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Hard Brexit - You WILL need a CDS


Cathar Tours

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Thanks for that I shall tell my father he is a complete prat and can throw his CDS in the bin because The Connexion says he doesn't need one. After all it's been so right over the years. Anyone remember the French number plates that they got totally wrong. My father laughed for weeks over that one and there have, he tells me, been a few since then.
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1) "the law draws attention to the automatic effects of a no-deal should the

French government not act to put other measures in place. These effects

include the fact that British residents in France would lose their

current legal residency status – which is based on them being EU

citizens – and become third country (non-EU) citizens. They would

therefore be in an ‘irregular’ situation after Brexit due to not having

the usual visas and third country citizen residency cards that such

residents require."

2) Europe Minister Nathalie Loiseau when she said she wished to maintain

Britons’ rights in France along the lines of what was agreed in the

draft withdrawal agreement – but on condition that the UK acts similarly

towards the French in the UK.

What I said then ...

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Eurotrash wrote:

Coming back to YCCMB's question, you can probably sum it up by saying that left to its own devices the UK will push the gig economy further and further, whilst the EU will do all it can to limit it. Whether that's good or bad, depends on whether or not you aspire to being a clickworker or an uber driver.

However, a huge number of the foreign nationals who have moved to the UK did so because it's so easy to start your own business here, and to become successful without suddenly discovering that you owe everything you've made plus a bit more to the authorities. Among the diverse group of friends of my two kids, I'd say over half are self-employed, most are running quite successful small businesses and at least one is, at 28, a multi millionaire. If you compare the simplicity of setting up and running a business in the UK with France, it becomes clear what attracts so many young French people to move here.

But that whole argument does digress a bit from my real point, which rather addressed the question about goods and manufacturing. I can't envisage a scenario where either side suddenly lets established standards slip just because they can, in terms of the goods they export/import. Why would they?

Years ago I was involved in selling raw materials to the food and cosmetic industries. The exact same product would be manufactured to slightly different standards depending on whether it had to conform to the US FDA standards or European standards, because the FDA required a test sample from every batch manufactured to be sent to them and tested, after which a certificate was issued and a copy supplied with each batch sold. The FDA quality material would be more likely to end up in Europe than in the USA, but it would then be added to products manufactured in Europe, but destined for sale in either Europe or the USA, saving the manufacturers from having two different formulations for the same product. I can't see why manufacturers would want to make life any more difficult for themselves going forward.

ETA: Andy..I hadn't seen your post as I was typing, but the above seems to address at least one area with which I'm familiar where food standards are, in fact, more stringent in the USA. The additives to which I refer were (and still are) widely used in the food industry...
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Betty

there are some area where the FDA standards are at least as good as those in Europe if not better. There are others where they are questionable.

Genetic modification

Chlorine bleaching of meat

Pesticide levels

Hormone usage

There are always standards and some are better than others.

As a student I worked in a canning factory and on day one my job was to shovel new potatoes out of a vat of peeled new potatoes in water with a bucket with holes drilled in the bottom to let the water out. The potatoes were poured onto a short conveyor where 12 women were inspecting and sorting the potatoes. Every potato with an eye, a bit of damage, a little bit of green, indeed any blemish at all was hoisted out and into a reject bin. After lunch the foreman came around and said, "right that's the Marks and Spencers order done. You lot come with me." Where upon 9 of the women were taken elsewhere. All of the rejected spuds went back into my vat, and second time around 3 women were sorting out the real crap,

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I think that could be said of anything, though, Andy. Let's face it, there have been a number of well publicised scandals over recent years where all sorts of questionable things have gone on in the food chain, regardless of standards, legislation and controls.

I don't disagree with your comment, but remain to be convinced that the UK is going to be prepared to let its standards slip simply in order to do business with countries outside the EU. If it is common practice today for exporters to sell goods abroad which confirm to the standards of the country they're selling to, why should that situation change or be changed?

By the way, according to DEFRA statistics, the U.K. is over 75% self sufficient in chicken production, and the vast majority of the imported chicken comes from the Netherlands and Poland. If a trade deal is struck with the USA, I'd struggle to understand why we'd suddenly be angling to buy chlorine washed chicken.. Or indeed any chicken. Unless the Netherlands no longer wishes to do business with the U.K. after Brexit. And potentially, if a deal was to be struck with the USA, I'd imagine that their exports to the UK would be expected to conform to whatever standards the UK put in place. The idea that the UK would automatically change its standards (particularly to inferior ones) to appease third party countries seems to be one which has been bandied about without any real evidence that it will happen. I'm hoping nobody suggests we will be forced to start buying left hand drive cars or electrical goods that don't work on our power supply just to appease other countries and get a trade deal.

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I can understand both points of view over whether one should go for a CDS sooner rather than later.

For me though its quite simple. I’d rather be forced to have a public dance with Theresa May (and my skills in that area have been described as ‘less than perfect’) than commence the nauseating, lengthy, and tedious process of application with the time-wasters at Nimes. I had 10 months of them over my Driving Licence Exchange.

Yes, I know. Its quite simple where you are. But it won’t be here!

I’ll just wait until the time comes. No rush. In the meantime, I’ll buy a clapped-out white van, hide my halfway decent car, and pretend that the ‘Anglais’ isn’t here anymore when the Gendarmerie come to take us away.

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EU countries could ( stress could) be faced with WTO import tariffs - so imported EU food stuffs become more expensive and unattainable to the poor. So NL and other EU supplies might be economically cut off. To be replaced by what?

If the US then this report might be important:

http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10

Quote:

However, Trump's administration says the UK must abandon "unjustified" food standards before a … deal....can be agreed.
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An administration that just might not be around forever...maybe not even until the time the UK actually leaves the E.U. They could just be getting a tiny bit ahead of themselves...

Not to mention the fact that before any deal is reached there must be negotiation. And not everything has to be done on US terms.

As I said, the UK is already 75% self sufficient in poultry.
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My thoughts are that all things being equal, the UK will keep up and maybe even raise standards. I get the impression that consumer protection is pretty high on the agenda, certainly the UK has a good record in animal welfare for instance.

But it depends what concessions if any it has to make in order to get trade deals. And there, I haven't a clue how hard trade deal negotiations are, typically. Some people are confident in the UK's ability to get good deals and some aren't. I can imagine there will indeed be pressure on the UK by countries that want to turn it into a convenient dumping ground. so I guess we just have to trust the UK to stand firm. I'm sure that if there is a perceived risk of letting substandard goods in there will be lobbying and pressure on the government from that side too. So overall I don't see it as an imminent danger but I do see it as a potential danger if the UK finds its back against the wall in finding trading partners, hopefully this won't happen but remains to be seen.

Re the ease of doing business in the UK, I realise it's not the question here but for me it's an issue. I have to admit I find something a little obscene about an economic model that makes it so easy for an individual to get immensely rich but doesn't look after society as a whole. I can see the attraction and you can't blame people for taking advantage of the opportunities, but I don't find it a healthy system or society that encourages and rewards amassing personal wealth, to that extent.
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Talking of trade deals I have been wondering what happens with regards to all those now 40 odd trade deals the EU has around the world? Because the deal is between these countries and the EU and the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU logically it would seem that the UK can longer benefit from those deals and will have to negotiate separate deals. This is something I don't know the answer to because whenever has politics and trade deals been logical?

We talked about scaremongering earlier and here is another thing I know to be correct. The Ford plant at Dagenham will be closing and some Remainers (which is what I am) have said this is to do with Brexit. Well actually it isn't. The R&D facility in Europe with regards to diesel engines is also being wound down. This is because diesel engines sales have dropped considerably across Europe and the world for personal transport (cars, vans and pickups). Dagenham has already cut production by 60% and further cuts will take place over the next 5 years till it ceases to exist.
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"Talking of trade deals I have been wondering what happens with regards to all those now 40 odd trade deals the EU has around the world? Because the deal is between these countries and the EU and the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU logically it would seem that the UK can longer benefit from those deals and will have to negotiate separate deals. This is something I don't know the answer to because whenever has politics and trade deals been logical? "

There has in fact been a lot of ink used on this issue. Yes, all these trade deals end with Brexit. The UK is hoping to simply roll them over doing copy/paste jobs. It seems unlikely to me that the countries involved will agree the same terms with one small country as it had in place with a large trading block, surely they'll see it as a good opportunity to readjust the balance, but hey ho there you go.

Seems bizarre to me that the UK wants to leave the EU in order to be able to negotiate its own trade with the world, and its first reaction is to say "Let's ask if we can keep using the trade deal we have at the moment," but as you say when did logic matter.
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[quote user="You can call me Betty or Queenie if you prefer"]Cathar Tours said

So if a UK company continues to sell to the EU and keeps EU standards which it currently does then there is no problem. [/quote]

Not quite. The problem is after Brexit that UK company will no longer be able to prove it is keeping EU standards as the UK supervisory system will no longer be under EU law and not recognised. No paper to prove it=not compliant, has to be checked before entering the EU.

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[quote user="Jako"]
[quote user="You can call me Betty or Queenie if you prefer"]Cathar Tours said

So if a UK company continues to sell to the EU and keeps EU standards which it currently does then there is no problem. [/quote]

Not quite. The problem is after Brexit that UK company will no longer be able to prove it is keeping EU standards as the UK supervisory system will no longer be under EU law and not recognised. No paper to prove it=not compliant, has to be checked before entering the EU.

[/quote]

I was about to mention that myself, as our son is an engineer responsible for inspecting and approving standards of production and control with a major certifying organisation, and I also worked in a similar role.

EDIT:  ADD "In the absence of a withdrawal agreement covering certification of goods and services,"

It could take some time before EU legislation is put into effect for UK certifying bodies to be to recognised once they become non-EU entities.

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ET - So in reality and if they follow logic the first ten years will be getting the UK back to where it currently is with regards to trade deals it has lost. Obviously even with a Brexit trade agreement with the EU there is no automatic right to continue to trade with these countries, only with the EU member states. Afterwards they can then move on to make trade deals with other countries.

The thing with politicians, apart from lying through their back teeth, is they will no doubt claim that negotiating deals with countries that it lost by leaving the EU will be classed as new trade deals covered by the claim it's a big world and the UK will be free to trade with whomever it wants. Other than that I don't exactly see countries queuing at the door, with the exception of the US, saying once you have left we will do a deal with you. I know some have expressed a passing interest but then words are cheap.

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I'm quite enjoying this thread. It's so full of worst case scenarios that, if extrapolated out to the population as a whole, somewhere down the line there will hopefully be an immense sigh of relief when the whole world doesn't implode immediately.

As I said earlier, it's highly likely that we will (at least for the foreseeable future) live through a "Y2K" moment, where the predicted apocalypse doesn't happen.

Yes, I'm quite sure there will be shed loads of problems. I'm not sure they'll necessarily be of the magnitude predicted.

As I also said earlier, the streets aren't necessarily paved with gold and the political climate is not a whole lot rosier elsewhere in Europe. It does seem from afar that Macron and Merkel are quite happy when the focus is on May and the total clusterf*** she's having to deal with, because it distracts attention from their own uncomfortable domestic issues.

Eurotrash: I can see your point about it being easy to start a business in the UK, but I'd dispute the idea that it allows all that many people to become vastly rich at the expense of others. Many of the younger people I know through my kids have started small businesses (lots doing market trading, for example, others in various areas of the arts) and have chosen that route not for the financial gain but for the quality of life they can have, for the pleasure of making a living from something they enjoy, and the flexibility of being able to have a go at doing different things. Many of them prize that satisfaction far more highly than pure financial gain, and I think it's healthy that a climate exists where they can make that choice. And, to be honest, I see a greater deal of altruism and collaboration among and between them than I'd ever expect to see if they were all employees. I find that heartening.
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Jako wrote:

Not quite. The problem is after Brexit that UK company will no longer be able to prove it is keeping EU standards as the UK supervisory system will no longer be under EU law and not recognised. No paper to prove it=not compliant, has to be checked before entering the EU.

I think that scenario will wholly depend on the product and the industry concerned. And on the degree of need. There will be a hiatus, for sure, but very often it's a case of "can you produce X to this standard?" "Yes" "OK! Send us a sample" and once the sample is approved, life goes on. That's how trade generally works, and I doubt very much that companies that need, or want to buy from the UK (and indeed have been doing so for years) will suddenly decide that the product has become inferior overnight. Much as I doubt that UK manufacturers will have a collective sigh and shout "Hooray, we can start producing crap now"

Of course, none of the above will obviate the need for customs controls...or will it? Let's assume there'll be a customs Armageddon as well, cos it won't do any of us any good at all to get too optimistic or cheerful ??
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[quote user="woolybanana"]500,000 on the streets of. London today demanding a final say. But will the government take any notice?[/quote]

They better or there will be war on the streets of London.

According to demographics, most of those who voted out are now dead. Miserable gîtes. RIP.

So yes, like I said earlier. Don't rush to get a CDS.

The UK will remain in the EU like it should do.

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Nathalie Loiseau, French Foreign Minister, on Andrew Marr this morning:  said exactly what has been discussed here.  We want (sic) all British citizens living and working in France to remain.  They will have all existing rights as they do now BUT on condition that that is reciprocated by the UK to all French citizens in their country.

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