UK Housing Crash - Good thing or bad and will it happen - Discuss

[AnOther]

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[Geordie girl]

Come on james bond , get rid of the invisible ink

[Frederick]

Negative equity....couples handing their house keys back to the lender and going to live with their parents again  / splitting up .....it happened last time .....When I bought my house in Dorset I discovered the seller was a bank ......this was in 1991... the house had been built in 1989 ......it was sold by the builder for far more than I paid for it from the bank .so you could say that from the fall in house prices I was a winner.. but it does not make me happy knowing sombody had to go bust for me to get it .... Housing crash would be a bad thing ......

[Gastines]

Just put one on the market in Dorset. Higher price, open to negotiation, 2 full price offers in 4 days.???  Last crash a flat I had dropped £ 40.000 in 2 months. You win some and lose quite a few.

Regards.

[KathyF]

According to the report from the IMF which I've just seen quoted on the BBC news website

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7049930.stm

the UK isn't the only country facing a possible downturn in property values.  France, Spain, the Netherlands and the Republic of Ireland are also mentioned as being at risk.  Perhaps your header needs revising, Ernie....

[Gastines]

Why do I think we are a totally manipulated population?Boys at the top getting bonuses of millions, P.William spending £11000 + on one night of drinkipoos. Hospital managers who don't do their job,resign and stand to get £250.000 severance pay? To cap it all I just had my Impot demand. Not much and at least I can say I +  my better half, are paying into La Belle France. 

I am now looking for a tin box, not very big, to go under the bed before someone else decides to take a slice!!

Regards.

[Frederick]

Gastines ....good luck selling your Dorset property.......havent noticed any downturn in Dorset yet....in fact people seem to have a few bob in their pockets at the moment ......like a guy round the corner from me who is taking wife and two boys to the match in Paris this wekend ..........only 6 grand !!!....I think I retired too early ......

[Gastines]

Yes, there is definately some big money in PARTS of Dorset. Not in that bracket I might add but I notice  one property in Lilliput is on the market for £12.500. 000. Not quite what is in my budget. I watched about 10 mins of the LIVE property show last night and thought it was the horrendous. Take Bournemouth for example, some people might think it is a choice area, the sandy beaches etc. etc, BUT  half a mile in any direction  you could be in Millionaires Row or druggies paradise.

Regards.

[Framboise]

Same applies to a lot of places Gastines - prime areas yet with some crummy, drug-infected neighbourhoods alongside them. 

Near me there is a sort of  Bath-esque mock-Georgian curved terrace of houses, price averaging £600,000 upwards,  alongside these we have  (built by the developers at the same time in order to smooth their planning applications through)  an estate of housing association properties, populated by a great deal of Wrong 'Uns.  The two estates are separated by a 6 foot wall for all its worth, but can you imagine having paid over 600k for your piece of suburbia to have soiled nappies, bricks and other detritus hurled over the wall into your garden (such as it is)?   One lady I know had her small children playing out in the garden when a chunk of paving flew over the wall narrowly missing her toddler son!   

As I said on another posting, my son is moving into this house when we go to France because he wants to stay in the area yet hasn't a hope in hell of doing so because property is ridiculously expensive, indeed some of his friends have had to move further out just to get a foothold on the housing ladder.   This way he can stay in the place he has grown up in and we know our house is in safe hands, but in an ideal world he would not be faced with such a decision.   A bouyant housing market is all very well if you happen to be selling, yet it absolutely crucifies the youngsters who desperately want to buy their own home and cannot because prices are ridiculously high for the tiniest of flats.  (He is currently renting a 1 bed unfurnished flat for nearly 700pcm - its the size of a rabbit hutch - no bills included.  Madness!)

Maybe a slump in the housing  boom will be a good thing in one respect, although for those who bought at the top of the market it will bring a great deal of heartache when they find themselves lumbered with a huge mortgage on a house thats not worth what they paid for it?   On the other hand, the Govt. has announced that it intends to grab large tracts of Green Belt land - supposedly meant to be the Lungs of London - to build more housing the likes of that we unfortunately have here already, and this is just to keep up with the quota required in order to house all the people demanding accommodation.   The way I see it is that in the not-too-distant future, London will encompass everything within the M25, a sprawling, seething mass of suburbia held in place by the peripherique, when the likes of Surrey will be absorbed into London as Middlesex has been over the years.   Already its hard to differentiate between the various villages/towns of the area as they have blurred together as the place became more built-up, but once the Green Belt goes that will be it.  Stuffed!

Boy am I glad I won't be here to witness it myself.  [:(]

[Gastines]

One of the most frightening decisions is how to help your children,albeit now they have grown up,with the housing situation. One aspect is also the partner situation.If you dig too deep in your pocket and they fall out with their partner,it is very difficult to try and do the same again after the asset divide. We have one daughter,divorced [thankfully ,given the situation ] who is on a fixed rate mortgage.We dread to think of the increase when the term finishes next year. It's funny how things have changed over the years,if I had asked my father for the loan of a Fiver,I dread to think what he would have said,apart from "NO, earn it."Nowadays it seems the bank of mum and dad is becoming like the cash card. An example of the problem in the ratio between earnings and property values can easily be seen in Bournemouth. The only area I know well enough to compare prices. The property is very expensive,outside London one of the dearest places to live, whilst the wages/salaries are amongst the lowest in the country.

I thank my lucky stars that I don't have a mortgage now and don't have to worry what Mr.Brown/Darling or any other incumbent is going to sting me for.

Regards.

[Poppy]

Unfortunately the same thing is happening around us in France. CUs are being given for huge areas of land which was once the equivalent of Green Belt and villages are joining up. Permis are being allowed for all sorts of buildings, wooden chalets, prefabs, mobile homes. Have noticed if a larger reasonable looking house appears then it seems to be occupied by either more than one family or several generations. OOps musn't say more but would love to tell the French they are going down the wrong road. Excuse the pun [:D] Strange thing is that not even the 'shoot' seem to be able to stop this urbanisation;

[Deimos]

One thing I have noticed is that

compared to "my day" first time buyers are wanting to buy

younger and expect more. I purchased my first house was some time

after I had finished studying and once I had been in secure

employment for some time and been able to save towards a deposit. My

first house was basically the minimum you could call a house. Two

bedrooms, really small terraced house purchased jointly with my then

girlfiend.

These days (from what one sees and

people say, kids want more and earlier. They seem to expect houses

closer to where they live with their parents. I saw some interesting

TV programs where a property expert was showing first time buyers how

they actually could afford properties. In all cases she failed

because the e.g. student did not want to live in a small two

bedroomed house but wanted a large 3+ bedroomed house with large

garden. I do wonder to what extent the 1st time buyer issues are

aggravated by their expectations.

All that then feeds into how property

is just "too expensive" and thus people start talking about

crashes.

Ian

[mint]

Ian

I can't agree more.  These days they expect to have equipment like ovens, washing machines, dishwashers, what have you.  And OF COURSE they all have a car to park in the garage!

I remember our first house had to be in the West Country, miles away from St Albans where we were living with parents because that was the place where we could afford to buy.  We had to sort out new jobs, etc.

All the family "contributed" by buying us bits of furniture for birthdays and Christmases, and "donated" paint and wallpaper, etc.

Nothing wrong with having higher expectations, of course; after all society, as a whole, is supposed to be more affluent.  The trouble is when expectaions are unrealistic and the people involved have not a hope in hell of fulfilling them.

[Frederick]

When I bought my first house I went to the CO-OP building society for the mortgage .....now the Nationwide  I recall the manager telling me that any mortgage I took out ....if the monthly payment was more than my weekly wage ...then I could not afford it and bring up a family ...best advice I have ever had .....

[Gastines]

Size is important,someone once said! Obviously not a builder. I looked at the details of some new builds in UK yesterday. The lounge was 11.8" x 9.5" +3 bedrooms all substantially smaller.Described as a family home?

I do wish they'd start thinking metric,I've virtually forgotten Imperial.

Regards.

[Framboise]

Strange thing is that we raised four kids here in this little house, our bedroom barely has enough space to walk around the bed unless you go sideways, but our bedroom in France is 20' x 20' - it feels like sleeping in Wembley Stadium!

Yes youngsters today expect all the bells 'n whistles when the look for a house, but then we parents have probably spoilt them by providing the microwave, dishwasher etc.,  so much so that they cannot function without them.   Mine also believe in The Laundry Fairy - the one that collects up their stuff from the floor, washes, irons and returns it but that is not standard issue in many homes is it?

New houses are being built smaller than places built pre-war.  Locally one decent four-bed detached house has been flattenned to be replaced with four miniscule boxes, and they sell like hot cakes despite them having a couple of slabs as a garden front & back, coupled with bedrooms marginally bigger than mine.   I know which of mine I prefer.

[Chassaing]

I don't know if or when a housing crash will come, but if it does then a depression is also a real risk.  But there is always hope if you are mortgage free you stand a chance.

In the 1930s people became mortgage free this way.....

http://memory.loc.gov/learn/features/timeline/depwwii/depress/hoovers.html

[geno]

It's so unfair to complain that young people expect too much;there just aren't enough family

properties in the south east of England to cope with demand; many are (under)

occupied by empty-nester/elderly couples or singles, or used part time - no doubt including

many forum users.

If you're a single person in a 5 bed house you'll still get a reduction in council tax?

How thought out is that? It's a slap in the face of those of us trying to raise kids.

The current workforce is paying the current pensions of the retired generation, and my generation is

having to pay for our own as well because we will get roughly zero. The argument that "we paid our dues" is completely wrong - you jsut didn't pay enough.

What *is* happening, is that immigrants from other countries are prepared to bring their families

up in small flats. Your sons and daughters find this unacceptable and are emmigrating, to France.

Spain, Canada, Australia or even further afield.

The elder generation need to consider if they're paying too little, and if this carries on you will lose

your childen and grandchildren far overseas to pay for you generous benefits.

[ someone who can only just afford a small family house within 1 hr of london on £100k a year and the last sibling left in Europe out of 3 ]

[Deimos]

[quote user="geno"]

If you're a single person in a 5 bed house you'll still get a reduction in council tax?

How thought out is that? It's a slap in the face of those of us trying to raise kids.

[/quote]

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that

Council Tax (or whatever they call it these days) is intended as a

means to pay for local services and not as a method of controlling

use of housing. A single person uses significantly lower council

resources yet still only gets a 25% reduction (so is effectively

paying proportionately more than couple or family).

Then look at other forms of tax. A single person

pays MORE tax than a family (by the time you allow for married/child

this that and the other allowances/credits/etc.). But then of course

a single person probably does not have children needing schooling,

health care, etc. yet his/her taxes still contribute to all this.

I'm not anti-kids but I'm afraid I get a bit

annoyed when people with families and kids fail to see how much

single childless people contribute to people with families raising

kids. We (single & childless) chose not to have kids yet still

contribute in a big way to those who chose to have them.

Ian

[darnsarf]

"I'm not anti-kids but I'm afraid I get a bit annoyed when people with families and kids fail to see how much single childless people contribute to people with families raising kids. We (single & childless) chose not to have kids yet still contribute in a big way to those who chose to have them.

Ian"

Maybe because, on average, those kids will contribute to the economy which will be supporting the services needed to those who are retired/elderly. As the costs of caring for an increasingly aged population grow, and sophisticated healthcare costs rise dramatically, we'll need to incentivise/invest in children. Similarly, there is a huge proportion of elderly people who are looked after by their 'children'. Those without children, can call on the State or hope their own welath will enable them to pay for care.

 

 

 

[Russethouse]

Surely the greatest factor in whether prices will 'steady, rise or fall is supply and demand ? This summer a relative was looking for a house with the potential for 4 beds or 4 beds and the selection was minimal ........too many people chasing too few houses will always result in the prices remaining stable or rising surely.

[woolybanana]

Only if they have got the dosh to buy. If there is a credit shortage then there will be no mortgages, though I am not convinced it will happen.

[Russethouse]

If you are trying to get on the housing ladder it seems there is always someone with the dosh, more dosh than you have available anyway.

One thing that may steady the market is a change in tax relief on investments which may mean that those who have invested in buy to let property may rush to cash in ........my sister explained it to me, she is the expert....something to do with taper relief I think.

[Deimos]

[quote user="darnsarf"]"I'm not anti-kids but I'm afraid I get a bit annoyed when people with families and kids fail to see how much single childless people contribute to people with families raising kids. We (single & childless) chose not to have kids yet still contribute in a big way to those who chose to have them.

Ian"

Maybe because, on average, those kids will contribute to the economy which will be supporting the services needed to those who are retired/elderly. As the costs of caring for an increasingly aged population grow, and sophisticated healthcare costs rise dramatically, we'll need to incentivise/invest in children. Similarly, there is a huge proportion of elderly people who are looked after by their 'children'. Those without children, can call on the State or hope their own welath will enable them to pay for care.

[/quote]

I broadly agree. However, at the moment there are

plenty of people in the world (also given the limitations of world

resources) and we really don't need loads more. Paying for pensions,

ageing population, etc. is a geographic effect. In the UK the issue

of earners paying for aged is actually being handled through

immigration. Seems to me that the UK is doing well in this regard.

Immigrants are hard working, etc. and bring a load of advantages.

As I said, no problem with others choosing to have

kids - just rubs salt in so to speak when people start complaining

because single childless people have a larger house than they do and

then people complain about the fact that single people get a

reduction in rates (when it is in fact paying over the odds anyway).

I chose not to have kids. Others chose to. It is

not for those who chose to have kids to tell me I must subsidise

their kids, live in a smaller house than I can afford, etc. In the

same way it is not for me to say they should not have kids and I also

should/do recognise the importance kids to the economy. I will not

be told to live in a smaller house and way disproportionately more

for council services because I chose not to have children.

Ian

[Deimos]

[quote user="Russethouse"]Surely the greatest factor in whether prices will 'steady, rise or fall is supply and demand ? This summer a relative was looking for a house with the potential for 4 beds or 4 beds and the selection was minimal ........too many people chasing too few houses will always result in the prices remaining stable or rising surely.[/quote]

I wonder if it is more complex than that and if

psychological factors play an important part. I agree about the

supply and demand determining prices but I would guess a lot of

houses sold are not new builds. Thus the supply will depend on

people putting their houses on the market. The demand will depends

on 1st time buyers and people who are putting their houses on the

market. Thus if I decide to move I will be putting a house on the

market and also looking for a house - causing no net change in supply

and demand.

Choosing to move (i.e. sell your and buy another)

might depend on a load of factors, sometimes not related to the

economy or availability of credit (e.g. kids left home and parents

decide to move to smaller home). When people are moving "up the

ladder".

Ian