Bird flu

[SaligoBay]

Are you worried?  Is your town worried?

Sérignan, on the Mediterranen coast near Béziers, population 7000, has bought 14000 face masks just in case.   Can't find the article right now, it was a few days ago, so you'll just have to believe me. 

 

[Val_2]

I think we should all be very frightened. I am thinking of getting us all flu jabbed shortly as recommended yesterday on the radio to reduce any flu a little bit less. Learning that this strain is almost identical to the pandemic of 1918 was a worry in itself although we know they had no medicines back then,it can still take the elderly,young and handicapped easily. Face masks though, that is scaremongering a bit too soon I would have thought. There are so many poultry breeders up here in Brittany it would decimate the stock and break families who depend on them for their existance.

[Fantine<br><br><br><br>Susie]

Yes, I am worried. I think is inevitable that it will reach France and England and living in a rural area with thousands of ducks, chickens and geese, it cold be right on my doorstep. Keeping chickens is something that I have casually thought of doing in the past three years, but this amongst other reasons has definitely put me off.

Did you read last week that scientists in the States have recreated the strain that killed millions worldwide in 1918 in an effort to understand the new Bird Flu strain? Can you imagine if it were to be accidentally leaked or that got into the hands of terrorists? The World seems to have been hit by disaster after natural disaster this past year or so.

[Alexis]

No, not worried.  I'm not the type to fret and fume before something actually does happen.  No point in panicking over something which may not happen.

There are stocks of the grippe injection in France but not enough for the population.  Masks are sold out in the pharmacies.  Mairies have stock piled masks - it was on a programme the other day - but you don't wear the same mask every day so those stocks will soon be exhausted. 

[Patf]

The flu epidemic of 1918 - don't forget that this was at the end of WW1 when most people in the West were physically at a low ebb and more likely to go down with flu.and die from it. A bit like the typhoid epidemic at the end of WW2. We have poultry and are just hoping for the best. Pat.

[Fantine<br><br><br><br>Susie]

[quote]No, not worried. I'm not the type to fret and fume before something actually does happen. No point in panicking over something which may not happen. There are stocks of the grippe injection in Fran...[/quote]

Not fretting, nor fuming or panicking but don't you remember the chaos, culling and countryside retrictions just a few years ago with the mad cow disease in the UK not to mention all the knock on effects to other areas such as economy.

[Viv]

It also seems quite ironic that battery chickens will be at less risk of coming into contact with contaminated migratory birds than free range fowl.

[Ron Avery]

Great UK  media hype story this "Millions of jabs are needed for sick children".............. Ahhhhhhh

What TOSH, a GovT health official has said that they do not know if the bird flu found in Turkey will even mutate into a strain that will affect humans, it is all might or could.

Also there is no vaccine available for it.    Rubbish you say there are millions of doses being stock piled as we speak.  NO As it has not yet mutated and may never do so,  until there is a virus there cannot be a vaccine for it., The millions of injections that they are stockpiling are for bird flu, so your budgie and chickens will be OK.............  Not you

Oh and 1 in 5 adults in Kansas good old US of A, (EDIT That should be 1 in 6 and it was IOWA not Kansas) admitted in a survey that they had had sex with a chicken so is Bird Flu now an STD????

 

[Alexis]

No Fantine because I was in France.  There were no restrictions where I live.

 

Ron, as far as I can understand, the vaccine has been "made" from the virus in Asia.  The birds in Turkey and Romania have this virus so it should protect.  They showed on the telly the slaughter of the poultry in Romania but just a certain distance from the cases discovered and I can't tell you what the radius was.

I agree about the vaccine for ordinary flu though.  They make a vaccine from the previous years illness which might bear no relation whatsoever to the current years.  They must be a logic in there somewhere.

Tell me more about the USA 

[Viv]

QUOTE Oh and 1 in 5 adults in Kansas, good old US of A,  admitted in a survey that they had had sex with a chicken so is Bird Flu now an STD????

No but it could give birth to a few more 'which came first... ' style jokes 

[Alcazar]

Doubtless, if it does come, it'll be dealt with in the same calm, unruffled way that Foot and Mouth was in the UK.........NOT

Alcazar

[Dick Smith]

Part of me sees this as hype - the TV today was quoting 60 dead in 'Asia' (a big area) from Avian Flu, which although tragic is not a pandemic. Previous outbreaks have killed numbers of people, but aren't in the Spanish Lady category. So we have a potential problem, and precautions are appropriate but panic isn't.

Mind you, I am in a 'priority category' for flu jabs, and when I phoned my doctor this morning the earliest they could do me is December 5th, so where's the urgency there?

BTW - the 1918 outbreak was unusual in that it killed heavily amongst the young and fit, not just the very young and elderly.

[The Riff-Raff Element]

We keep a selection of free range poultry for eggs and meat. I can't say that I am overly worried at the moment - as long as this ramains as an avian virus, the probability of transmission is small, particularly if routine biosecurity is kept up. Mostly this is to stop your beasts catching disease from one another, but it keeps illness away from humans too. It's very good news that the 1918 virus has been sequenced - this gives the best prospect for a vaccine BEFORE the H5N1 strain mutates rather than waiting for it to kill a couple of million...

[Patf]

Those one in five Kansas adults - are you sure it didn't say "chicks" and not "chickens"? Pat.

[Ron Avery]

Hot news, bird flu has been found in Turkey........... in DEAD meat, they don't even know that it is from a Turkish bird. It was also confirmed by he BBC environmental correspondent that the vaccine is for birds, there is no human vaccine for bird flu because BIRD flu only affects BIRDS

Even Jeremy Vine thought it was a media hyped story to sell papers

[Ron Avery]

[quote]Those one in five Kansas adults - are you sure it didn't say "chicks" and not "chickens"? Pat.[/quote]

I would hope for the chicken's sake they were hens!!

Survey was reported on that excellent BBC 2 and 4 programme QI

 

[Deimos]

Re: the drugs. My understanding is that the drugs concerned are not vaccinations but rather treatment. The particular drug (cannot remember its name) is only made by Roche, who hold the patents on it. Their share price has increased quite well since the “scare” started.

The drug has been shown to be effective against the current strain of the bird flu virus (going around birds). However, the virus will need to mutate or change to be able to infect humans and this may increase or decrease the drug’s effectiveness.

Roche are making as much as they can but cannot manufacture enough to meet anything like the current world demand. Despite that and despite other countries being able to manufacture a generic form, Roche will not release the patents and the World Health Organisation will not give permission for other countries to manufacture generic forms. Looks like once again money takes priority over people. Maybe the “good” side to the situation is that Roche will make tons on money.

It seems that the most effective was to limit and human form is to react to human infection a.s.a.p. It seems that the longer the human form is around the better it can cope with the drug and thus the less effective the drug will be at stopping the infections spreading. Cynic that I am, I cannot see a country that is not infected giving up its limited supply to a country that has infection (even though that would be the most sensible thing to do). Fortunately the WHO have also ordered a load which they will keep to despatch to a country that has infection.

Ian

[Eskenazi]

I am worried about 'normal' flu as well, especially as our GP centre has just told me that of the four of us, only our daughter is eligible for the vaccine this year! Does anyone know if it's possible to get the vaccine in France, simply by making an appointment & paying for it?

From the reading I have been doing from US sources, it might be advisable to stock up on Tamiflu as well. Does anyone know if this is available in pharmacies in France?

[Iceni]

"Part of me sees this as hype - the TV today was quoting 60 dead in 'Asia' (a big area) from Avian Flu"

I think that I have problems with putting risk in perspective. 60 dead only equals approx 3 days worth of road kill in France, 1 incident in Chechnya etc etc.  IF bird flu gets a grip where it really matters, in W Europe, it MIGHT cause big probs for us - but it might not.  FWIW I feel more at risk from lunatic French drivers or very, very low flying Mirages but I admit to having a non existent attention span when watching the news on "serious subjects".

Confused of 46

not

[Hegs]

The "treatment" is Tamiflu which is a generic anti-viral - it is not restricted to any one sort of flu virus. It can be taken in early stages of a virus to reduce symptoms, or at half-dose to prevent/reduce risk of infection. More info here: http://www.fda.gov/cder/consumerinfo/druginfo/tamiflu.htm

The "vaccine" for humans will not exist until about six months after the avian flu has jumped to the human species. It is expected that, like other flus, the virus will be extremely virulent at first but mutate to become less dangerous but spread easier (as quicker death in patient -> less chance of spreading).

[Dick Smith]

This 'inability' to properly report risk is endemic in modern TV and newspapers. Look at the effect that the constant banging on about paedophiles has had on, for example, parents refusing to let their children walk/cycle/bus to school - with the eventual effect that there is likely to be a net gain of premature deaths due to poor exercise regimes. Yet, we are told, offences against children have not materially increased in the last generation.

Of course, to put the deaths so far in context they would have to be expressed as 60 excess deaths over however many people died anyway in that region over that period of time. Then the degree to which death was accelerated would also have to be described - for example how many were already moribund. Just too complicated for bimbo-news, I'm afraid.

[Iceni]

The Chinese dealt with their bird flu epidemic by giving the birds the drugs designed for humans. This means that 2 of the 4 drugs that could have been effective are now not. The human form of this flu does not exist and when it does there is a good chance that no drugs or vaccine will work. It seems to kill the young and does not follow the forms that normal flu does. Stockpiling the current anti-flu drugs on the market will mean that there will be less for people like doctors and nurses who would be the people who need the dosage first.

France has one of highest levels of anti-flu stockpiles but then a French company has been making it for some time. There are about 80 steps in the process to make the real flu vaccine and it takes years so if it does hit - drugs will not be the answer as they simply do not know what the vaccine will need to be designed to do.

I have decided to live my life as if this does not exist. Each day could be my last. I have lived longer than my mother, I am here because of modern medicine and refuse to ruin my day to day life worrying about something that may not happen.

I am going to stockpile loads of bottled water - this is because our rivers and wells are dry and tap water (from high wells) tastes like crap. We and our neighbours are also talking about putting in individual deep boreholes - but any way of being independent could be very important if the worst happens. Having seen what has happened in the USA and Pakistan when disaster hits makes me want to be more and more independent.

Keep an eye on the future but please live in the now.

[Val_2]

Scaremongering? - have a look at www.thesun.co.uk

Its enough to make you wet yourself worrying.

[Dick Smith]

I saw a BBC 24 news report this morning in which they used the term 'nightmare scenario' about five times. Very calming. And why, given the pressure on the BBC's budget. did they have a live report from outside a closed government office and another from outside a chicken farm, when both reporters were just reiterating what had already been said in the studio?

[Viv]

I can remember the AIDS frenzy in the early 1980s and the subsequent public information ads that were shown several times a day. Whilst it is a horrible disease, and not as easily transmitted as flu, it didn't take off in the UK in the way that was being predicted at the time.

More recently, there was an outbreak of a 'flesh eating' bug ( can't remember the name was something like Ebola?) which having reached a UK hospital, the media took great delight in informing us all that this disease was resistant to drugs, disinfectant etc but again it petered out to nothing.

I think Bird Flu is an obvious concern but one that needs to be kept in proportion at the moment.