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The pound is on the brink


Chancer

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[quote user="Braco"]My bet is that it will hit 1.25 by April 2100.[/quote]

There are some financial pundits predicting this before the end of September. We will just have to wait and see who is right.

Baz

 

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1.1548 was the high water mark so far today.

For those who are trying hard to integrate, you must remember that that is FFR 7.57.

Over the past 30 odd years the £ has fluctuated between about FFR 14 at its absolute high point to FFR 6.24 at its absolute low point (31.12.2008).

For most of the time it has tended to meander around the FFR 10 level (€ 1.52). 10.69 was the value on the first day of the Euro.

No doubt the recession will be considerably worse in the UK than in most of the Eurozone (albeit Spain and Ireland look very dodgy and Austria as well if its banks' East European loans turn bad), so presumably Sterling will bounce around well below that €1.50 level but something in the order of 1.25 (or more) should appear before too long (other things being equal).

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I don't understand this obsession with the exchange rate between the pound and the Euro.

I live in France which is in the Eurozone.

My Pension is French and in Euros.

I have a Health cover based on the fact that I have contributed to the French system over a long time.

Those who are victims of the media campaigns to buy in France (Estate agencies the most guilty in this regard) and who thought they were onto a good thing have only themselves to blame for their naiveté

 

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[quote user="NormanH"]I don't understand this obsession with the exchange rate between the pound and the Euro.

I live in France which is in the Eurozone.

My Pension is French and in Euros.

I have a Health cover based on the fact that I have contributed to the French system over a long time.[/quote]

Bully for you Norman but I think you're here at least in a minority of one [:P]

If you don't understand why the rest of us are interested in it then you must be simple.

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[quote user="NormanH"]I don't understand this obsession with the exchange rate between the pound and the Euro.
I live in France which is in the Eurozone.
My Pension is French and in Euros.
I have a Health cover based on the fact that I have contributed to the French system over a long time.

Those who are victims of the media campaigns to buy in France (Estate agencies the most guilty in this regard) and who thought they were onto a good thing have only themselves to blame for their naiveté
 
[/quote]

Bully for you. There are some of us that very much would like to retire like you one day and live the life watching the daisies but unfortunately have to make a crust in the UK and perhaps because of the crashing pound have had dreams shattered. Just wish we had the luxury of doing as you apparently did of working and contributing in France and receiving a pension in Euros.

Lucky you, very happy for you.

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[quote user="NormanH"]I don't understand this obsession with the exchange rate between the pound and the Euro.

I live in France which is in the Eurozone.

My Pension is French and in Euros.

I have a Health cover based on the fact that I have contributed to the French system over a long time.

Those who are victims of the media campaigns to buy in France (Estate agencies the most guilty in this regard) and who thought they were onto a good thing have only themselves to blame for their naiveté

 

[/quote]

NormanH,

I am happy for you, as no doubt many other British immigrants are, however your understanding of ''obsession with the exchange rate'' is odd to say the least. There are no doubt a considerable number of immigrants whose income is Sterling based, they are, understandably (IMO) concerned about the exchange rate. As no doubt you would be if you were in their position. The fact that you are not is good for you.

Your attitude is not only not sympathetic but is actually 'pathetic' and is insulting to those who are more recent arrivals in France than you.

ps. I am not one of those affected because I am paid in Euros (quite a lot of them) and am not a resident of France, only having a residence secondaire, I do however have some sympathy for those who are affected by the poor exchange rate, irrespective of how naive (or not) theymay have been. I believe its called ''consideration for those less well off than oneself''

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I want to be like Norman! That is to say have an income (comfortable or otherwise) in Euros, and within the next year or so it will commence when I start to get a rental income from the flats that I am building with my own (free) labour and my rapidly diminishing and until recently, depreciating, Sterling savings.

So for the interim I continue with my obssession with the exchange rate as illustrated by my starting this thread, however once I have a Euro income I will transform and start rubbing salt into the wound of all you naive losers [:D][:D][:P]

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Those who are victims of the media campaigns to buy in France (Estate agencies the most guilty in this regard) and who thought they were onto a good thing have only themselves to blame for their naiveté

Whether people were naive or not, without them I doubt this forum would exist [:)]

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NormanH is perhaps being a bit harsh, but he has a fair point.  If your income is determined in pounds, and you decide to move to a euro country, you are taking a large gamble: rather like betting on a horse.  If your horse loses...

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[quote user="ErnieY"][quote user="NormanH"]I don't understand this obsession with the exchange rate between the pound and the Euro.
I live in France which is in the Eurozone.
My Pension is French and in Euros.
I have a Health cover based on the fact that I have contributed to the French system over a long time.[/quote]
Bully for you Norman but I think you're here at least in a minority of one [:P]

If you don't understand why the rest of us are interested in it then you must be simple.
[/quote]

Snap, Ernie.[:D]

I do agree JR but even the most sceptical of us most probably couldn't have predicted the crash in the pound to this extent. We haven't moved to France and we have been planning for years and we have always been very conservative hence the reason for not making the move yet. However, we sadly never thought a few years back the world would be in the state that it is at the moment. Not the end of the world of course just the end of our plans for the time being.[:(]

I would imagine many here on the forum have been affected one way or another and find the glee that Norman expressed about those that are hurt to be very insensitive to be honest.

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but to think of it another way, those of us earning a crust in euros have for years suffered from a strong pound, or to put it yet another way, those of you getting your dosh in stirling have had it good for a very long time, you can't really complain too much I think.  It all goes in cycles anyway.

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The gentleman's expressed ethos is not only smug, but also, with respect, somewhat complacent.

That said many pensioners may well find their monthly payments diminishing: as both states are unable to afford to maintain payment levels as tax revenues fall: and private pension funds are squashed by market pressures, unwise investments and incompetence a la Equitable Life.

France is now technically in recession.

Germany is still suffering (and will do for some considerable time to come) the cost of re-integration. Angela Merkel is of course, of East German roots: and thus has driven - or tried to - her policies to try and benefit in many ways the extant socio-economic problems of the Eastern zone.

To the detriment of Germany.

German manufacturing exporters are suffering hugely from an over valued Euro. As are all Eurozone manufacturing exporters such as Airbus Industrie.

Spain is now rapidly suffering from its over-focus on leveraged speculative property development.

Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy are economic basket cases: Indeed, the re-emergence of the League of Lombardy as the Northern League, who seek to split Italy into the benefit dependant South and the engine of industrial North gain credibility day-by-day.

Belgium is riven by the escalating problems between les Flamands and les Wallons.

Holland has its own escalating political difficulties over Islamification.Which has taken the Dutch politicians focus off economic essentials and caused them to fight Gert Wilder's party

http://www.americandailyreview.com/home-features-articles-blog/2009/5/19/eurabia-has-a-capital-rotterdam.html

Luxembourg is of course dependant, economically on the good economic health of its EU fellows.

It has to be remembered, that the core reason for the Euro's rapid hardening, was distrust of the US dollar, as the Euro became a substitute - and temporary - reserve currency as a hedge from dollar exchange risk exposure.

For some considerable time, China has wanted to depart from the US dollar being not only the core reserve currency, but additionally and more critically the unit of value for most global exchanges of value flowing from international trade.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5325805/Chinas-yuan-set-to-usurp-US-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency.html

Unfortunately, Jean Claude Trichet and his gang have fallen into the trap of hailing currency strength as success: whereas, in this case the reality is the reverse. A currency value ought properly to reflect the underlying strength or weakness of its nation state's economy and fiscal affairs: or in the case of the synthetic aglomeration of the Eurozone, the strengths or weaknesses of the underlying meld of the participating nation states ditto.

Clearly currently it does not: and the ECB will soon be compelled to take significant corrective action.

I did forecast that the £ : € would in all probability settle at around £= €1.45 by July and have not changed that view.

Whilst indeed, Britain has serious economic and fiscal problems, then so do most other EU states: exchange values have not been helped at all by the negative outpourings of Mervyn King, whose utterances are perhaps driven by spite since NuLabour foolishly removed the elemental supervisory duties from the B of E and vested them in the flawed FSA; with the expected results.

Which just goes to show the hugely fickle and uncertain nature of forex markets generally.

 

 

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Many true words, I am especially aware of the position of Luxembourg but it has to be said that many more people are employed in manufacturing here than banking (report by stats office last month) and so like everyone else is suffering too.  Lux Banking are looking to far east to offer services for trading and settlement in European domestic markets and it is generally well received, even with some culture clashes.

£= €1.45 by July , I don't think so.  What will happen in the next 6 weeks or so to cause that?  1.15 maybe.

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[quote user="Pierre ZFP"]£= €1.45 by July , I don't think so.  What will happen in the next 6 weeks or so to cause that?  1.15 maybe.
[/quote]

Then the huge French trade with the UK is toast! Same with Germany and Italy et al.

8 weeks in fact, Pierre: could be August. Impossible to accurately forecast fickle forex markets on the nose.

The Strike on Tuesday in France is I fear only the beginning.

OECD have been very quiet about EU economic realities recently: as have most other analysts and commentators.

Chatting to a French chap I know on Monday (Top consultant with McKinsey & Co), he was adamant that the French don't want UK in the Euro mechanism at less than 1.40, since otherwise it would give us a huge competitive advantage and relative value disequillibrium.

A week is a long time in politics: and currency markets.....................

 

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NormanH,

a bit over the top, no?

I understand the obsession only too well.

I live in France which is in the Eurozone (and the UK ought to be too but I'm not expecting to see that anytime soon).

My state pension will be funded partly by UK and partly by FR, so will, presumably, be paid partly in £ and partly in € (although since I will be claiming it through the FR system, maybe it will all be paid in € - I don't know).

I have health cover based on the fact that I have contributed to the French system over a fairly short time.

However, all my wife's pensions and the rest of mine are (or will be) paid in £ (more than 90% of our income is in Sterling).

We were (and I suppose are) in the happy and unusual position for immigrants of being "well-off." Nonetheless, we ran the figures through various stress tests (20% variation in exchange rate might mean a few less Michelin meals and adding fewer and/or cheaper bottles to the cellar but 30% was serious and hit us just at the wrong time - more than 50% of our income arrives in January. Of course, -30%, especially because it was only temporary, is survivable, albeit with considerable economies).

Others will be in much more precarious positions, with much less margin for error (I doubt there are many others out there who can save over 15% of annual outgoings by placing a temporary halt on stocking their cellar). If there are any who didn't do any stress-testing of their incomes, well that wasn't very bright, but for those who did, but only allowed 10% (1.35) or 15% (1.275), they, like me, will be watching those exchange rates with more than just a passing interest.

What I'm really worried about, having seen how many pensioners got well and truly shafted in the 1970s, is the return of inflation. I think it inevitable that we will see that happen, what with QE* and almost all states borrowing at a level to make some individuals with huge debts look positively credit-shy. The big difference between an individual with substantial debts and a state that finds itself in the same position, is that the latter can fairly readily engineer "a bit" of inflation. I suspect that when the time comes, the BCE will look like the little Dutch boy (finger in hole in dyke) while the BoE will, at best, look like Cnut at high tide.

*QE "quantitive easing" - the technical term for "speed up the printing presses".

*** edit: I note the forum software won't permit the word for "a natural or artificial slope or wall to regulate water levels. It is usually earthen and often parallel to the course of a river or the coast."
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