Exchange rate

[krusty]

Ernie the way interest rates on savings are going in the UK  , I think a lot of others will be joining you.

good luck

[mint]

[quote user="ErnieY"]We do still have the comfort blanket of my UK salary to fall back on if it goes the wrong way, does that make it a hedge fund I wonder [blink]

Wish us luck [:)]

[/quote]

Sorry, Erns, I fear that the only hedge funds worth having is if you are into topiary in a big way!

[AnOther]

UK interest rates alone are not a good enough reason to pin ones colours to the Euro.

Rates of 5%+ can still be got, for instance Nationwide are offering 5.1% for 6 month bond (and what does that tell you ?), though there is potential for better rates when darling Darling finds nobody is willing to lend him the money he needs without the promise of better returns for the risk.

By holding and investing in Sterling you are gambling that the net interest you receive will outweigh further possible losses on the exchange rate offset by the net interest your money could earn in Euros, my bet is it won't.

Of course a lot depends on where your money is and where you need it to be.

My concern for the UK economy and Sterling is based on the fact that, after the USA, it has both the biggest trade deficit in the world and a balance of payments deficit rivaled only by Spain and anyone who seriously believes that this is going to turn around in the next couple of years is delusional, as is anyone who thinks that temporarily knocking 2.5% off VAT will encourage people to spend. Contrary to darling Darlings claim that by doing so he's injected 20bn into the economy all he's done is landed businesses with the thankless and expensive task of implementing the cut (and reversing it when it reverts back to whatever) and created the potential for consumer spending which is simply not going to materialise as people are scared and battening down for the long run.

[IMG]http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p123/biskitboyo/DefecitChart.gif[/IMG]

[Scooby]

[quote user="ErnieY"]anyone who seriously believes that this is going to turn around in the next couple of years is delusional, as is anyone who thinks that temporarily knocking 2.5% off VAT will encourage people to spend. Contrary to darling Darlings claim that by doing so he's injected 20bn into the economy all he's done is landed businesses with the thankless and expensive task of implementing the cut (and reversing it when it reverts back to whatever) and created the potential for consumer spending which is simply not going to materialise as people are scared and battening down for the long run.

[/quote]

I was at a meeting attended by senior finance professionals of 90+ of the biggest companies / inbounds in the UK and that was the general consensus.  In a straw poll on the economic outlook, not a single representative expected to see a turnaround in the next twelve months to two years - and no-one thought the measures in the PBR would change anything.

[AnOther]

Nice to know I'm not completely out on a limb then [blink]

[Quillan]

Be careful what you say chaps and certainly don't tell the truth else your get arrested and they Britain isn't a police state.

Anyway, nice to see I was wrong with 1.16 and although it dropped from 1.21 its still in the 1.19's which has to make it a bit better for some.

I am sure I saw mentioned on the news that there is talk that the VAT rate will not simply return to 17.5 but actually go up to 18.0 or even 18.5%. Talk about buy now pay later, I think AD is working on hope and not hard facts. I would like to think the UK will climb out of this mess quickly but I just can't see it somehow, I agree its going to be a good couple of years. I think its such a shame that New Labour inherited such a good economy, money in the bank and they have managed to spunk the lot since day one. All we seem to see from AD and GB when tackled by political and economic commentators about 'Boom and Bust' is it's not their fault, I have yet to see any of them put their hand up and say "Look guys, very sorry but we got it wrong", if they did perhaps I might give them a bit of respect. What they are doing now is simply political to get another turn in office without any thought about who is going to pick up the bill although I am pleased to see some of the general public are starting to work it out.

[powerdesal]

[quote user="ErnieY"]I've been watching BB and I, or rather we that is, have come to a decision that, for better or worse, we're going to transfer a major chunk of our liquid money over immediately and dump it into our recently opened CA Livret A accounts on which they are promising 5% net from Jan 09.

I
Wish us luck [:)]

[/quote]

 

Ernie, Anglo Irish are offering 6.35% on a 90 day notice account, or 5.8% on a Euro fixed interest account.

nb just noticed its for UK residents.

[Martin963]

I'm right with Ernie here as well. I am in TOTAL DESPAIR as to what's happened in the last week, I didn't think I would see another Dennis Healey borrowing catastrophe in my lifetime.

The totally unscientific straw-poll that I conducted in Okehampton amongst the people I met whilst in there last week at least convinces me that the British public know that borrowing this much money is - at best - breath-takingly risky. A lot of people here in Devon think we've pretty much been sold into slavery - AGAIN - as in 1976.

Poor poor Britain.

And yes, even at €1.17/£ I've moved a bit more money over yesterday, because I fear that exchange controls may well be on the cards soon.....(whether they're permitted under EU law or no)

[AnOther]

I wonder what the bookies odds are on UK going cap in hand to the IMF again [:'(]

I see the rate currently stands @ 1.21 and I'm hoping it holds until Monday, or better still improves, which is the earliest I can place a deal. Still going to do it though, I've been seduced by the promise of a false dawn once too often.

[Martin963]

Actually Ernie I've discovered that I'm not the only one that now thinks that IMF intervention is to be welcomed, as it will finally bring home to Messrs Brown and Darling the magnitude of the catastrophe they have heaped on our heads. Once the IMF intervened in 1976 the Callaghan government was forced to come to its senses, and forced to implement policies to bring inflation down and get their borrowing back under control.

I think the current lot still don't believe that they are in any way to blame for the scale of the problems we now face. I realise that the inflation risk at the moment is low, but in a couple of years time when they've had a chance to print truckloads of money....?

That's why I'm in - as I say - total despair.

[AnOther]

[quote user="Martinwatkins"]I think the current lot still don't believe that they are in any way to blame for the scale of the problems we now face[/quote]Ain't that the truth [:@]

And amongst it all that prize pillock GB has the unmitigated gall and lack of sensitivity to grin and laugh whilst his puppet Darling was being comprehensively ripped to shreds at the dispatch box by George Osborne, a man who's standing was, IMO, significantly elevated by his performance in response to the PBS.

[Martin963]

I think ErnieY that - as always - (and on matters technical as well) we are in harmonious accord.

[AnOther]

d'accord [;-)]

[Gastines]

Unfortunately when I see the posturing of G.Brown and the give-aways coming from the Government,the red carpet treatment still rolled out for all and sundry,I think they must believe that the UK still has an Empire to pay for it all. The cost cutting in Government Departments always seems to start at the bottom instead of at the gold-plated top.Never mind,I expect lessons will be learnt.

Regards.

[mint]

[quote user="ErnieY"]I've been watching BB and I, or rather we that is, have come to a decision that, for better or worse, we're going to transfer a major chunk of our liquid money over immediately and dump it into our recently opened CA Livret A accounts on which they are promising 5% net from Jan 09.

I'm afraid we have a somewhat less optimistic view of what the next couple of years hold for the value of Sterling than darling Darling but only time will tell if we've made the right choice.

We do still have the comfort blanket of my UK salary to fall back on if it goes the wrong way, does that make it a hedge fund I wonder [blink]

Wish us luck [:)]

[/quote]

Erns, I think you can only have €15000 in a Livret A (not even sure if that's singly or per couple).  No doubt you or someone else will soon post and tell me!

[Clair]

Livret A : Caractéristiques

• Minimum de versement : 1,50 € (Caisse d’épargne), 15 € à la Banque Postale,
• Versement mensuel : 0 €uros (versement libre),
• Plafond des dépôts : 15 300 € (hors capitalisation des intérêts),
• Taux de rémunération : 4.00 % NETS (à partir du 1er août, 3,50% depuis le 1er février 2008, 3.00% sur janvier 2008)
• Fiscalité : Net d’impôts.

The interest rate is regulated and determined by the Banque de France on 15th Jan and 15th July.

One Livret A per person.

CODEVI / LDD : en détails

• Plafond du CODEVI : 6 000 €uros (hors capitalisation des intérêts),
• Dépôt minimal sur un CODEVI : 15 €uros,
• Versement minimum par mois : 0 €uros (versements libres),
• Taux de rémunération CODEVI : 4.00% depuis le 01/08/2008 (3.50% depuis le 1er février, 3.00% sur janvier 2008),
• Fiscalité du CODEVI : Net d’impôts (non fiscalisé),

The interest rate is regulated and determined by the Banque de France on 15th Jan and 15th July.

One LDD per person.

[OldyamYams]

[quote user="Martinwatkins"]Actually Ernie I've discovered that I'm not the only one that now thinks that IMF intervention is to be welcomed, as it will finally bring home to Messrs Brown and Darling the magnitude of the catastrophe they have heaped on our heads. Once the IMF intervened in 1976 the Callaghan government was forced to come to its senses, and forced to implement policies to bring inflation down and get their borrowing back under control.

I think the current lot still don't believe that they are in any way to blame for the scale of the problems we now face. I realise that the inflation risk at the moment is low, but in a couple of years time when they've had a chance to print truckloads of money....?

That's why I'm in - as I say - total despair.[/quote]

Here! Here!  What is it they all shout in the Commons when some one has gaffed?

RESIGN, RESIGN

Dave

[mint]

Clair, thank you.  You are the fount of all information, as usual.

Erns, I hope you're reading or are going to read this.

[AnOther]

I was up to speed on the numbers but thanks anyway [;-)]

[Russethouse]

I subscribe to a web site that updates the curent price of property in a given location, recently I had an email to say that they had aquired pre 2000 records.

We bought this house for £46,000 in 1985, by 1999 it had reached £76,000, currently the asking price is between £250,000 - £300,000 (there are 13 different types of home in this development but basically all 1930's three  bedroom semi's )

Who was it said 'no more boom and bust' ?[:@][:@][:@]

[AnOther]

Anybody got a real time £-€ rate site which is working today ?

My favourite, HiFx, has been frozen on 1.2014 since about 20:00 yesterday and others I have checked seem similarly moribund, e.g. Forex isn't even showing a line on the chart and the numbers say that the rate has been static all day which cannot I don't believe..

Date:11/29/08 17:40 O=1.208 H=1.208 L=1.208 C=1.208

[krusty]

I thought they all shut down for the weekend ? , here is the yahoo one showing 1.21

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/currency-converter/convert?amt=1&from=GBP&to=EUR

[Jonzjob]

1.2122 on the Broken Biscuit  Company (BBC) today...

[AnOther]

Don't know about shut down krusty, in neutral perhaps because time differences mean that worldwide markets are not in complete sync, nevertheless though HiFx has always continued to track through the weekends and record slight movements. Currently however it is frozen @ 21:58 on the 28th. on 1.2103

Similarly the Yahoo one became moribund @ 22:36 on the 28th. on 1.2120

Let's see what happens on the morrow and hope it's more a [:D] than a [:(]

[AnOther]

I see that the HiFx chart has coughed back into life - unfortunately it's a [:'(]