pachapapa Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 For those more astute followers of eurozone finance who are normally ahead of the class.[:)]A rather more erudite analysis in the Financial Times of "mutti's" broken tryst.http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/23/759801/the-bund-that-broke-the-bundesbank/?updatedcontent=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quillan Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Problem with comments like you find in these articles is that they are aimed to alarm. Try looking at historical exchange rates for the Euro/Dollar. The dollar has gained a little ground but still is no where near the level it was at the end of 2010 i.e. 1.44 or 2008 when it was in the 1.57's. It's all relative and also depends on what reference point these so called 'experts' are using. To me things have got to get a lot worse for the Euro or more accuratly a lot better for the dollar before you need to start panicing but then thats no fun I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Thanksgiving for your opinion.Watch the bear with the sweet tooth for triple "A's".[IMG]http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7019/6389267495_c4796601ec_b.jpg[/IMG] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 If you can tear yourself away from the turkey preparation for a moment, stephanie of the beeb includes in her blog the FT Alphaville premise that the lack of bund take-up was a dastardly teutonic ploy.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15868210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breizh Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 [quote user="Quillan"]Problem with comments like you find in these articles is that they are aimed to alarm. Try looking at historical exchange rates for the Euro/Dollar. The dollar has gained a little ground but still is no where near the level it was at the end of 2010 i.e. 1.44 or 2008 when it was in the 1.57's. It's all relative and also depends on what reference point these so called 'experts' are using. To me things have got to get a lot worse for the Euro or more accuratly a lot better for the dollar before you need to start panicing but then thats no fun I guess.[/quote]It's a long time since forex rates were connected to economic reality! They are so easy to manipulate.Try the bond markets. http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Markets/Government-Bond-SpreadsYou will note the EZ(inc DE) members all have higher yields than the non-EZ countries (SE/CH/DN, and good ole bankrupt Britain). So we have the Med countries borrowing costs at unsustainable rates. We have FR and BE close to the borderline.This is THE crisis. The EZ have bought it on themselves. What was an irritation is now a full blown crisis. EZ banks cannot get funds from bonds or interbank, they are down to liquidity swaps, borrowing good assets from insurers, etc (note the collapse in the AXA/Allianz share prices) which are then accepted by ECB as collaterol. A German take on the crisishttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,799397,00.htmlWhere this will lead is anyone's guess, but a lot of very clever people have started to bet on a possible collapse of EUR. Personally, I don't see it. Business in Europe will effectively cease to function, with the mass unemployment that will bring. Let's hope the political will is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breizh Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 And the Economisthttp://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/11/euro-crisis-16I would not disagree with the final paragraph. The politicians (Merkel) created this crisis, by insisting private lenders took a hit on Greek debt. The lenders then realised their investments in EZ were not bulletproof, and stopped lending. Doh! Is she a complete numpty?They can still (hopefully) fix the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Zoff Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Not being an economist, I don't suppose the solution is as simple as a bunch of US Marines kidnapping the Chinaman who is owed all the money, taking him up to 25,000 feet and threatening to chuck him out if he won't cancel the debt? (This might not be a technically watertight suggestion, not least because I have been having another clear-out of the drinks cabinet, prior to restocking.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Definitely clearing out the drinks cabinet should be done more frequently.[:)] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breizh Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 All the UK pension funds? 5 times the firepower of the Chinese cashpooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 At-ali also cleared out the drinks cabinet last night;[:)]http://www.20minutes.fr/economie/830370-jacques-attali-une-chance-deux-euro-existe-plus-noel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Zoff Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 The traders will still only give you 1.16 of the things for a pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 The rumoured quick deal creating a mini group of eurozone countries based on Germany & France plus some viable others eligible for a credible stability pact may be aired publicly in die Welt am Sonntag today. This could all be cut and dried for the december EU summit.Le Monde has been running the story from saturday evening.http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2011/11/26/zone-euro-vers-un-pacte-de-stabilite-limite-a-certains-pays_1609786_3234.html#ens_id=1268560If plausible in market terms a sharp rebound in the value of the euro would occur on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 The rumoured quick deal creating a mini group of eurozone countries based on Germany & France plus some viable others eligible for a credible stability pact may be aired publicly in die Welt am Sonntag today. This could all be cut and dried for the december EU summit.Le Monde has been running the story from saturday evening.http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2011/11/26/zone-euro-vers-un-pacte-de-stabilite-limite-a-certains-pays_1609786_3234.html#ens_id=1268560If plausible in market terms a sharp rebound in the value of the euro would occur on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolybanana Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 France would be the weak link, surely? It is just a ploy for Sarko to get French debt paid by the Germans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 [:P]Further to the rumours in Le Monde yesterday evening, as anticipated Die Welt this morning gives further information on the secret negotiations between "mutti" and the "dwarf". The steps to implement the agreement for an inner eurozone club of crucial players would appear to be well in hand and final agreement should be feasible in conjunction with the forthcoming summit in december.http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article13737213/Merkel-und-Sarkozy-gruenden-Klub-der-Super-Europaeer.htmlAlso from last night:some complementary information included touching on the "modus operandi" of the negotiations.http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article13736526/Geheimverhandlungen-ueber-neuen-Euro-Vertrag.htmlP.S. PPP thinks this will fly!Advice of Q and SS awaited.In english:http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/27/us-eurozone-integration-ecb-idUSTRE7AQ00F20111127http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/27/uk-eurozone-integration-ecb-idUKTRE7AQ00J20111127 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 [quote user="woolybanana"]France would be the weak link, surely? It is just a ploy for Sarko to get French debt paid by the Germans![/quote]Die können reden und machen was sie wollen. Der Euro ist nicht mehr zu Retten. Alle wissen das nur unsere Regierung nicht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blondie Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 "Will the euro crash in 2011?"I think it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salty Sam Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 [quote user="pachapapa"][:P]Further to the rumours in Le Monde yesterday evening, as anticipated Die Welt this morning gives further information on the secret negotiations between "mutti" and the "dwarf".[/quote]Not very secret then, were they? [quote user="pachapapa"]Advice of Q and SS awaited.[/quote]Usual rate for advice is £100 per hour, but for you I'll make an exception. Invest in land.[;-)] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMB Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I bet the respective governments of the Eurozone have been printing Francs, Deutschmarks, Lira and so on for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frederick Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 uters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are planning more drastic means - including a quick new Stability Pact - to fight the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, Welt am Sonntag reported on Sunday.The Sunday newspaper reported in an advance before publication that if necessary Germany and France were ready to join a number of countries in agreeing to tough budget discipline.The report, which echoed a Reuters report on Friday from Brussels, quoted German government sources as saying that the crisis fighting plan could possibly be announced by Merkel and Sarkozy in the coming week.Is it not because none of them have tried to stick to budget discipline since the Euro was set up. That they face this mess now ? So who in their right mind is going to believe they are capable of turning over a new leaf and sticking to agreements now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 [quote user="Frederick"]uters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are planning more drastic means - including a quick new Stability Pact - to fight the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, Welt am Sonntag reported on Sunday. The Sunday newspaper reported in an advance before publication that if necessary Germany and France were ready to join a number of countries in agreeing to tough budget discipline. The report, which echoed a Reuters report on Friday from Brussels, quoted German government sources as saying that the crisis fighting plan could possibly be announced by Merkel and Sarkozy in the coming week. Is it not because none of them have tried to stick to budget discipline since the Euro was set up. That they face this mess now ? So who in their right mind is going to believe they are capable of turning over a new leaf and sticking to agreements now ?[/quote]Reports in the german press this afternoon tend to discount the secret almost complete mini agreement rumour.Rather that "mutti" and the "dwarf" are endeavouring to give everyone a kick in the "butt" to get Treaty Change up and running before the december 8/9th "gipfel".http://de.reuters.com/article/topNews/idDEBEE7AQ05A20111127 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachapapa Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Well the USD/EUR has changed maybe 30 pips or so during the day. So looks like just a rumour without real substance.Check link below, if it doesn't display then you need Java.http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htmSunday evening take on the approaching eurogeddon.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8918763/Markets-pricing-in-endgame-for-the-euro-warns-UBS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
just john Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Better an End with horror, than a Horror without end, who doesn't think it's inevitable, stock up with rice and battten down the hatches . . .Icap tests systems for eurozone collapse .ft.com No doubt the subtext is 'another bad debt bailout is better than failure before preparations for two tier euro is formed . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krusty Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 [quote user="HEZ"]"Will the euro crash in 2011?"I think it might. [/quote]We are near the end of November now only December to get past , so I think it will make it through 2011 .......but 2012 , who knows ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breizh Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 3 Key dates.Jan 9. France has to borrow EUR 29billionJan 30. Italy has to borrow EUR 32billionFeb 28. Italy has to borrow EUR 46billionVery scary, considering what happened last week when Germany failed to get EUR 6billion!!I doubt the Dwarf will sleep well over Noel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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