how's the year so far?

[mascamps.com]

We were nicely on target for March, April and May but have only about a third of the expected bookings for June. We've got bookings for about 2/3rds of our July target at the moment and something similar for August so I guess those two months won't be too bad as the bulk of our reservations are made about two weeks ahead.

On the other hand, we've friends who've got virtually nothing all summer.

So, oldtimers, is it looking good, bad or indifferent?

 

Arnold

 

[Teamedup]

mascamps, what is ourinns. It looks like it could be a fetish site and I haven't risked opening it.

[mascamps.com]

Nah, nothing so profitable as that I'm afraid. Just a list of B&Bs/inns/hotels in France launched on the back of one of the threads here three or four months ago.

 

Arnold

 

[Miki]

[quote]We were nicely on target for March, April and May but have only about a third of the expected bookings for June. We've got bookings for about 2/3rds of our July target at the moment and something simi...[/quote]

You have one big problem Arnold.

You have nothing to base your targets on, I am serious. You cannot just grab a figure out of the air and say that is what I want to get for whatever month. Well you can but what you get may well be different. We all know we should (or hope to) do well for May, July, August and September but setting targets for every month and every year would simply drive me nuts !!

June is notoriously a strange month in the tourist trade, it comes off the back of a BIG month. May has 3 or 4 "bank" holidays and many French aim to use one or two of them for a "getaway". It is then followed by July, another big month, which means school holidays are up and running, many French will wait until after fete national before getting away but that still will leave many getting away for July and demand can well be strong in early July.

Experience of the market in your area is the best way to judge months by, asking me say, about here in northern Brittany may well not relate to you in the south. You are saying some hotels near you know have no business, this weekend here for the hotels and B&B's we know, it is very difficult to find a room. Two different areas two different stories. The badly run places may be struggling of course and that is probably the general situation all over France. I am offered or see on a regular basis, old 2 star hotels at knock down prices, even an old imperial type hotel near one of the lovely old towns with 20 plus bedrooms and large dining room, in a town not too far from Dinard came up last year at a knock down price of 375,000 euros, it needed work but a "buzzing" hotel like that with the right management would do exceptionally well but with the wrong management.......

Step back Arnold and accept that providing you are able to survive and live well, you are doing alright ! Isn't that what you came here for ?

[Frogslegs]

Unfortunately the b/b is very quiet due to very few house hunters. Our fourth year and the least bookings, but both gites are booked from mid june to mid september except one week.

bonne chance

[mascamps.com]

"Target" isn't really the right word. What I've done is make monthly projections based on the replies I received a few months back re my question on the split of occupancy across the year. When I compare these with reality, they've been within a couple of percent for every month except for June when the projection was for about triple the actual figure (unless I get a coachload next week, of course).

It's June that has me confused. I've seen that some people have been quite full whereas others have been relatively empty. I know that there's a big effect from the long weekends in May but my projections as per above bring out May and June as being almost identical occupancy (presumably with a more even spread during the week in June).

Might be interested in one of those hotels some of these days at those prices. Out of curiosity, was it French management running it? I don't know if my own experience locally is typical but certainly around here they are dreadful at marketing.

Step back Arnold and accept that providing you are able to survive and live well, you are doing alright ! Isn't that what you came here for ?

That's true, but it's always nice to know how you're doing in relative terms. Last year we thought we were doing OK but not brilliantly over the summer but in comparison to the locals we were doing extremely well. We're not quite at the "nicely settled in" point here yet; give us a couple more years and we'll be totally laid back

 

Arnold

 

[S8J]

Are you doing better than last year?  That's how I judge the year, and so far so good.  Although for us here in Pas de Calais May was a bad month especially with the demise of Pentecost as a bank hol.

good luck anyway

 

j

 

[Miki]

Are you sure they didn't take it off anyway around your area ?

We still had our place full for Pentecôte with people, who simply said "stuff the government, we are not working" !!

Good point about doing better than the previous year, it is the only real way of judging how you are doing. Providing of course you are doing sufficiently well enough to want to continue !

[Ian Hoare<br>All the best<br>Ian<br>La Souvigne Corrèze<br>http:www.souvigne.com]

Hi,

I think Miki's right in saying that targets are essentially meaningless. I know you say that you were surprised to see how similar figures quoted were from different areas, but I don't think that enables you to have any kind of realistic target or even vague expectation.

Anyway, to answer your question. Relative to the trends in recent years, which is really the only sensible way of judging how we're doing.

January excellent Feb - poor, Mar spot on average, April down a bit, May well up (surprising considering no long w/e these last two years). June - Magnificent (near 100% except for 3 days at the beginning) July bookings very moderate, Aug bookings poor.

However, several of our colleagues - serious and good - have reported catastrophic spring figures and we have noticed that despite being pretty full ourselves, we've not been passing on anything like the number of enquiries we've had in recent years. It's also true to say that our results, having run this business for 10 years, as members of Gites de France, advertising in Sawday and being included in the Guide Routard, will be wildly different from those achieved by someone in their second year, aiming almost exclusively at Brit visitors, by having English language only advertising, present only in English language web sites and guides and so on.

We have found every year has been different. I think that there is a complex inter-relationship between the events/weather in the previous year or two, the amount of advertising carried out by the Department, the weather in competing areas, and so on. You can be pleased/disappointed at your performance vis-a-vis your colleagues nearby, that IS meaningful, but if no one is travelling to your area, then no one is travelling to your area and you can't really blame yourself for that. I'd not be surprised for example, if the rows between Blair & Chirac reduce the number of Brits visiting France next year. It might even reduce the number of French we get here (as Brits ourselves). Of course such speculations are pretty pointless as we have no control over the events and have no way of knowing whether our ideas are right or not.

[mascamps.com]

Certainly in relative terms as compared to last year, we've done very well. Thus far April is about triple the previous year, May nearly 10 times and June triple. July bookings are about twice last years arrivals already and August bookings are matching last August. Of course you'd expect quite a jump in the second year. What I was wondering on this thread was if this is a "normal" year in which case I could take these figures as a basis for estimating what things might be like next year (presumably we'll have another (smaller) jump in occupancy then too).

We have noticed that July is a bit patchy. Yes, we've about double last years figures but the occupancy is mainly made of up several very large bookings and to date there are a considerably number of days that have very low occupancy. August is looking a bit more evenly spread for us at the moment although it's quite early to judge as we normally get most bookings just two weeks ahead.

It's interesting that you've noticed the wide spread in performance too Ian. Interesting too re the reduction in passing on by yourself which equates to a theoretical drop in occupancy from your "usual" 130% or whatever down to "just" 100% say.

Do you know if the people with disasterous figures are mainly aiming at any particular market segment (eg brits)? We did notice ourselves that although there are two UK bank holidays in May, we didn't really get that many in the second of those and even the other one was mainly Spaniards for us (the other two were mainly French). It looks like the French locally decided to make a point of taking off the Pentecost holiday this year.

One thing that is starting to affect our arrivals is the pricing structure of FlyBE. It appears that the vast majority of people coming on it have their own house to go to or are going to friends/family and therefore are able to book well in advance and get the cheap tickets. Even trying to book now for September the flight prices are coming out at 400€ return which is well outside tourist prices.

 

Arnold

 

[Coco]

I'd not be surprised for example, if the rows between Blair & Chirac reduce the number of Brits visiting France next year. It might even reduce the number of French we get here (as Brits ourselves).

Do you really think so Ian?  We had some Americans here last week and in conversation I commented on the fact that in 2000 (when our house was let as a gite) we had several US bookings.  Then  2001 and 2002 (following 9/11) we had none.  Likewise 2003 and 2004 as a B&B the only Americans we had lived in Germany.  This year so far they have almost been our bread and butter (we'd be pretty hundry if we were relying solely on the Brit market).  However, these people said that they thought initially it was due to 9/11 but in latter years they put it down to the American fear of how they will be received in France following the invasion of Irak.  I related this to some French friends on Saturday night who threw their arms up in horrow and disbelief and basically said, what a load of rubbish - government to government, president to president there may be a problem but the people of the country just don't think like that, and personally, I think they're right.  I think that even though Tony was FOR the war there were more Brits against it, and although CHIRAC kept out I know of a lot of French who think they should have gone in with the Brits and Americans.

As far as having targets goes, I know that in one respect they can be regarded as pointless but when you are starting out it's a good way of monitoring whether you are improving year on year (obviously allowing for glitches caused by weather, bank holiday dates etc) and for me it gives me an indication of whether we are going to survive without dipping into savings etc and whether I need to start offering special deals, do some extra advertising etc.

As far as I was concerned with targets I had a nil expectation for Jan and Feb and the first half of March.  However, we had a steady stream of visitors from the beginning of February onwards and by the end of April I was optimistic of a year that would far outstrip last year.  May was pretty good, but considering there were so many bank holidays, not quite as good as it could have been.  June at first appeared as though it was going to be dire, at the beginning of the month I only had something like ten nights booked, but I have had enough bookings at three or four days notice to make it OK.  Not as good as last year, but OK.  July I now have as many advance bookings as I had people through the door last year (as long as no one cancels!) and August I am only 5 nights behind last year's takings and as Arnold says, many bookings (especially the French ones) come within 14 days of arrival.

What I am stunned about is September.  In our first season we had mostly French visitors, and as one would expect with the French, come 1st September, after bumper August, the business just DIED!  Last year we had 14 nights booked in September.  This year so far I have 14 nights booked, I've had an enquiry this morning for a further 7 nights (which thank heaven don't clash with the others) and two separate lots of visitors who have been here for one night in May have said they will DEFINITELY come back in September or October for 3 or 4 night break to betterdiscover the area.  Of course, we'll have to wait and see just how definite DEFINITE is, but I'm quietly confident.  Just goes to prove what we were saying on an earlier thread about not refusing one-nighters, if your place is nice enough, in a good enough location, people passing through can then be tempted back for a longer stay!  And we've already got relatives, who are insisting on paying (albeit with a pretty good discount!!!) who want the whole week for the October half-term if we don't get someone (paying full price) wanting it!

Last year we then had quite a few Aussies "doing Europe" during their summer holiday who kept us quite busy during the latter half of November and December, so it would be really good to see a similar pattern emerge this year.

[Quillan]

The thing I am picking up and was a general complaint at our GDF meeting in Carcassonne was that tourism is very down this year and that many people are dropping prices or giving a extra night free to get trade.

The biggest problem it was felt was France it's self, it's just to expensive. I can confirm this from our visitors who all have complained how expensive it is here. The only country more expensive than France is the UK so people 'up north' should be better off having Brits (because you are nearer to the UK) come to stay.

We on one hand don't seem to have a problem. I think it's quality that counts.

[Coco]

Quite true about expense Chris.  I'm sure that holiday-makers put a lot more bearing on cost rather than political posturing.  But being "up north" isn't such a huge benefit because we have limited air services and of course we still have the western channel exhorbitant ferry prices.  But we are benefitting from the Americans "doing" Paris who find it so expensive that they are more than happy to make the two and a half hour drive into the country to get just as good accommodation for almost half the price. Both lots that we have had stay this week have said that had they not already paid deposits on Paris hotels they would rather spend an extra day or two here than go back into Paris.  Especially in the heat!  And of course, from the American perspective we do have the not to be missed Omaha and Utah beaches!  No one ever leaves enough time to do them justice.  Still, at least they do say they will have to come back to do the "in-depth" WWII visit

[mascamps.com]

We've quite a lot more Americans this year too.

The only problem we have with the French is that they consistently reckon that we're too dear but we've friends who originally ran with prices about 30% below ours and even then the French still thought they were too dear.

We've the photojournalism festival at the end of August/start of September which looks like it will fill us up this year.

Incidently on the Americans, Australians and all non-Europeans, you might want to point out http://www.eurodrive.renault.com/ which lets them get incredibly cheap car rental. I think a few of the other car manufacturers run similar schemes. Downside is that they need to get from the airport to a Renault dealership to pick up their "hire" car which is sometimes a bit complicated.

 

Arnold