X-change rate edging upwards!

[mint]

The exchange rate has been getting slightly more favourable for sterling in the last few days.  So, rate going to be improving or getting worse for sterling?

I know, I know, your guess is as good as mine is as good as the man in the moon's.  Just kind of thinking aloud and would like the thoughts of others more knowledgeable than me.

The hearsay (not to say expectation) is that the BOE's next move on interest rates is going to be up if anything?

[cooperlola]

The problems with the Lisbon agreement cannot be helping the Euro either, surely?

[Pierre ZFP]

But with inflation in UK set to rise to 3 or 4% or more that must make the pound weaker (I hope)

[JMB]

I have been actively trading forex for about a year and one thing that I'm fairly certain about is that your guess is about as good as mine.

However, in spite of this, let me put in my tuppence worth.  Sterling has been viewed as a solid currency, but the general mood now (as far as I can tell) is that it is destined to slide downwards in the coming years.  The dollar may rally a bit from its current position and the euro will probably continue to rise.

The shorter term indicators also sow that the euro will probably go up relative to the pound (in other words it will cost more pounds to buy your euros).

So should you rush in and buy euros now?  Maybe yes, maybe no.  I take the view that whatever time I choose, I will kick myself because there will be a better exchange rate just around the corner!

Some (not many, but some) traders argue that Sterling has had its day (is overvalued) and may drop considerably.  They say they can't see why GBP is so strong and that its strength is based on historical factors, rather than what is happening now - ie in the cold light of day, the pound ain't what it used to be and when a market correction takes place it will slump. 

Regarding the euro, people (bankers) are poo-pooing the idea that the euro will overtake the dollar as the world's major currency.  I find this a bit worrying, as there is a lot of smoke and mirrors and double-speak going on, so talk of the euro not overtaking the dollar may be a sure precursor to the opposite happening. 

I am trying to get my money out of pounds and into euros - although this is more of a reflection of where I shall live than an exchange rate decision. 

[AnOther]

Don't want to bicker with you sweets ([:)]) but where do you get the notion that the £ is creeping up I wonder.

[IMG]http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p123/biskitboyo/euro-v-pound.jpg[/IMG]

[quote user="John Martin BRADLEY"] I take the view that whatever time I choose, I will kick myself because there will be a better exchange rate just around the corner![/quote]

There are always 2 best times to buy John, yesterday and tomorrow [;-)]

 

[JMB]

I think it will be one to one in a couple of weeks time.

 

[JMB]

JMB I did a bit of a double take there, I thought  I didn't say that!  - JMB

Quite right ErnieY.

[Nearly Retired (I am now)]

sweet 17 - don't be bullied - you're right!

I have been looking every day for the past 2 weeks and reckon that you can get maybe 1 to 1.5 more euro cents to your pound than say this time last week. 4X are offering about 1.25+ today.

[AnOther]

Who's bullying [:-))]

Fair enough, up until about 9am yesterday there had been a minor rally, but still not reaching where it had been earlier in the month, and then, in the space of the next 3 hours, it plummeted about 1.3c.

Good luck if you can manage to catch it on the peak but an upward trend it definately is not [:(]

 

[JMB]

It is my impression that short term time frames don't mean anything when you are looking to move your money across from the UK to the continent.  Brokers will  buy at the best  level of the day and sell to you at the worst point of the day.  That's how they make their money.  No matter what happens you will get well and truly screwed.