Beating the Exchange Rate

[mint]

[quote user="Quillan"][quote user="sweet 17"][quote user="cowoman"]

Does anyone keep chickens ? Free range eggs work out at around 23p each here in UK..

I dontdont know what they cost in France but if you have got eggs you are never short of a good ingredient for all home made food.From breakfast ,curry,cakes etc

I think  keeping chucks would be a a fun thing to do too.

[/quote]

No good for me at all.  I have a "Working Cocker Spaniel" (that's her official breed) and she loves chickens...to kill them I mean.

She's killed 2 since we have been in France whilst out for walks and I couldn't really tell you about it here because I am still distressed at finding out that I have a killer-dog instead of the gentle, affectionate people-loving pet that I thought I'd brought to France.

[/quote]

Well the cure is simple, keep the dog on the lead. There's no such thing as a bad dog, just a bad owner (thats a general comment by the way). In 18 months I have lost 10 chickensthatsto dogs and the next dog that attacks my chickens (and I am a dog loving person by the way) will be shot. Its not nice having a dog rip a chicken apart in front of your guests while they are eating dinner. I am not the only one who feels this way and if you live in France believe me the French are far less tolerant than us Brits when it comes to this sort of thing. So for your own dogs safety do the right thing and keep it on a lead. Actually I thought the first line of your post was a bit off to be honest, not funny at all, in fact quite upsetting.
[/quote]

Quillan

I am indeed sorry if my post offended you.  Believe me, I don't find it a "funny" thing that my dog has killed 2 chickens.

I was devastated and completely taken aback because it was the last thing I'd expected to happen. She was used to chasing pheasants back in the UK but it didn't bother me too much because she never caught any.

In my defence, the first time, we were walking near a chateau in a quiet part of town (she'd been in the car and on the lead for a good couple of hours) where we thought the park-like public grounds was OK for letting her off the lead.  We'd only been in France for a month at that time and we didn't know to expect to find free range chickens absolutely everywhere (including in town).  It was my husband's birthday and it was the most awful thing when we found that the chicken belonged to an elderly lady who probably depended on the bird for eggs to supplement her pension.

Won't describe again our attempts to compensate madame and how understanding and kind she was.  I'd have felt a lot better if she'd shouted and cursed us but she treated us and our dog with gentleness and good humour.

The second time, we were walking on a disused railway line which has been turn into a tarmaced path for walkers and cyclists.  Again, she was off the lead because we thought it was "safe".  Too late, she climbed a steep bank and was in someone's garden.  We didn't even realise there was a house hidden behind trees.  That second episode was also when we were new to France.

Now, we recce all walks on our own before using it as a regular dog walk. Or keep her on a lead until we know that there are absolutely no chickens or other animals about.  If we go somewhere new to us, she is kept on a very short lead indeed.  In friends' houses, where there are chickens, we either do not take her or, if we absolutely have to because we expect to be away a long time, she is tied to the leg of the chair on which I sit.

We were just ignorant of conditions in France and it certainly was no laughing matter for us.  Sometimes I say things in posts in a jokey way to lighten the mood (mine and the readers').  It is no indication of how I really feel about things. 

[Patf]

Sweet 17 - I have pm'd you.

[mint]

Thank you, Pat and thanks for alerting me to the message.  For some strange reason, I no longer get an email if I have messages waiting.

Am now also reminded to check for messages!

Cheers!

[Quillan]

Sweet 17 - Thanks for the apology and accepted. It was the first line that got me especially after recent events here with dogs and chickens. Perhaps I am a bit over sensitive at the moment on the issue.

Sorry to go of subject.

[Kitty]

I beat the exchange rate by trying not to spend money, euros or pounds...

 

[allanb]

[quote user="Logan"][If you understand how markets operate predictability is key to the difference between making money and losing it.[/quote]

Undoubtedly.  But that's about as useful as saying that if you know which horse is going to win the race you can make money on it.

[Logan]

[quote user="allanb"][quote user="Logan"][If you understand how markets operate predictability is key to the difference between making money and losing it.[/quote]

Undoubtedly.  But that's about as useful as saying that if you know which horse is going to win the race you can make money on it.

[/quote]

Usually by study of the form book you can. Horses like markets are predictable. Success comes from knowing where to look.

[anniefromwales]

I understand predictability all right. If I've bet on it, it will lose.

[allanb]

Logan: I still don't think you've got it right.

Studying the form book won't tell you which horse will win.  It will let you assess each horse's probability of winning.  In order to make money, you not only have to do that, you have to do it better than the bookies.

(When I say "make money", I mean make money reliably in the long term - I'm not talking about a single race.)

It seems to me that there's a strong similarity with the currency markets.   You can't make money just by knowing that a particular rate is likely to fall, for instance.    If the market as a whole thinks the same, that probability will be allowed for in interest rates and the forward price.   To make money you have to "know" that the change will be different from what the market expects - and you have to be willing to bet on it.

(PS)  There is another way, apparently: find out what Anniefromwales is betting on, and bet on the opposite.

[mint]

Thanks for a good giggle, allanb.  By golly, you're an astute man if ever there is one. 

[Logan]

Returning to markets and exchange rates. The issue was if currency markets were predictable or as another poster wrote 'like the weather, unpredictable in the medium to long term.'

I happen to believe that is wrong and that it is possible to predict where some exchange rates will be over that period. It is not so difficult. If you follow all the factors which influence a countries economic performance you will likely be able to estimate the currency value against at least Dollar/Euro in the short/medium term.

I except you have to be an involved market watcher, follow form and have various facilities at your disposal.

Profit is made on an average performance not all the time against a spread of different currencies. It would be unrealistic to expect to get it right 100% of the time.

It may seem an unlikely scenario that exchange rates are predictable. That maybe due to the factors which cause them to move are not fully understood. It is also not an occupation for the faint hearted.

[parsnips]

[quote user="Logan"][quote user="allanb"] (a) rates are more or less unpredictable, and (b) if they were predictable, "experts" would predict them, and would make more money than they can make by writing newspaper articles. 

[/quote].

For example a few days ago Sterling had been happily trading in a band between 1.25 - 1.28. That had been stable for some weeks. Then Mr Darling gave his gloom and doom interview to The Guardian. Result Sterling now trades in a band of 1225 - 1.245.

It is very predictable that Sterling will not improve against the Euro until such time as the British economy returns to sustainable growth. It is also predictable that that will not happen for a least 2 years.

If you understand how markets operate predictability is key to the difference between making money and losing it.[/quote]

        Today 1845hrs, Sterling at 1.251, does this mean Sterling now happily trading in a band between 1.25 and 1.28 again, or is this a freak blip against predictability?

[Logan]

The answer to that is see the Euro rate against the Dollar. It's falling due to poor economic news from Germany/Spain. Consequently Sterling receives a small up tick.

All reasonably predictable.

[parsnips]

So, this morning, 1.257, --also, presumably predictable---how much profit have you made on the Forex market this week?

[parsnips]

[quote user="Logan"]The answer to that is see the Euro rate against the Dollar. It's falling due to poor economic news from Germany/Spain. Consequently Sterling receives a small up tick.

All reasonably predictable.[/quote]

[Quillan]

I am afraid this predictability does not wash with me either. I understand "hindsight" like something is announced and a currency changes but then you have to know its going to be announced and what its content is to be able to predict the result. I think, however,  that its called insider trading and one goes to prison if discovered.

I would like to believe what Logan has written but find it to difficult so I have come up with a solution which based on everything Logan has written in this thread will be of no problem to him and its quite simple. What will the exchange rate be at the end of every month for the next 6 months and lets be fair to within 0.02 Euros (two cents either way). I guess what I am doing is asking Logan to put his money where his mouth is sort of thing [;-)] . Meanwhile I am off to ask the bookies for their predictions. I think the result will be that it's not so easy to predict as first thought.

[Logan]

I am not sure what point your are trying to make here. Just simply proving me wrong? Whilst I continually try to suggest ways and means of advantage. All meets with derision.

I shall just continue playing my own game. Successfully I might add for many years. Keeping an open mind to ideas and invention can often prove rewarding. The open mind is usually the stumbling block.

Try making up your own minds how this news will effect currencies this week:-

http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M57a36463e07.0.html

http://www.ft.com/markets/currencies

[Quillan]

[quote user="Logan"]I am not sure what point your are trying to make here. Just simply proving me wrong? Whilst I continually try to suggest ways and means of advantage. All meets with derision.

I shall just continue playing my own game. Successfully I might add for many years. Keeping an open mind to ideas and invention can often prove rewarding. The open mind is usually the stumbling block.

Try making up your own minds how this news will effect currencies this week:-

http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M57a36463e07.0.html

http://www.ft.com/markets/currencies[/quote]

Sorry if it appears that way. What I was trying to do, as I like many I don't have access to somebody like you in my normal day to day life, was give you the opportunity to show us how its done and to prove to us that this type of predictability works. I read your two links but to be honest it could have been rocket science and what can you predict from that, I don't understand. Go on give my idea a try and show us how we also can predict, and profit from, the market. Think of it as back to school with us being the pupils and you the teacher.

[allanb]

I agree with Quillan's sentiments.  I think Logan is making the mistake of assuming that because some piece of news was announced, and a rate changed, it must have been the news that caused the change.

I remember calling an FX dealer one morning (part of my job) and commenting that the dollar had gone up against the pound during the night - or maybe down; I forget which.  In your expert opinion, I asked him, why did that happen?   So-and-so broke the record last night for the number of home runs in a season, he said.  What on earth does that have to do with the exchange rate?  I said.  No idea, he said, but it must be that; there's practically nothing else on the front page this morning.

I knew him quite well and he had a sense of humour, but I think he was making a serious point.

 

[mint]

Like your post a lot, allanb.

Surely these exchange rate fluctuations are multi-faceted?  Therefore, it's not easy, if not impossible, to know which event causes which effect?

Also, as in allanb's story, sometimes rate changes have no apparent reason, or at least the reason is so obscure as to be impossible to link it to the changes.

Perhaps some big shot woke up one morning and feels so happy that he single-handedly moves his counter on the gamesboard?

[Logan]

You miss the point. It's too late once the news is announced. The trick is to spot trends from knowledge of the market, economies and how they perform on a day to day basis. I am not advocating this as a good idea for you. It's a profession (not mine), learned from experience and many years of expensive practice. Like any skill you cannot learn it overnight or in a week.

I only got into this debate because someone said currency markets were not predictable. I have tried to convince you that they are and sadly failed.

If I were to write and explain in detail here what I mean, Archant Life would ban me from the board. Perhaps to many people that would be no bad thing.

If you have a genuine interest in Forex dealings perhaps you should Google 'forex blogs'. It might be a start.

[Quillan]

[quote user="Logan"]You miss the point. It's too late once the news is announced. The trick is to spot trends from knowledge of the market, economies and how they perform on a day to day basis. I am not advocating this as a good idea for you. It's a profession (not mine), learned from experience and many years of expensive practice. Like any skill you cannot learn it overnight or in a week.

I only got into this debate because someone said currency markets were not predictable. I have tried to convince you that they are and sadly failed.

If I were to write and explain in detail here what I mean, Archant Life would ban me from the board. Perhaps to many people that would be no bad thing.

If you have a genuine interest in Forex dealings perhaps you should Google 'forex blogs'. It might be a start.[/quote]

Last post, honest.

OK Logan you obviously keep your ear to the ground and your eye on the many blogs and websites so where do you see the Euro in the new year. I mean as you keep reminding us it is predictable (if you know where to look although many of us don't and even if we did we wouldn't understand whats being said) shorely you have some idea which way its heading. Put it this way if I wanted to move some money from the UK to France and where not in any sort of panic when will I get the best exchange rate within say the next 6 months?

[Quillan]

[quote user="Logan"]If I were to write and explain in detail here what I mean, Archant Life would ban me from the board. [/quote]

Sorry just read that bit again, why is it rude [:D] .

[Logan]

This Quillan is all you will get from me.

Keep your money safely in Sterling for the next 2 years in a high interest investment account.

[mint]

Logan, don't you mean a high interest savings account as there is no such thing as a risk-free investment account?