mint Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 François FILLON that is; what a surprise!Do you think he will be a good opponent against Le Pen?From the Hotel Matignon to the Elysée Palace? Is it likely? Has it been done before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idun Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Well his star has been rising for the last few weeks. Welsh wife too.How well could he do against Le Pen and maybe Macron..... who on earth knows these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormanH Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 He hasn't won thecandidacy yet as there is a second round, although it looks verypossible.His economic programme would be an easy targetfor LePen whose own is much more to the taste of 'the people'. Unpopular measuresthat he proposes that she will exploit the opposition to:augmenter la TVA de2 points supprimer l'ISF100 milliardsd'euros d'économies dans la sphère publiqueIl faudra que lesfonctionnaires reviennent aux 39 heures20 % des économiesproviendront des collectivités locales.les administrationsde sécurité sociale devront porter la moitié des économies, soit50 milliards d'eurosLe passage de l'âgede la retraite à 65 ans rapportera 20 milliards sur 5 ansla carte hospitalière sera réformée, ce qui économisera20 milliardsles allocationschômage seront plafonnées et dégressiveshttps://www.fillon2017.fr/participez/On the other hand the FN proposes a much more 'socialist' economic programme. Neverfor get that a certain party in Germany gained power by exactlythe combination of Socialism and nationalism that the FN proposes.That is where the name National Socialism came from.Toomany people forget that FN is a long way to the left of Fillon oneconomic matters, and so it appeal to all those seen out on the streets in support of their jobs- the same people who were traditionally drawn to Unions and the CP.This is where LePen will attack Fillon if he is candidate.My objection to him comes from hisCatholic fundamentalist social attitudes.The former French prime minister François Fillon, a socially conservative, free-market reformer who admires Margaret Thatcher and voted against same-sex marriage, has topped the first round of the primary race to choose the right’s candidate for the presidency next spring.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/20/nicolas-sarkozy-defeated-primary-french-rightwing-presidential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 Oh, Norman, you are right! On that programme, they won't vote for him........it will be like turkeys voting for Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alittlebitfrench Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 A little known fact, Fillon's wife is British !!!and.... she does not live in the Dordogne. So she must be integrated as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 Oh, THAT, yes, I believe she is related to my OH[;-)] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 NOT that there's anything remotely scientific about it, but I looked at a le Figaro poll this morning asking if people were satisfied with the results of the first primary of the centre right and it was oui 80% and non 20%Must surely point to Fillon being the successful nominee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormanH Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Yes among the voters for the Primaires. He has a good chance of being elected as the candidate.But as I said the problem will come if he comes up against LePen in the second round of the actual Présidentielles...His economic programme means he is seen as a 'French Thatcher', and if he is up against Le Pen in the final round she is likely to get the votes of many of the people who would previously voted for the left, in a repetition of the pro-Brexit and Pro-Trump voting pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alittlebitfrench Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I have made my mind up, I am voting for Macron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thibault Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 [quote user="NormanH"]Yes among the voters for the Primaires. He has a good chance of being elected as the candidate.But as I said the problem will come if he comes up against LePen in the second round of the actual Présidentielles...His economic programme means he is seen as a 'French Thatcher', and if he is up against Le Pen in the final round she is likely to get the votes of many of the people who would previously That accounts for the British media saying that FN supporters didn't want Sarkozy because his policies were close to FN policies and people would be more likely to vote for him and not Le Pen in the second round. Therefore they voted to ensure another candidate won.voted for the left, in a repetition of the pro-Brexit and Pro-Trump voting pattern.[/quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thibault Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Sorry for the muddle in my post above, but I can't edit it to make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolybanana Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Though he may be old fashioned in some social areas and close to the Catholic Right, Fillon presses a lot of other positive buttons, particularly in wanting to reduce the French State and try to reduce taxes.Not sure whether many LePen supporters voted for him to get rid of Sarkozy as his star has been rising quietly for quite a time. He does not have a criminal record or court hearings hanging over him, which is a breath of fresh air in French politics, though he does come from the same grande ecole stable as most of the top politicians.If he does beat Juppe next weekend then he will have to harden up to beat LePen, though the Left seem far too disunited to come together behind any single candidate.Even Hollande seems to be thinking of running now. I wonder if he will take his hairdresser with him on campaign or whether the party will have to pay the 10000 euros a month he costs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormanH Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 It's not so much a question of whether his programme is right (sic) for France or not. It is more a question of whether the voters will accept his 'austerity' when LePen is offering something else (even though I don't think she can pay for it:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormanH Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 It's not so much a question of whether his programme is right (sic) for France or not. It is more a question of whether the voters will accept his 'austerity' when LePen is offering something else (even though I don't think she can pay for it:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolybanana Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Got the shakes, Norman?Well, many LePen supporters are the squeezed lower half of the income range who may not have decent employment. Fillon has to appeal to them, quite right.Of course, the Brexit type, xenophobis racists will always vote for LePen whatever happens.By the way, Norman, what is the French equivalent of White Van Man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idun Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 NB I feel I shall have to find a word for remainers, that is equally as insulting and disturbing as being constantly accused of racism and being stupid. My hate and loathing for the EU has been for many years, seeing it's actions, it's wasting money and the federalism it has started without consultation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alittlebitfrench Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Idun...As my dad used to say, 'Ignore them, they are not of our class'.It is Ok for some members to yap on about French politics so far as what they have read in the paper but it is completely irrelevant what they say if you they understand the social economics of day to day France. Got a feeling Idun does.To be fair most French politicians have not got a clue about France either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chancer Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 [quote user="woolybanana"] Of course, the Brexit type, xenophobis racists will always vote for LePen whatever happens. By the way, Norman, what is the French equivalent of White Van Man?[/quote] That comment is not worthy of you, its is that of a sore loser who does not accept democracy, what good does repeated insults like the above do? Take out the first two italicised words and I dont have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindal1000 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 [quote user="idun"]NB I feel I shall have to find a word for remainers, that is equally as insulting and disturbing as being constantly accused of racism and being stupid. My hate and loathing for the EU has been for many years, seeing it's actions, it's wasting money and the federalism it has started without consultation. [/quote]Oh I've heard quite a few since the referendum..Remoaner, traitor, snowflake..to name three, although I rather like the third one.. oh and 'liberal elite' whatever that is supposed to mean, as that seems to be banded around as a form of insult. I think it's a shame that the EU referendum debate got hijacked by the right, some of whom did resort to racist propaganda, and have since tried to take that forward and hijack the subsequent debate into a 'hard brexit' discussion.This was carried on by Trump and it worked very well for him.. and now the hope is to carry it on for MLP. I think a lot can happen between now and the election so who knows. I do think that the latest events have confirmed that opinion polls are completely unreliable now. They seem to be asking the wrong people the wrong questions. That could go either way for MLP. The polls are all saying she will make it to the second round. They could be wrong on that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormanH Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Is it really impossible to discuss French politics without having to drag in Brexit?It is slightly relevant in that there may be something of a similar disaffected group of voters in France but the name calling between remainers and brexiters is rather boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alittlebitfrench Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 The problem with polls today Lindal is that no one will admit openly to what they actually think or how they will vote. People want change. In that respect France has two choices, Macron or MLP. Someone from centre left could vote for MLP or someone from the right could vote Macron.People what change, their individual political orientation has today become irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolybanana Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 You are right, of course, all of you, I should stop the name calling, but I happened to be on a rare UK visit at the time of the vote and was struck by the racist, xenophobic sentiments expressed by people, even amongst well educated members of my family. Having been brought up on South Africa, I was perhaps more struck than some by what was underlying such sentiments as 'they take our jobs', and to be honest I was shocked.There was NO intellectual and rationale debate about leaving the EU, just nonsense, which was shameful.And, of course, LePen voters would be voting for a party which is anti-foreigner and pro Frexit, in theory at any rate. They express it rather doifferently when asked: 'It is not you we want to get rid of but the others'. Work it out for yourselves.Chancer, the democratic process allowed both Hitler and Trump to get into power, though whether the former had a majority of the popular vote or not, I am not sure. Certainly Trump didnt.Democracy as we have it does not always give the 'right result', only an approximation of something like it which can be contadictory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gluestick Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Seems Juppé's chances are weakened, as the Muslim Brotherhood have been ordering (in Mosques) their members to join!Romain Caillet, who writes for French newspaper Libération has uncovered this.Interesting exchanges here:Apparently, Juppé is known in Bordeaux, as Ali.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 [quote user="alittlebitfrench"]Idun...As my dad used to say, 'Ignore them, they are not of our class'.[/quote]CLASS? Do people really still use words like that in these times of equality?[:P]My word, I don't believe that I have had occasion to use "class" since I gave up my French CLASS 2 years ago and have not found a suitable one since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 For those interested, the debate between Fillon and Juppé is at 21.00 hrs tomorrow.Don't really like these TV debates but I shall look in, just to get the "feel" of how they handle themselves, how they sound and if they appear to be suitably "presidential".............[:D]Shallow, moi? Well, I never claimed to be profound or indeed to know much about these things, OK?[:P] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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