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Euro 1.26


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The UK will enter the single currency in 04/05.
Financially informed opinion gives the most likely entry level at 8.25ff/ (1.26Euros).
Even if we don't enter, the Rate will settle around this level,

Working from a Datum of 10ff/ (1.53)
A House and its buying costs will be effectively increased by 18%.
Pensions and Savings Income from the UK will be effectively reduced by 18%.

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>Working from a Datum of 10ff/
>A House and its buying costs
>will be effectively increased by
>Pensions and Savings Income from the
>UK will be effectively reduced
>by 18%.

I realise that with low interest rates and a lousy pension, the rate will make a difference, but when you consider that our Council Tax has just gone up by 17% to something probably in the region of 1500 for a normal house with a 17 x 30 FOOT garden and single garage, it will not be long at this rate before the CT equals or overtakes the State Pension.

Life for pensioners all over the world is going to get really really hard and in the UK it is estimated that 60% of all pensioners will need to take extra state benefits - it makes you think when you realise that 40% of all employed people work for the government and are probably the only ones with a guaranteed pension (paid by the taxpayers - so even that could fall over in the future).

With 2 duck breasts selling for 6 in Tesco's (this is a price that should be easily comparable with French prices) and other prices rising to match this, I know I can live cheaper and have a more interesting life in France. Wherever we are in the World, life is going to be very very difficult for us and we are the nice safe people who put money away in the stupid belief that our pension would be worth more than peanuts when we came to retire.

This is not a rehersal - this is life and I might as well spend what I have got left where I want to be - and that is France.

Oh yes, they put the Council Tax up by 17% and would not confirm that they will not charge for rubbish collection some time in the future - so what exactly does my 30 a week get spent on?


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It is far from certain that the UK will join the Euro in 2004/5 or in the next ten years. As to the level that it will join at, that too can be nothing more than a guess. There are far too many uncertainties to make a meaningful estimate.

There are also some factors which are likely to encourage Sterling to strengthen including the likely outperformance of the UK economy relative to its European neighbours, and the potential dilution of the Euro when the new group of weaker member states are integrated. The possibility of reduced European trade arising from France/Germany's dispute with the US would also benefit Sterling

Frankly were the UK to join, it could just as easily be at 1.75 as 1.25. If it was a one-way bet it would be simple for currency speculators to profit from it. There are no one-way bets in a free market, only when someone is artificially supporting it (like 1992 ERM). The current level of the currency takes into account the chances of an early entry. It is all too easy to see a market trend and assume that it will continue, but numerous stock-market crashes should remind us that most things don't go one way for ever.
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Financially informed opinion, but just what exactly does it mean?

Opinion is defined as, a judgement or belief based on grounds short of proof

Therefore it just means you have been informed of a financial judgement or belief based on grounds short of proof.

Without any proof, I don't think it's worth worrying people just yet do you?

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In fact it has been widely reported that the referendum on the Euro will now not take place this year.
With a minimum lead in time of two years if there was a YES vote,means the earliest possible implementation date is 2006/7.
As someone who works in the Finance industry I know that no currency analysts predict currency rates more than twelve months forward,so what the rate will need to be in 3 to 5 years time to allow the UK to enter the Euro at a competitive conversion rate is anyones guess.
What is known is that the existing EURO members,especially France and Germany,will not allow the UK to gain unfair competitive advantage for it's exports by entering the Euro at too low a conversion rate.Therefore,any conversion rate under 1.35 is unlikely to be allowed on political grounds.
Finally,the French and German politicians are starting to complain about the current strength of the Euro against the US$,and the threat that posses to their fragile economies in competing against US manafacturers.Therefore,increased Euro strength is not only unlikely in the longer term, but would probably be discouraged by the Euro members as being unhelpful to their economies.
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