EXCHANGE RATE WHEN

[woody234]

I WANT TO TRANSFER POUND TO EURO TO CREDIT AGRICOLE BANK, WHEN SHOULD I DO IT TO GET BEST PRICE, IE IS ANYTHING GOING TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECB TO MAKE THE POUND STRONGER, OR AM I JUST DREAMING,AND IS CURRENCIESDIRECT THE BEST ONE

[LEO]

[quote user="woody234"]I WANT TO TRANSFER POUND TO EURO TO CREDIT AGRICOLE BANK, WHEN SHOULD I DO IT TO GET BEST PRICE, IE IS ANYTHING GOING TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECB TO MAKE THE POUND STRONGER, OR AM I JUST DREAMING,AND IS CURRENCIESDIRECT THE BEST ONE[/quote]

Last July!

[Jacqui Too]

I think you might be dreaming[:-))]

I bought 9500€ on 29th Feb and paid £7251 at a rate of 1.31, if I bought them today they would have cost £7630, £379 more in only 1 month.

I think bite the bullet and buy now[:)]

[chirpy]

If you can hang on then watch the daily decreases/increases of euro rate and buy when it is better.

Naturally if you need the funds soon then there is nothing you can do about the rate you obtain.

No one has yet advised on companies to use and this would be a goodtime for other forum members to advise as we are all in this mess together.

p.s. if you live here  and have a garden now is the time to start growing your own veg. to help your budget.

[:)]

[dexter]

Off to Barcelona tomorrow at short notice, exchange rate at my local post office was 1.20 !!

[seb47]

It depends very much how much and how urgent it is. When we bought our house in France we took a forward contract to purchase Euros (through our UK bank) because that way we knew exactly what our commitment was as the exchange rate was fixed. Three months later we signed the Acte de Vente and it transpired we had saved about £4000 as the pound had deteriorated against the Euro. We were lucky. But even if things had gone the other way at least we knew what we had let ourselves in for and there was no nasty surprise. Talk to your UK bank and ask exactly what it would cost to buy Euros. There are other agencies that advertise in the popular French magazines. We have "lost" quite a bit of money because of the recent  exchange rate changes but it was not easy to foresee the effect of the "credit crunch/sub prime lending scandal" or the effect of the UK/US governments borrowing and we are now trying to balance our euro/sterling savings to minimise the effect of such fluctuations in future. However, nothing is guaranteed. We comfort ourselves in the knowledge that our sterling savings are more then keeping up with inflation and will still buy "roughly" the same in the UK as they did a year ago. Getting to the point (as mu OH would say), bite the bullett, get down to your bank and do the deed asap next week. Don't rely on what the ECB may or may not do. Even if they reduce interest rates it will not necessarily lead to an improvement in exchange rates from your point of view. Sometimes you have to speculate to accumulate and balance any  losses against the benefits of living your dream. Who can say what might happen in a few weeks time, never mind a few years ahead.

Pete

[mint]

Good advice indeed, Pete.  As you say, who can know what will happen in the future.  If you want something badly enough, then you do everything in your power to achieve it.  You win some and you lose some.  It's swings and roundabouts and .................so on. 

I guess that you'd do very well indeed if, at the end of a long and fruitful life, you find your gains and losses about balance out.

[AnOther]

There are always 2 "best" times, yesterday and tomorrow....................................

As long as the Bank of England interest rate is on a downward spiral as it is then the exchange rate can only get worse.

The only thing which could ease the pain would be a cut in the Euro zone interest rate and although there are calls for one IMO there's little prospect of any significant cuts in the near to mid term.

Bite the bullet and buy now is the only practical option.

PS. PLEASE DON'T SHOUT  [blink]

 

[mint]

Had a bit of a nice surprise when we got back from the UK a couple of weeks ago.  At long last, the notaire, after more than 18 months, has finalised our house purchase.  And guess what, he sent us back an unexpectedly large cheque!

Not only was that a welcome surprise, I worked out that the money "cost" us a great deal less to buy 18 months ago so that the face value of the cheque is now worth quite a bit more.  Am I explaining it OK?

Anyway, instead of inwardly cursing the notaire for his tardy ways, I am now say, good old chap! 

[LEO]

D'accord ,

Sweet Seventeen.

A good result!

[mint]

Thank you, dear Lion!

[AnOther]

sweet17:

With hindsight I'd have been much better off buying Euros than a NW Bond but then, like most things, you can only do what you think best at any given moment.

I don't particularly don't need the money just now but with the gloomy outlook for the £ my dilemma is do I leave it there until maturity and run the very real risk of more erosion or cash in now and buy Euros, decisions decisions [8-)]

Like I said, 2 best times, yesterday and tomorrow.............................[:)]

[allanb]

Buy when the price is low and sell when it's high, Ernie, that's what I always say.  Never fails.

[Quillan]

Think of the poor UK pensioners who have their money sent over every month, they have lost about 15.7% of their income in the last year, its no joke for them either.

I was looking at 'buy ahead' rates yesterday for up to April next year, they appear to be offering about 2 to 3 cents more (1.28 - 1.29) than the present so it would seem the 'money men' are not very optimistic.

Why should the Euros drop it's interest rates? It is not that the Euro has got strong it's the dollar and sterling that have become week. There are a lot of Euro loans out there in Spain, Italy and Portugal in particular, with French and German lenders. These loans are from banks that we use in France, why should we suffer because of the USA and UK have screwed their economies? I agree with Ernie, I can't see interest rates here dropping.

[Ron Avery]

Does that mean Amanda Lamb will only be telling wanabee gite owners that they will only earn 850€ a week from that converted pig sty/log store this year?[:P]

Joking aside, the dire exchange rate is not set to change for months according to the experts and whilst the US dollar remains low against the £  and €,  there are real comparitive bargains to be had from holidays in US $ accepting countries.  That will surely have a disastrous affect on an already saturated French gite and B&B  market. ,Maybe clients, like the last time the £ dropped against the FF like a stone, will be asked "can you pay my daughter's bank account in the UK in £ s" or was that just a tax dodge[6]. 

[AnOther]

[quote user="allanb"]Buy when the price is low and sell when it's high, Ernie, that's what I always say.  Never fails.
[/quote]Would that be yesterday or tomorrow then [:D]

[Quillan]

It is already having an effect. March was not as bad as I thought it would be (but is was not exactly the best) with Easter being early but April is pretty bad compared to the last 6 years. There are not so many UK and American bookings although those up north may do better what with the war vets etc who will come whatever. We are noticing an increase in domestic bookings (French) which is a help. We also get one nighters travelling down to Spain.

Lets be honest the big holiday companies who sell European holidays can't put their prices up so all inclusive deals in Euro-land will save you a fortune if that's where you want to go. The US has to be the place to go this year for English families, it's something we are certainly considering for the end of the year.

Another good indication is the price of flights with people like Ryanair in to Euro-land for July, August and September. I had a look at flights to our nearby airports for August and instead of the usual £200 they are going for just under £70. You don't normally get discounts on these flights whatever time you book them.

[The Riff-Raff Element]

[quote user="Ron Avery"]

Does that mean Amanda Lamb will only be telling wanabee gite owners that they will only earn 850€ a week from that converted pig sty/log store this year?[:P]

Joking aside, the dire exchange rate is not set to change for months according to the experts and whilst the US dollar remains low against the £  and €,  there are real comparitive bargains to be had from holidays in US $ accepting countries.  That will surely have a disastrous affect on an already saturated French gite and B&B  market. ,Maybe clients, like the last time the £ dropped against the FF like a stone, will be asked "can you pay my daughter's bank account in the UK in £ s" or was that just a tax dodge[6]. 

[/quote]

Ah, you make some very good points here. I think it is pretty clear that a lot of gite owners (particularly those with euro loans and sterling incomes) are hurting badly and there are going to be some going under this year. But, to be honest, I don't think it will discourage people from trying. Plenty of them move here believing that they don't need to be able to speak French, so why should financial realities deter them? [:P]

If exchange rates are genuinely in contango (ie, forward rates are higher than prompt) that suggests that the market thinks euro interest rates are going to fall relative to sterling. A financial type I know (and I don't necessarily understand what he says, but I am capable of repeating it [:)]) reckons that the BoE will be disinclined to drop rates too far because inflationary pressures in the UK are still strong and stoking consumer credit to boost the fortunes of the economy is no longer seen as a panacea. The ECB has more room to move for two reasons: firstly, manufacturers in the zone are discounting to stimulate local sales rather than having to export against an appaling exchange rate (just look at the car deals being offered, for example); second, most commodity imports are priced in in dollars and priced out in euros which has defended the zone to an extent from the ramp up in prices.

Anyone remember when the euro was going to plummet to parity with the dollar and disappear in a cloud of pink smoke? Were those the same experts? [Www]

[mint]

ErnieY, if, as you say, you don't need the money, why not leave it in the NW bond until maturity and then they are bound to offer you something in its place.  The rate may not be as good but at least you can leave that money in sterling until such times as it comes up a bit (maybe not back to a heady 1.48) but not as low as it is now.

If you cash in now, not only will it be worth fewer euros than before, you will also pay the penalty for cashing in early.

Fortunately, I only put in an amount that I will not need in the forseeable future so, for me, it's the waiting game.

More immediately of concern to me is that I was thinking of moving house (no, not back to Old Blighty, only further out into the countryside).  I will definitely not now be buying before selling because I am reluctant to change more pounds into euros at present.

On the plus side, 2 houses I was interested in are both "sous compromis" so, whatever is happening to exchange rates at the moment, the effect on the saleability of houses around here so far remains unaffected (apparently!)

Good Luck with whatever you decide.