Bird flu, pigs and humans

[Logan]

What has been obviously missing from the current media reporting, except from very high level scientific institutions (which are easily ignored by most) is open discussion of the role that pigs play in the bird flu threat. The risk we are taking by permitting large scale pig raising operations, in which tens of thousands of pigs are closely confined, is substantial. Bird flu is transmissible (but requires fairly intense exposure to body fluids) from bird to people, but not yet from people to people. It's also fairly readily transmissible from birds to pigs. The problem is that it is within the pig that the bird flu virus can recombine genetically with other flu viruses that pigs harbour, and can thereby attain genetic capacity to be transmissible from human to human. It's amazing to me that commercial interests in factory style pig farming are powerful enough to keep this aspect of the threat off the radar screen. I would predict that the first human to human cases will be traced not to bird exposure, but to swine exposure. Pigs are often raised in areas where they come in contact with fowl, so it's easy for them to get bird flu, and then act as huge recombination vessels.  I'm afraid this is not very reassuring. I think the only glimmer of hope is that IF recombination to a human to human transmissible virus doesn't take place for a year or so, there may be adequate time for vaccine production. Of course, most countries don't have the public health infrastructure to vaccinate everyone, so there would still likely be large mortality rates in many areas. It really is a problem for everyone. It is odd how viruses tend to lose their virulence over time. There is the hope that by the time the bird flu mutates to become transmissible among humans, perhaps it will have become less deadly. It is not a case of IF the virus passes from human to human, more a case of when. The population should not continually seek reassurance from politicians we need to demand protective and decisive action now.

[Teamedup]

How come there hasn't been a real outbreak of human bird flu in SE Asia then. Many of the countries who have has many cases bird flu and have had the odd human case rear huge numbers of pigs as well as poultry.

You are right though, ne'er a mention of where pigs fit into all this.

[crdale]

[quote user="Logan"]

 I think the only glimmer of hope is that IF recombination to a human to human transmissible virus doesn't take place for a year or so, there may be adequate time for vaccine production.

[/quote]

 

That might not be the case because to become human to human transmissible the virus needs to mutate and in doing so it might make all vaccines already produced useless, mind you it might also make the virus virtually harmless at the same time it is largely down to sheer luck

 

Chris