Slowing Down?

[The Riff-Raff Element]

Apparently 43,000 homes were purchased in France by Britons in the past 12 months. This places France second only to Spain (58,000) as the country of choice for British homes abroad. I have to admit that the source of this information was the Daily Mail, and perhaps other people might have “views” about the likely veracity of this information, but I’ve chosen to take it at face value. I would also like to offer the defence that I did not buy the paper but was given it gratis on a plane a few days ago. It seems that there was a loo roll crisis of some kind.

 

I find this figure of interest for two reasons; firstly because it doesn’t really tally with my observations of the market in this area, and secondly because of the staggering amount of money involved.

 

A year ago here in the Vendée if you stood still for more than about 60 seconds someone tried to stick an “à vendre” sign on you. Pandemonium. Old ladies were being sold as bijou rural retreats against their will. A nicely located drainage ditch was rumoured to have changed hands for €40,000. Actually I made that last bit up, but only for the purpose of emphasis. In the last few months….well, we do still get a fair number of French relocating from the cities. (The Vendée has a stupidly low crime rate. The rest of the nation feels that we might be hard done by and are relocating wealthy Parisians here to ensure that there is something worth stealing in the neighbourhood.) But British buyers seem to have dried up, to the extent that there is a pile of rubble in the neighbouring village (which in dim light and if one were under the influence of some of the more dangerous recreational drugs could be said to have four walls and a roof) that I realised today has been on the market for a year. Properties like this used to fly of the shelf like, well, flying things. Canvassing views from local drunks this afternoon (  ) has led me to the alarming conclusion that British buyers have deserted the field of combat.

 

Now it could just be here. Bucolic is one word that comes to mind. Isolated, another. Lacking in mainstream entertainment certainly, but not without some unusual attractions. We had a cow drop dead in the street and people left their places of work to come and have a look. But it could just be here. So, has anyone else noticed a slowdown? If so, any theories as to why?

 

The other aspect that interests me is the money involved. Would an average price of €100,000 sound insane to anybody out there? If reasonable (and assuming that I’ve counted the zeros correctly) that would total €4.3 BILLION  of capital inflow, presumably mostly going into the hands of French residents. I’ve no idea what the GDP of France is but this must have a significant positive impact on their growth figures. Got to be 0.5% at least as a wild stab in the dark. So if this is drying up, does this mean that the days of wine and roses are about to end and France slides into recession?

 

Somewhere in this gibberish there are some serious questions – anyone got any answers?

 

 

[SaligoBay]

No answers, but loved the bit about the old ladies. 

[Mpprh]

Hi

That tallies with my local discussions.

It started by local agents saying that they just couldn't get enough desirable properties, but is now more along the lines of "the market is stable". You may well feel that this is doublespeak for "there are no buyers" ?

I've noticed that local agents seem to have more property for sale, and for longer, than 12 months ago.

Peter

[Patf]

Our local paper - Depeche du Midi - did a full page last week on the increase in house prices in the area. Especially around Toulouse. They never mentioned British people, only those from Paris and the Ile de France where house prices are much higher so the Parisians think nothing of paying the increased prices around here for a maison secondaire. There didn't seem to be a slowing down. The figures you quote for the British buying abroad were also reported in the Sunday Times last week. Pat.

[Coco]

All very interesting.  At the beginning of the year I was staggered to see that there was virtually nothing in this area (Central Manche) for less than 150,000€ and although even at those prices they were in a pretty poor state, they were still be snapped up.  Now you seem to be able to get a very nice property indeed for that sort of price.

I also asked a couple of local agents to value a friend's holiday home about 6 weeks ago.  They both valued it at considerably less than similar properties were going for only 2 or 3 months beforehand.  One of them also said that even at that price it would probably sit on the market for a long, long time.  He has since phoned back to say that he has several people who would all be very interested in the property and he is SURE he could sell it.  However, he still only wants to sell it at the low price he quoted.  So although the area still seems to be swarming in Brits wanting to buy properties, they don't appear to be willing to spend the same amounts that they were doing a year or so ago.

 

[Fleur]

I've not enough knowlege to comment I'm afraid.

Just had to say I enjoyed the old ladies too - in fact the whole opening post by whoever it was (sorry, can't see their name on this screen).

[JohnM]

[quote]I've not enough knowlege to comment I'm afraid. Just had to say I enjoyed the old ladies too - in fact the whole opening post by whoever it was (sorry, can't see their name on this screen).[/quote]

I agree, the writting style really brought a smile to my face on this dreary morning.

 

[Alexis]

Slowing down around me too, here in Morbihan according to the local immobilier.  Just when we had decided to sell too!  Not a lot of houses on the market and all very expensive - compared with a few years ago.

Not many renovation jobs around and the finished articles are going for high prices.

Apparently a 'better class of person' is buying.  Don't ask me!

Will just say that every house I know that has been for sale has been bought by the Anglais.

I liked the old ladies too ....

[Peterm]

Our impressions are similar to Coco's (though our area is Northern Manche) - namely that some of the steam seems to have gone out of the market (and about time too) though prices are holding steady. Still, we were very pleased to have found our new house for what we felt was a reasonable price.

 

PeterM (Peter & Sue)

[Dick Smith]

The GDP of France (2003) is $1.654 trillion, or €1.34 trillion. So I reckon the €4.3 billion - is that .3%?

[Blackadder<IMG src="http:forums.livingfrance.comimagesline.gif"><BR>Blackadder<BR>Keighley and Creuse]

I sincerely do hope it slows down and sits at inflation, i also hope it doesn't become swamped with English all in a few places.

We haven't bought to make money, (we didn't buy in England to make money, its our home and I fear for my two children when they come to buying in 10-15 years time!) and do not want the same feelings vented on us as happened in Wales years ago, yes i know it was isolated

[The Riff-Raff Element]

[quote]The GDP of France (2003) is $1.654 trillion, or €1.34 trillion. So I reckon the €4.3 billion - is that .3%?[/quote]

Coo...for once my wild guess was quite close, well within €2 Billion anyway. So given that France recorded growth of the order of 2% I guess I don't need to be hoarding food just yet. Could I ask where you got this terrific titbit of infomation? Thanks.

[Nathalie]

Hi

We're in the process of buying our house in 22, and before we found the one we wanted, we went to an agent's in Dinan - full of British buyers, so they certainly seemed to be doing a brisk trade.  We went to see two properties with them, and they were a lot of money for not much property. 

We then happened to look in an agent's window in a small market town, and arranged to see three properties.  The following day, two had sold in between time which left one - the one we're buying.  It had double the house and 8 times the land for 50,000 euros less than the first two we'd seen with the other agent. 

Prices have shot up in recent years, and bargains are harder to find, but actually I think it's just the mortgage rates going up that are putting people off buying second homes - and a work colleague, who is having a house built in France, can't sell her house here for love nor money, so it's slowing down here too which must have an impact along the line somewhere?

Nathalie

 

 

 

 

 

[Sprogster]

I believe there is increasing evidence of a slowdown, as in areas where French house prices are driven primarily by British buyers,it is inevitable that the current slowdown in the UK house market will have a knock on effect.

Add in the factors of increasing interest rates, higher French house prices and a stronger Euro and a slowdown is a certainty at some point.

In my area in south Var there is strong evidence that house prices have actually fallen back from a peak earlier this year, as a house in my domaine has come on the market for 10% less than similar houses were selling for in May.

The so called experts seem to be in two camps. The optimists see a flat market for 2 to 3 years, with the pessimists seeing a negative correction. No one appears to be predicting continued strong growth.

If I was a buyer I would hang on a few months to see what happens, as many properties in France are very optimistically priced, and under the predicted economic circumstances vendors might well have to become more realistic if they want to sell.

Don't forget the majority of foreign buyers in France have been second home owners and second homes tend to be the first things to go when belts need to be tightened.

[Hereford]

We think that a good proportion of property sales to the English now are re-sales from other English people. So.... the money comes into France on one hand and goes out again? Not sure anyway if property sales affect GDP. If a Frenchman sells to an "Anglais" is that an "export" !!!!

Do we have any economists who use this site?

Hereford