Poverty and the Eurozone:

[Gluestick]

Most interesting analysis here:

The most significant point is the data emerges from Eurostat, the official statistical reporting body of the EU itself.

Thus even Norman cannot dismiss this as Neo-Con propaganda...

[idun]

I have no idea why the EU extended itself so much. I often wonder about it. For no good reason that I can think of it took on dirt poor eastern european countries. Poverty, it took on terrible poverty and that it is getting worse, sadly does not surprise me.

And then just to add to the mix, took countries into the € that were not running their budgets properly either, or at least a lot worse than others were.

None of it makes sense apart from some vagueness of power and expansionism and if it all lasts another 30 years, or maybe 50, I might be shocked if I last that long, which is rather doubtful!

[Gluestick]

[quote user="idun"]I have no idea why the EU extended itself so much. I often wonder about it. For no good reason that I can think of it took on dirt poor eastern european countries. Poverty, it took on terrible poverty and that it is getting worse, sadly does not surprise me.

And then just to add to the mix, took countries into the € that were not running their budgets properly either, or at least a lot worse than others were.

None of it makes sense apart from some vagueness of power and expansionism and if it all lasts another 30 years, or maybe 50, I might be shocked if I last that long, which is rather doubtful!

[/quote]

It cannot enjoy a continuum, as is,  for even five years, Idun.

As more and more analysts and even a leading German economist (At the Bundesebank no less) recently has stated, the concept of the Euro and its major flaw, was that it is simply a monetary recipe for shovelling capital from the successful stable Western economies, to the failed banana republic Southern economies.

Since the German taxpayer and voter picks up the lion's share of the tab for this (particularly the forward guarantees and warranties), at the cost of a reduced standard of living, due to increasing taxes; then one is compelled to pose the question; how long will they put up with this??

Not much longer must be the pragmatic response.

[Gluestick]

Here's an analysis I wrote and published in response to a topic back in 2010.

(n.b. Not for Wooly, sadly, as far too many complicated words! [:P] [:D] )

"The covert problem with the Euro is very simple: predicating a

currency system on such disparate economies and fiscal disparities,

means simply the wealthier and more successful economies will always be

expected to either bail out the basket cases or will be economically

handicapped by their membership of a flawed mechanism.Germany is already

suffering fiscally from the ingestion of East Germany and the state's

adoption of a raft of fiscal and financial obligations: worse, Germany

is the locomotive economy of the Eurozone, with vast global earnings

from industrial export driven activity.The Euro was allowed by the ECB

to become over-hard: thus handicapping German manufacturing exporters

yet further. The premise was a hard Euro represented success: whereas

the flight to Euro-denominated security was a reaction to exchange risk

exposure in failing reserve currency, mainly the US Dollar: thus the

effective cross-value of the Euro was predicated on external drivers,

not intended policy or true fiat valuation.The Sovereign Loan area is

already under the global capital market's microscope as increasingly

unstable: the bond market is fragile as never before.Waiting in the

wings are Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and potentially, Slovakia and

Slovenia: where all are over-leveraged and all have been spending and

borrowing far too much.Thus this is a systemic Sovereign Risk problem

endemic to the Eurozone. It is not just A Grecian hiccup.How long will

major successful state's manufacturing exporters and voters be prepared

to accept being penalised for other's profligate fiscal incompetence?

Not long I suggest, as such does not play well come election day!

Presently, the Great and the Good are assuring us exactly why the

Euro cannot fail: I would cynically comment the same applied right up to

the collapse of the Dot Com Bubble; the Wall Street Crash and the ERM

back in 1992."

[woolybanana]

How about we try to precis this in twenty simple words? I'll give a leek to the winner.

References to 'locomotives' and 'drivers' will not earn good marks!!

[Gluestick]

Bearing in mind, Wooly, it was in a leading economics publication; and to enjoy gravitas, such tomes are not noted for simplicity. Neither are economists...

BTW: Found some leeks now; had leek and 'tata soup for lunch and it was splendid.

Mainly since it, well, tasted leeky!

P.S. We used to make Leak and Potato Soup.

No good as it dripped out of the soup lug.

[Www]

[powerdesal]

Wooly, I am not an economist, just a simple Engineer but.....I understood every word and nuance of it.

[EuroTrash]

"the wealthier and more successful economies will always be expected to either bail out the basket cases or will be economically handicapped by their membership of a flawed mechanism"

I wonder to what extent the use of the word "expected" reflects a very British view? It suggests we can all take it for granted that no country would ever WANT to bail out another country for "the greater good". But, as has been pointed out by several EU members, that is what the EU is all about, just Britain never did embrace the EU ideal. Time will tell whether or not the other states believe in this ideal strongly enough to pull through.

If you marry a person, do you spend your married life bickering about which of you is putting more into the marriage and which of you is getting most out, or do you put that aside and focus on making the marriage work?

[idun]

 LOL, I know plenty of couples who live by the former, not only money but household jobs etc etc etc...... no way to live as far as I am concerned.

[Gluestick]

[quote user="EuroTrash"]"the wealthier and more successful economies will always be expected to either bail out the basket cases or will be economically handicapped by their membership of a flawed mechanism"

I wonder to what extent the use of the word "expected" reflects a very British view? It suggests we can all take it for granted that no country would ever WANT to bail out another country for "the greater good". But, as has been pointed out by several EU members, that is what the EU is all about, just Britain never did embrace the EU ideal. Time will tell whether or not the other states believe in this ideal strongly enough to pull through.

If you marry a person, do you spend your married life bickering about which of you is putting more into the marriage and which of you is getting most out, or do you put that aside and focus on making the marriage work?[/quote]

Sorry ET; illogical syllogism and conflates two disparate exemplars.

The key to this is fiscal profligacy. Greece, for example, welcomed EU funding and then the insanity of Sovereign Risk borrowing, to rapidly inflate its social spending. Greece was importing more Mercs,  BMWs and Porsches than almost any other EU state.

Furthermore, Greece, Italy, Portugal et al didn't just breech the Fiscal Compact they wholly ignored it! So much so that since most other Eurozone states were doing precisely the same, the fiscal compact rules had to re-written. And they were still ignored.

Charity and aid must not be confused with kindness and/or myopic do-gooding.

Dare I mention Camila Batmanghdelijh?

See Here:

If a marriage partner behaved in a similar profligate manner, then it would be off to a good Psycho- Therapist, or the divorce court, in most cases. Or failing those, the Bankruptcy Court

Britain and obviously the USA (Marshall Aid Plan) bailed out Germany post-WWII. The IMF has been effectively, bailing out problem economies, short-term, for many years.

Britain has been bailing our bankrupt ex-commonwealth states for many years; whilst the funds somehow made their way to the Swiss bank accounts of wholly corrupt leaders. Mugabi being a prime example.

Bailing out and being conned are two mutually exclusive actions.

[EuroTrash]

An " illogical syllogism and conflates two disparate exemplar", is it now - but not really, I don't think. It wasn't intended to be a syllogism (nor even a deduction), logical or not, and I don't think I was conflating two disparate exemplars, nor even muddling up two different ideas. My comment was intended to introduce a new focus to the argument, that it seemed to me you haven't paide enough attention to your thesis. There's what we do/did, but there's also why we do/did it, which is important because it has a bearing on how we're likely to act in the future.

And as Idun says, many marriage partners do act in that way, and those are indeed the marriages that end in divorce.

PS You mention breeches - I picture EU regulation breeches as blue, with big pockets, and a circle of yellow stars covering the backside. Is that how you see them too?

[woolybanana]

Oh ET, you seem to be getting Gloostuck's bad habits. Please tell me what exemplars are, what sygollisms is, what conflation is (I imagine reverse flatulence) and whomthe heck wears the breeches in that family?

[nomoss]

 

                                                                 [:D]

I think that people who use the more uncommon words should at least be able to spell the common ones [;-)]

[EuroTrash]

Well I think the Knights Exemplar were the soldiers of Christ in the Middle Ages weren't they, conflation must as you say be reverse flatulence, ie talking out of your backside in a confined space , so a fart in a bottle; and I don't know for sure if anyone in that family wears britches but I hope they all do.

[Gluestick]

[quote user="nomoss"] 

                                                                 [:D]

I think that people who use the more uncommon words should at least be able to spell the common ones [;-)]

[/quote]

Mea Culpa to "Breech", Nomoss.

In my defence I write most of these on the fly, between working (usually, when online doing something important.).

The letter "A" is near the letter "E" on my QUERTY keyboard; and at present, I am struggling with my fingers and hands.

My once fast and accurate typing, developed after many years, is pathetic at present.

Visiting the local hospital X Ray Dept, this very afternoon and hoping it can be sorted out from there.

Trigger finger on the left-hand and alleged Dupuytren Contracture on the right. It is a real pain: literally and figuratively.

Soon loading my Dragon software and dictating instead of typing.

[Gluestick]

[quote user="woolybanana"]Oh ET, you seem to be getting Gloostuck's bad habits. Please tell me what exemplars are, what sygollisms is, what conflation is (I imagine reverse flatulence) and whomthe heck wears the breeches in that family?[/quote]

A Syllogism oh yellow one is an Elizabethan desert delicacy, with leeks added.

Con-flation: is when Government tries to blame price hikes on inflation.

An Exemplar is an example of a Plar.

Plars are small niggly creatures who burrow into the dead part of people's cerebral cortex.

Endemic to places such as The Palace of Westminster, football teams, soap opera casts and their viewers ...

[Gluestick]

Just a little more on this topic.

Seems the Nobel Laureate Economist (and one of my heroes) Joe Stiglitz, shares the gloomy analysis of any continuum of the Euro and the monetary system in its present format.

See here:

And Here: