Cameron veto: are we now truly marginalised?

[Alan Zoff]

Sorry RH. Of course you are.

I was reading your post as if made wearing your Mod's hat. Silly me.

[Russethouse]

PPP - My view is that if Cameron had gone along with what was on offer he would have faced serious and justifyable calls for a referendum, and whatever your feelings, the outcome would most likely be that the UK left the EU altogether.

 For the moment this all seems very cosy, but if, and its a big if , the Euro survives how long will it be before the French baulk at having to get their financial budgets approved by Eurocrats, especially when the biggest player is Germany ? How long will the German or French tax payer want to go on effectively subsidising PIGS ? There seems to be an awful lot of door slamming when the horse is two furlongs away.

As for the Brits and the coalition, we had better hope it holds together because unless he is hiding his light under a very big bushel Ed Milliband just does not appear to have leadership qualities (there are mutterings here of his own party wanting to get someone else established in time for the next election) and frankly neither does Balls, and while Cooper is somewhat better, she tends to just look spikey......

 

[pachapapa]

Quote: They also blamed the EU for letting Greece join in the first place...

And if freshly minted Sarko Mk I had had his way there would have been a whole raft of arab mediterreanean states added to the greek "dross" in the euro melting pot.

But now the world has changed and we are in an era of Sarko Mk II, the born again "christian", crusading for fiscal propriety.

Sarko the germanophile executioner, freshly minted.

The metaphoric norman long-boats are preparing to sail to hastings and march on the square mile. 

[mint]

[quote user="pachapapa"]

Quote: They also blamed the EU for letting Greece join in the first place...

And if freshly minted Sarko Mk I had had his way there would have been a whole raft of arab mediterreanean states added to the greek "dross" in the euro melting pot.

But now the world has changed and we are in an era of Sarko Mk II, the born again "christian", crusading for fiscal propriety.

Sarko the germanophile executioner, freshly minted.

The metaphoric norman long-boats are preparing to sail to hastings and march on the square mile. 

[/quote]

Oh, Pach, I don't think boats can march?[:D]

[just john]

[quote user="pachapapa"]

What really matters is what the average bog standard german thinks, the rest of europe will muddle along assuming that the situation stabilises. The words treachery and sabotage are being voiced in germany, rightly or wrongly the germans consider that they have already largely contributed to preventing the eurozone and implicitly the european union from financial collapse. If german leadership succeeds in correcting the listing ship in time of storm the treachery of cameron will be remembered; if german leadership fails to save the bacon the treachery of cameron will NEVER be forgotten. Perhaps a stark reality for you, your leader and your casino banking system.

Maybe "marginalised" is just a tad euphemistic.

[/quote]

Anyone with any sense can see that there has been a lot of treachery in the EU, not least the French profligacy, and there is german treachery come to that, but the least it seems to me is that of the UK, who has given a timely wake-up call to those not in la la land; whilst the common market has always made sense, the rest of it is just a flawed fallacy based on poor political posturing. I have still not read an external financial summary that believes the euro will survive it's indebtedness as it is. What bets now on the euro staying intact ?

[Russethouse]

 I was just talking to friend about the EU situation who said they'd heard on a political program that the Germans are printing Deutchmarks, did anyone else hear this ?

[Bugsy]

http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-dollar/2011/11/27/germany-printing-deutsche-marks-british-foreign-office-warns-of-euro-chaos/

[Russethouse]

Thanks.....

[nomoss]

[quote user="Russethouse"]

PPP - My view is that if Cameron had gone along with what was on offer he would have faced serious and justifyable calls for a referendum, and whatever your feelings, the outcome would most likely be that the UK left the EU altogether.[/quote]

I believe any possible referendum would have simply been whether or not to sign a new treaty, not about leaving the EU.

Edit: but now he is likely to have calls from his own party for a referendum on leaving.

[quote user="Russethouse"] 

As for the Brits and the coalition, we had better hope it holds together because unless he is hiding his light under a very big bushel Ed Milliband just does not appear to have leadership qualities (there are mutterings here of his own party wanting to get someone else established in time for the next election) and frankly neither does Balls, and while Cooper is somewhat better, she tends to just look spikey......[/quote]

I suppose at least one can say that Cooper has Balls [:D]

[nomoss]

[quote user="Russethouse"] I was just talking to friend about the EU situation who said they'd heard on a political program that the Germans are printing Deutchmarks, did anyone else hear this ?[/quote]

Second post here, yesterday

http://www.completefrance.com/cs/forums/2648471/ShowPost.aspx

[Russethouse]

Must learn to click all the links [:)]

 I suspect that the answer to signing the treaty would have been 'no'

 

[just john]

Of course somethings are black and white, but something tells me there are 256 shades of grey, I suspect there is more to play out in this and DC is not completely bereft of sense, the markets have yet to show a take but at the very least they are aware that the UK is not in agreement and will be showing the market view next week, til then . . .

[nomoss]

[quote user="Russethouse"]

.......  I suspect that the answer to signing the treaty would have been 'no'

[/quote]

Very possibly, but he would have delayed having to respond to the proposed treaty change, been able to say he was vetoing simply because of the wishes of the people, made less enemies, and denied the possibility to other leaders of casting him as the villain to deflect anger from themselves. Not that they would, of course [:)]

[Thibault]

I fail to see why David Cameron (or any other British PM from any party) should be accused of "treachery" because he (or she) exercised a given right to have a veto. 

It seems to me that the meeting last Friday was well and truly telegraphed in advance.  The EU Heads of Government knew what the UK's position would be regarding the financial sector - Cameron had made no bones about it in advance.  The Franco-German position was equally "solid".  So.....why should the EU HoG be surprised at Cameron's actions?  Perhaps it's because no other British PM had ever vetoed anything before and perhaps they thought he would make a lot of noise then give in.

 

[Quillan]

[quote user="Russethouse"] I was just talking to friend about the EU situation who said they'd heard on a political program that the Germans are printing Deutchmarks, did anyone else hear this ?[/quote]

This 'rumor' goes back months. There was another thread on this about 8 months or so back but we as moderators had to pull it for other reasons. I can't remember but I think it reared its head in something like the DM.

[Alan Zoff]

I'd be more worried if I had heard that the UK was printing a lot more £

[just john]

Boris does have a lovely turn of phrase[:D]

 .telegraph. /borisjohnson We're-right-about-the-euro-thats-why-Europe-is-angry

[powerdesal]

I have read much about the Euro problems and the latest Cameron response.

His response was not strictly a veto but rather a refusal to go along with the Merkozy plan. As the UK is not in the Eurozone there is no real reason for Britain to agree to be involved in any Euro support plan.

As I understand the current situation, The UK is a net contributor to the EU funds, by quite a bit. I have no idea if France is also a net contributor although I have read (somewhere) that it is not. I suspect that the UK is being castigated for not agreeing because Merkozy are more interested in getting more of the UK money ( Tobin Tax).

I believe in the concept of a European Common Market, in fact I voted for that concept. I have mixed feelings about the concept of a common currency - I don't really see how it can continue to work without severely compromising the sovereignty of each individual country. The disparity of cultural and economic mores across the 27 member countries means each country needs the ability to control the International value of its currency, depending on the prevailing conditions inside each country. One size definitely does not fit all circumstances.

In terms of Democracy, any democratically elected Govt is, by definition supposed to act as the People want it to, whether the elected representatives personally agree with those wants or not. If they virulently disagree then they should, as individual representatives, stand down. Hence, as the UK press indicate that a majority of the UK electorate want a referendum on continuing membership of the EU Club , then such referendum should be set up.

The UK electorate may be wrong, they may be right, but either way they have a democratic right to make their wishes felt and equally a right to expect the elected govt to act on their wishes. Anything less is IMO a dictatorship.

[powerdesal]

Admittedly this is from the Daily Mail :-

''Senior Europeans are calling for Britain to be driven out of the EU following David Cameron’s decision to wield his veto.

Others say it is time for the eurozone countries to get their own back on the UK by implementing regulations which will cripple the City of London.''

In times past, this sort of desire to cripple part of another sovereign state would be a considered a war like threat. I hope we as a civilisation have moved away from that.

[breizh]

Couple of points.

If the new Euro-Plus fiscal union adopts its planned restrictions on taxation and spending, you could easily imagine a future election in which one party's manifesto, stimulus policies and tax-cuts, is run through a think-tank's calculators and discovered to be euro-incompatible. Meanwhile a rival party's plan fits the criteria handed down from Brussels. At which point, it will surely be argued, it is pointless to vote for the first party, because the fiscal union will stop them from doing what they promise. The EU has totally removed the democratic element from future elections with regard to tax and spend policy.

I don’t loke that.

 

The UK PM wanted protection from EU regulation of London-based financial institutions that do not trade with the rest of Europe. Due to the financial world being English speaking, London is the global centre for most banks, even if they don’t trade in Europe, or even the UK. The EU would have taken global.control of insurence, forex, money markets, etc. It would have control, and dictate policy to the world.

I don’t like that

 

What the UK PM was actually asking for was was in part democratically legitimate sensible. Does the EU have the right to select which party wins an election in say Sweden? Does the EU have the right to dictate to say, a Chinese bank, that trades solely in China, but has to have a UK presence for strategic investment reasons?

I think he should have asked for specific exemptions, maybe. But he overplayed his hand when asking for unanimity voting. Effectively giving any country a veto in the future.

Over the weekend the German/Spanish/French press have been quite hostile to what Merkozy have done. Most of the participants in the deal do not seem 100% willing. It should be interesting to see what happens in say the Netherlands, over the next few weeks.

 

What will actually appear in the end, nobody has a clue. They have not talked about specifics. As always it will be a camel, or horse designed by a committee.

Meanwhile away from the front pages the ECB completely switched on the printing presses by throwing money at the EZ banks, and lowering the asset security levels required. EZ debt problem hoisted 1 generation down the line. Was this a deal?

 

Seems the money markets weren’t overly impressed. Borrowing for EZ is still dead.

[Quillan]

[quote user="powerdesal"]As I understand the current situation, The UK is a net contributor to the EU funds, by quite a bit. I have no idea if France is also a net contributor although I have read (somewhere) that it is not.[/quote]

I Found these three bit's on the net (searching for net contributions) although not exactly up to date. The first one has us coming in fourth after Germany, France and Italy.

http://www.eu-oplysningen.dk/euo_en/spsv/all/79/

This one is a bit more up to date which puts us as again in fourth position under Germany, France and Italy.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/content/20080605FCS31027/5/html/What-about-the-Net-Contributors%E2%80%9D

This one, a bit more up to date (Jan 2011) has us coming in fifth.

http://www.martinwestlake.eu/the-eu-budget-who-are-the-net-contributors/

I theory I guess we should take the EU figures as being the more correct but then we all have our suspicions about them.

Change the 'net' to 'gross' and nothing comes up other than what is in English newspapers.

[just john]

Euro slides as summit deal fades 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d2607b4-2472-11e1-a4b7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1gJlwtj2g

[Quillan]

[quote user="breizh"]

If the new Euro-Plus fiscal union adopts its planned restrictions on taxation and spending, you could easily imagine a future election in which one party's manifesto, stimulus policies and tax-cuts, is run through a think-tank's calculators and discovered to be euro-incompatible. Meanwhile a rival party's plan fits the criteria handed down from Brussels. At which point, it will surely be argued, it is pointless to vote for the first party, because the fiscal union will stop them from doing what they promise. The EU has totally removed the democratic element from future elections with regard to tax and spend policy. [/quote]

 

That is a very good point and one I had not given much thought to. That really does effect the sovereignty of individual states. I wonder how many others, and in particular countries, have worked that one out yet.

[breizh]

Rest assured countries with big nationalist parties like the Netherlands, Finland will have noticed.

There is also the question of regional elections in countries like Spain. Will the rules apply to the Generalitat in Catalunya? Gawd help the EU if they even think about messing with nationalist of that ilk.

[breizh]

Would appear the Vikings are likely to be in the Saxon corner

http://www.thelocal.se/37764/20111206/