euros to £'s

[dragonrouge]

Today I spoke to CA about buying pounds as against holding euros and upon which I get relatively little in interest.

 

They have quoted me 1.29158 and I do not think that is much of a margin to take a chance of xferring what I hold in euros to £'s.  I think I will leave it to the professionals.

regards

[Baz]

I agree that you should leave the money markets to the so called professionals, but the rated quoted today is 1.28366€ so the rate quoted by CA does not sound too bad. The rate exactly a year ago was 1.47368€.

Baz

[cooperlola]

Don't remind me, Baz![:-))]  But I agree, that rate sounds OK to me.

[LEO]

[quote user="cooperlola"]Don't remind me, Baz![:-))]  But I agree, that rate sounds OK to me.[/quote]

I have a hunch, now may be a good time to buy pounds , provided you are a risk taker!

[Jaguar]

So, you want to take a gamble on the exchange rates? How long for? Sterling is sliding down because the UK economy is uncertain, not just because of problems from the so-called credit crunch which is having very much the same effect everywhere else, but because of bad management. Forget all those tales about 'prudent' Gordon Brown. If he had been prudent then the economy could be boosted by tax cuts; instead he has spent the vast amount of credit he had and borrowed heavily. Many of the jobs he is supposed to have created are non jobs which will go when the position worsens (probably why he is so keen for the disabled to be 'forced' back into work) and the housing market is a shambles. The need to cut interest rates is obvious yet inflation has risen slightly to 3% so there is little hope for any cut. Mortgage repossessions are growing; far, far too many blocks of apartments are still being built and new planning applications sought. The rate of house building has decreased and will decrease further despite the government 'determination' to increase more and more.

The UK is not going to recover easily, no matter what happens in the US. Against that picture and the falling dollar (the stated intent is for a strong dollar but Washington is quietly happy for it to sink lower to ease their position) we see Jean Claude Trichet expressing concern at the continued rise of the euro. Hence the poor rates.

Now we all know that sudden and unexpected changes occur. Unless we are blessed with exquisite foresight then timing for the gamble between exchange rates and interest rates is just that. Which is the more important - capital or interest? [8-|]

[Quillan]

I think it depends of if you are looking a short or long term profits.

The Euro/sterling exchange rate will get better, for sterling, but not in the immediate futures. It will probably get back to the low 1.40 ish area but not this year. As I said in another thread if you fancy a punt and have some 'spare' cash floating about it might be worth a go but not on my recommendation I hasten to add. Then and again you can always bet on a few horses with better luck.

I slightly disagree about the credit crunch. Still the adverts are on TV, if you have trouble getting a loan (CCJ etc, etc) there are companies still offering them at high rates. I, and others, have been saying for the last 2 to 3 years that this is not sustainable and I'm no expert. The problem is that these loans are second charges so when people can't pay their house is repossessed. Because it's not the mortgage companies but the second charge loan company these repossessions don't go in to the stats because, if you watch carefully they are only mortgage repossessions. What I love is those Brits I know who bought houses round here a few years back because they 'consolidated' their finances when what they really mean is they got a loan but they don't see it that way, thats not what the advert said, brainwashed or what.

Interesting there was a bit on the money section of the BBC this morning about flats being empty and the price of them falling by 15% in total in the last 4 months. If you tune in now it will probably be repeated later on, it normally is.

[PaulT]

[quote user="Jaguar"](probably why he is so keen for the disabled to be 'forced' back into work)
[/quote]

Perhaps it is because it can be very easy to claim disability benefits. For those that are truly disabled then the benefits are most needed. However, there are those who are not but find it easy to claim these benefits. Why, as a UK taxpayer should I fund their lifestyle.

To go one further there was an article about 3rd generation unemployment benefit takers. Two said that it was their right to claim from the state - for that read sponge of taxpayers.

Earlier in the week unemployment figures were published for various areas as a percentage of the inhabitants of a working age - and they were amazing.

Perhaps the UK does need to change from one in which it freely doles out money to one where there are more checks. If it did so then perhaps there would be less people passing through France trying to get entry, by any means, to the UK.

Paul

[chessfou]

[quote]the UK economy is uncertain, not just because of problems from the

so-called credit crunch which is having very much the same effect

everywhere else[/quote][jaguar]

I beg to disagree. The credit crunch is likely to have a much greater impact on the uk (in general) than the rest of Europe.

The best analyses I have seen suggest (at best) a 5% hit to GDP (total uk GDP ca. £1,000bn).

That hit to uk GDP is made up of -£30bn (MEW - mortgage equity withdrawal) and -£20bn (result of higher mortgage rates going forward - for those that can get a mortgage rate at all, since funding will be restricted and much more expensive), making £50bn less for discretionary spending.

By my reckoning, that makes it about 5x worse for the uk than say France or Germany (which didn't have any MEW to "lose" and had far less mortgage borrowing anyway, so at worst say -£10bn p.a. for their GDP).

[Jaguar]

[quote user="P2"]

[quote user="Jaguar"](probably why he is so keen for the disabled to be 'forced' back into work)

[/quote]

Perhaps it is because it can be very easy to claim disability benefits. For those that are truly disabled then the benefits are most needed. However, there are those who are not but find it easy to claim these benefits. Why, as a UK taxpayer should I fund their lifestyle.[/quote]

It is not easy to claim disability benefits; in fact those who really need them are frequently faced with appeals simply because the method of claiming has been made more and more of a trick question. Then medical reports and checks are always looked into. The government has said that mental illness will be looked at separately and yet the forms are still the same whether the disabled are in a wheel chair or bipolar. There is a website devoted to helping all those who need some guidance on how to claim and how the government is continuing to make claiming ever more difficult. There would be no need for this if the system was fair and proper.

I quite agree that none of us should be expected to pay to support benefit cheats. However the government has repeatedly stepped back from introducing systems that would have weeded out the fraudsters, and at their first attempt, because it is afraid of adverse publicity. The fact the we would all support that does not seem to come into their calculations. I remain convinced that this government are content to 'attack' the weakest as the easiest way of reducing the cost of claims and unemployment. Given that their stats show the latter is at a very low point it seems that they must realise that the non jobs will disappear and unemployment rise as a result. One way or another we are paying through our taxes whether we like it or not.

[Quillan]

Couldn't agree with you more Jaguar.

The other thing is of course how or who is to employ disabled people. Unless it has changed you are obliged (once you reach a certain number of employees) to take a disabled person on, there is, I believe, a quota although I no longer know what it is. This is a doubled edged sword, if I were disabled I would hate to think I had the job just because the company was told they had to take me. I would prefer to get it on my own merit after all being disabled does not mean you are stupid or thick, look at Steven Hawkins for example. Also, for some companies it can be a problem finding a position for them due to where they operate from etc. Surely the law should simply be that you have to take the right person for the job whatever colour, ethnic background or disability they have. But that's just wishful thinking I guess.

Like you I believe the government is always seeking to reduce it's spending and as you say pick on those that are the weakest. People who have never had to draw benefit or unemployment seem to be under the impression (often fueled by the press) that it's easy and the money is just handed over to you. I have only had to draw unemployment benefit once (20 years ago) when the company I worked for went bust. Not only was it a long drawn our horrific experience it was incredibly difficult. I can't see that it's got any easier unless I have missed something.

Perhaps in regards to benefit cheats (and other things like underage drinking etc) ID cards would be the way forward. There have been loads of negative press about them but in this day and age they can can help in loads of different areas. It could be linked to the P45 system (to determine if you left or were sacked etc and thus decides what benefits you are entitled to), if you are registered disabled etc. The card reader machines are everywhere so they have the hardware it's simply a matter of new software being added.

[Jaguar]

I do not argue on the analyses you quote, chesfou, only on their assumptions. I always find it interesting to see where these analysts start their assumptions from before looking at what results they produce. Consequently the 'results' you have seen are of no real meaning without solid facts to start with. There cannot be much new MEW as the market has virtually closed for this, keeping funds to allow for new mortgages which in turn are reducing as the housing market slows down both in numbers and prices. The assumption for higher mortgage rates is a huge generalisation. Take the case of First Direct which has now shut down all new applications whilst it manages what it has. To slow the numbers of applications it could have increased the rate substantially (already at a low point and offering the 'best' choice) but it chose not to do so because of the howls of protest that would have ensued.

Historically we know what will happen. House prices are vastly out of line with increases in incomes. When there is a realignment then the market will return to 'normal'. The BoE has already pumped substantial sums into the market and will do more as it sees fit. Our economy is faltering and GDP growth 'will' be about half of what the politicians expected last November. That is the real problem we face. That will have a negative impact upon taxes raised and this government which has failed to make any allowance for such an occurrence now seeks to grab as much tax from all sources that it can. In fact it is quite happy to see higher fuel costs because of the extra revenue generated.

The problems in the US which are blamed upon the so called credit crunch are much more deep seated and the frauds perpetrated there are a very serious factor. Only when the FBI has finished its investigation will be know more. The sub prime fiasco has been the catalyst which set the ball rolling. Those banks which happily doled out money and have already written off enormous sums will surely need even more readjustment to capital. That is a sector problem. The major worry is the whole US economy. I believe that it is in recession now and has been for at least a few months. It is that which concerns me most simply because the US economy has been the powerhouse that we have all been swept along by. China will take over from the US in the near future but who knows what changes that will bring. In the meantime we should all be pinning our hopes on the FED and others to get that powerhouse moving again.

We are not in disagreement, just not enough facts to be sure of what is taking place!

[allanb]

[quote user="Quillan"]...it's simply a matter of new software being added.[/quote]You have more faith than I do in the government's ability to manage new software installations - and to avoid losing the data.

[Jaguar]

[quote user="allanb"][quote user="Quillan"]...it's simply a matter of new software being added.[/quote]You have more faith than I do in the government's ability to manage new software installations - and to avoid losing the data.

[/quote]

Now that's an area that needs a thread of its own. ID cards? Don't get me started on that, please.

[Quillan]

[quote user="allanb"][quote user="Quillan"]...it's simply a matter of new software being added.[/quote]You have more faith than I do in the government's ability to manage new software installations - and to avoid losing the data.
[/quote]

Coming from the IT industry in a previous life and having seen some of this stuff first hand it's more down to the inability of the government to write a proper specification, understand what they want, listen to the people who operate the systems and understand basic computer security. They also have a nasty habit of buying the cheapest even though they say price is not the issue but quality is. The old saying of save a penny spend a pound comes to mind. They are also rather lousy at writing contracts often leaving more holes than you find in a colander which are then manipulated by companies that see a government contract as a licence to print money. The term GIGO comes to mind. I think you might find that those consultants who have read how some of this stuff has gone missing have been gobsmacked to see that a system can be designed with so little security for such sensitive data.