovely village and we had hoped to buy there; you are not far from us as we are near Beziers so at least we can visit Pezenas on a day trip. It's fantastic that you can visit your French home frequently. Perhaps if the USD ever turns around then we could visit more often as well.

[debbie]

Thank you very much for this information. It will likely be around 10 years before we can afford to quit our jobs in the US and retire to France so we can hope some of the restrictions will have changed by then and it will not be so difficult for us.

[Sprogster]

debbie, in the forty years I have been visiting the USA, visa restrictions have got progressively tougher. All visitors to the USA are now fingerprinted and photographed on arrival and even tourists visiting the USA from the so called visa waiver countries, have to now apply online for pre travel authorisation and pay a fee, every two years. Not surprisingly the European authorities are not exactly thrilled by what they perceive is an over reaction by the USA and therefore you can expect visa requirements to be tightened further against US visitors, as these things tend to be reciprocal.

All said and done, your main consideration should be health care, as in the USA when you retire you will have the benefit of Medicare and under the new health legislation introduced in the US, your private health insurance company cannot drop you if you develop a chronic health condition. In France having not contributed to the social security system there or in another EU State, you will not qualify for health care and will be dependent on private health insurance, which in Europe can be difficult to retain if you become chronically ill, or as you get older the premiums become prohibitively expensive.

I don't want to come over unduly negative, but most countries are not keen to attract retirees, unless they are either wealthy, or there is a reciprocal agreement with their home country to cover the burden of health care.

On the positive side, there is nothing stopping you using your holiday home in France and as a non EU visitor I think you can spend up to six months a year in the country. (Two ninety day visits in twelve months.) Thereby, possibly having the best of both worlds. Meanwhile, lobby your government to introduce a non immigrant retiree visa and health care arrangement with the EU countries on a reciprocal basis!

[debbie]

We understand and are familiar with the process and also appreciate your details, thank you. Without going into too much that may not be of interest to others on the forum, we will not be able to retire in France if we can not afford to do so. We expect to have enough income from Social Security (hopefully) and our other retirement plan benefits we have paid into to be able to live in France and support ourselves, and if not, we may have to sell our place there and remain in the U.S.. But, again, 10 years is a long ways away and many things could change.