Logan

It seems the close political relationship between France and Germany which has lasted over fifty years is now at an end. This article explains:- http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europe/europes-closest-friendship-falls-apart-788582.html Personally I am not a fan of the European Union and see this development as a positive move both for France and the UK. I think that for too long now France and Germany have been dominating the EU with their particular brand of political philosophies and ignoring other smaller countries input. Their belief in interventionism, manipulation of markets and unremitting bureaucratic controls have led to economic stagnation. Although one swallow does not a summer make, perhaps this is a shaft of light. There is also a rift developing between France and the ECB. A little know clause in an EU treaty allows member states to take back from the ECB the economic control of their economies. It's called the "nuclear option" and would have the potential of shaking the bank and the EU commission to their boot straps. It's just a question if Sarkozy has the balls and political support to do it. If the Euro continues to rise unchecked by the ECB then watch this space.

[quote user="Gluestick"] Unless one lives in a trailerpark! [/quote] You have something there Gluey, perhaps you are a capitalist after all.[:)] Trailer parks for the retired in Spain. It's becoming a lucrative epidemic in the southern coastal regions. Relatively small outlay and huge returns from captive clients. As a bonus, currently any temporary accommodation in Spain does not require planning consent. Just a nod from the Maire. [;-)] I once had a case of Latour 61. I drank the lot between 1979 and 1982. Such good years.

I suspect  ' I entirely agree' is Ian in disguise, smoldering over his deleted post.[:D] Your suggestions for investment in wine are sort of ok but I would rather think long term and invest in wonderful 2005 Samur or Chinon. Then sup the lot during the year I expire. Perfect end.[:D]

[quote user="Bones"] My advice would be to market your UK house at the projected  price for the end of 2008, let's say 10% lower than it 's 'worth' now. Bank the cash, assuming there is any. Rent in France. When the exchange rate improves (if it does) transfer the money over and maybe buy in France. If, on the other hand, you don't fancy France as a long term bet after renting then you can go back to Blighty and buy your old house back cheap at auction after the crash. Sorted!  [8-)][/quote] Bones that is the best advice I have read so far.  Here are more difficulties likely to have negative effects on all property markets. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/the-next-credit-tidal-wave-785622.html

I have been contributing to another thread which related to this subject. It seems to have been removed by the mods. If the mods happen to read this post I would like to point out that I believe Ian who originally posted the thread had a valid analysis worthy of discussion. I did not agree with him and I have no idea if he simply wanted to advertise his house for sale. Frankly I don’t care. Cynicism is an easy and lazy way to comment when you have nothing to say. My point is that discussion and debate should be free and unfettered. Within obvious bounds of decency, legality and legibility of understanding. I do not believe it’s the job of mods to censor debate.

All very worthy stuff but how does this help our poster RAV4 decide if they should buy in France now or wait? With our obvious collective experience we should be able to offer some decent advice. Mine is to suggest they wait, watch and move when market conditions change more to their favour. That should not be too long. Rav4 would be interested in your diverse opinions.

[quote user="Ian"] Predicting future currency movements is difficult (near impossible) so deciding whether buying now is better than leaving it 6 months is equally difficult. [/quote] I believe you can predict currency movements to a certain extent Ian. In doing so it's important to look back at Sterling’s historical trends against European currencies. You will find a pattern there. The present falls seem to have settled around a trading band of 1.32 and a high of 1.345. That is 8.65 FF to 8.82FF. Very low historically but not without precedent. In 1992 Sterling fell to 7.20FF! I think barring major economic calamities in UK it is unlikely Sterling will fall out of this band. In other words it's reached its natural level for the current market conditions. So as market conditions improve and interests rates start to rise to combat inflation already in the system so Sterling should also rise. Economic growth in the Eurozone is slowing and interest rates should fall weakening the Euro. So buy as Sterling returns to previous levels and when house prices have bottomed out. Our poster would be well advised to consider these unemotional aspects to purchase in France if he wants to save himself several thousand pounds. I agree with your sentiments about ‘home and happiness’. However those things are just as well enjoyable with a few quid left in the bank.  

The problems for the property market in Spain are many. They range from sub-prime fall out, usual market trends and over capacity, previous easy credit and the fact that massive new building projects along the coastal strips have stalled and are being sold off by developers at prices way below those of the resale market. Spanish banks who have lent massively to fund these projects are getting very nervous. In France there is a glut of building land and easy planning permits in most regions. New build properties can be bought at a price way below the cost of doing up an old wreck. As Gluestick correctly states these properties are very desirable to French buyers because in part they are affordable. Old properties are cheap to buy but prohibitively expensive to restore in comparison to new build. However those with the skills, energy and time to restore an old house themselves have an advantage. I agree the French market is well placed in comparison to UK. Here much pain and blood on the carpet awaits those owners who bought at the top of the market and over borrowed. This market in my opinion has a long way yet to fall. We are now entering a medium term period where houses are simply somewhere to live and not a means of making money. That should allow those currently unable to get a foothold on the property ladder a chance. Then long term the whole inflationary process will start again. 

The sub-prime debacle has affected the property market almost everywhere. If you are a cash buyer, by that I mean no property to sell, not needing finance and can move quickly the cards are all in your favour.  Many property owners are in distress and will slash the price drastically to get a sale. My advice is to wait a few months longer. I expect Sterling to eventually recover slightly and house prices to collapse further. I have just returned from Spain and did some market research. The market there is wobbling on the edge of a cliff and the prospects dire as folks try to get out from under. Professionals of course have the brave sales face on. Most of them are paddling like crazy under the water line. It’s not that bad in France yet but it isn’t good either. Do not listen to Agents do your own research both on line and in the country talking to sellers and buyers. There are good bargains to be had but you need to do the leg work first.

I recently paid into my French bank account a cheque in Euros issued by a Spanish bank. I have been doing this for quite some time off and on and putting up with the usual 2- 3 weeks delay involved. However I have started to be charged for this service at quite a high rate this time about 4.2% of the cheque face value. Complaints to my bank get the usual stone wall treatment. So I have complained to the European Commission because I had previously believed these charges were unlawful. Apologies for the unclickable links and the dogey translation. Here for what it's worth is their reply:- The EU is currently undertaking a number of initiatives in order to create a single payment area for the euro currency. Bank charges are lawful, even in respect of relatively small amounts. However, there is in place legislation on the equality of charges within the EU, regulation 2560/2001, which is available at the following website: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2001:344:0013:0016:EN:PDF and further explained at the following website: http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/l33223.htm These rules provide, in outline, that the charges for electronic cross-border payments should be the same as the equivalent national payment. However, this regulation does not extend to promoting equality in the charges for payments made by cheque. Nevertheless, these rules do provide that the bank should make the charges, even those in respect of cheques, clear. Therefore the rules promote the transparency in the charges (and you should have been informed of the possibility and size of the charge) and also promotes the use of electronic money transfers. If you did not get information as to the likely charges you should complain to your bank and, if that fails, you should contact the European Consumer Centre network, which may assist you further: http://www.euroinfo-kehl.eu/

For once I find myself in agreement with you Gluestick.  [:(]

This article is a well balanced overview of the current political landscape surrounding the President. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/nicolas-sarkozy-the-problem-with-the-president-780974.html

I think they deserve each other. 'Birds of a Feather' etc. The divorce the book the tabloid articles are inevitable and so yawningly predictable. He has 4 years left and the real question is will he implode before that? I used to believe he might actually provide the change France needs. What we actually have is an egotist, wallowing in power, bent on self gratification and supported by folks of a similar ilk.

[quote user="J.R."] I would love to just go on line to check my balance but to pay for a service that (should) save them time and money........ [/quote] Some French banks offer that service free of charge. La Poste for example.

Well perhaps I should shift my investments to Nationwide and wait to profit from their benevolence. Apologies if I sound sceptical. Mutuel societies also need to compete for our money in the market place and give the same if not better returns. How is that achieved? Lower costs, lower share holder dividends, lower growth, lower investment returns, lower risk. Service over profit. Offering a choice and an alternative. Very admirable socialist concept which on second thoughts is not for me. Died in the wool capitalist - absolutely.[6] Coops: I have no doubt Nationwide has the edge over RBS for the reasons above but not the DSS system of exchange through Citibank.

[quote user="cooperlola"] Hmm.  17th Jan - Cash got direct from hole in wall using Nationwide debit card (pension paid to UK direct).  Rate : 1.322.  Pension transferred direct to French bank account from my pension provider (whose bank is RBS) Rate 1.312. Go figure.... [/quote] Even that comparison does not reflect the true position because presumably you did these transactions at different times on the same day. Rates fluctuate minute by minute. You would need to do a spread sheet over say 6 months to discover which gave true value for money. Your pension can be transferred at one rate at the start of the month and half way through Sterling dives leaving you with a loss against the remainder of your transactions. This could also work the otherway of course but it seems an unnecessary risk to me. You can be sure Nationwide will have the real advantage somewhere. They don't run a business for your benefit despite the ads to the contrary. 

State pensions are changed in bulk by Citibank Ireland and are done at the best 'commercial rate' of the day.(close to wholesale). Your Nationwide account will be changed at a lower 'retail' rate, all be it that it might be slighty better than normal. Although you may think there is no fee involved it's hidden in the retail rate you receive. If you do this on a regular basis rather than have Euros on tap in France, over say a year it will cost.

Absolutely Allan. All financial institutions have a practice of 'hiding' any evidence of how they rip you off in exchange rate transactions. For example if you use a French credit card in UK. The rate your bank/Visa/MasterCard applies the transaction to your account often bears no relationship to the money market rate; you can apply that rule in almost any other transfer of money. Swift interbank transactions are particularly bad. With poor rates and huge fees. Of course money is just a commodity like everything else. There is a wholesale and retail price but trying to establish what that is when you move money is sometimes difficult. However shopping around as always saves a bundle.  

[quote user="Cathy"]  in France, it's the neighbours? [/quote] That's true in the countryside but in the cities the paid informers are alive and well and doing nicely, as in UK. How else would MI5/6 operate. The CID are also dependant on community intelligence and gossip. It's just the way of the world. People like to snoop and if they can earn from it so much the better. It's not an attractive human activity. 

I should have given a better explanation but as always you use a term in a post and end up having to further explain. Spot Market: The spot market or cash market is a commodities or securities market in which goods are sold for cash and delivered immediately. Contracts bought and sold on these markets are immediately effective. Spot markets can operate wherever the infrastructure exists to conduct the transaction. The spot market for most securities exists primarily on the internet. Spot Forex: The spot foreign exchange market has a 2 day delivery date, originally due to the time it would take to move cash from one bank to another.

[quote user="Anton Redman"]  post modernist irony ? [/quote] Well we all have differing opinions and irony is as good as any. Remember I used the 'R' word. Recessions have degrees of severity but I don't believe the US/Europe is heading there. However if it does expect a massive fall in demand. So unless oil producers turn off the taps the price will fall steadily. 

You must decide for yourself Arms but yes short oil, 'puts' if you prefer. I don't really want to get into giving financial advice here but yes the London market has already seen a return today. Panic overdone.

Go short and wait for the dead cat bounce. Just a matter of time. Oil will fall to 50 dollars if the USA hits recession. I agree with the Fed. slow growth not recession. The Bears are talking down the market. Bulls have all run for cover but will return and see them off. I'm cool.[8-|]

You should be given a choice how you want to complete these forms. Collect from the Mairie and fill it in yourself with their help. Have a visit from a functionaire and have them fill it in during an interview or have it sent for you to complete yourself. Non compliance of the rules will attract sanction. I chose a visit and a very friendly lady called and did it for us. The most intrusive question was how many bathrooms! Or did you go to university?[geek]   

[quote user="Georgina"] I paid a German euro cheque into our business account, it took weeks to clear and they charged about E38 - as a foreign cheque my nice bank manager told me. Georgina [/quote] They charged you incorrectly, however there is always a long delay of about 2-3 weeks before you will see a credit. Challenge them and demand a refund. If they don't pay change your bank letting them know why. I often question my account charges and in almost every case the money is put back.