Isn't the game really up on the Euro?

[just john]

Not a good press day for the Euro

 .telegraph. the-horrible-truth-starts-to-dawn-on-europes-leaders/

 .ft.Irish bail out weighs on Euro

 .bloomberg. euro-dominos-will-fall-until-currency-is-split-

  telegraph. austria-tells-greece-to-get-stuffed/

 

[mint]

None of it's helped me.  The exchange rate is 1.1772 (just looked)..........

Yes, yes, of course I'm a selfish so-and-so who has no regard for the suffering of others.  Just wish I wouldn't have to suffer from a vile exchange rate!

[just john]

How long have you got, they seem to think it's teetering, we can but hope[:)]

[mint]

Wish they'd hurry up then, JJ![:D]

Actually, not completely exposed as I have already bought half the money.....

[just john]

Problem is if the Leprechaun goes clog up then Alistair Darling's commitment to EU means the £ has to pay a % (10 billion-ish?) of the cost!!

[Thibault]

The Euro is a political construct - it will not be allowed to fail (certainly in the short term) because it is central to the idea of a United States of Europe.  Whether it will survive in the much longer-term is moot at this point.

[Jako]

The problems in the eurozone as a whole are ridiculously overblown by the markets for their own profit. Compared to the US and especially the UK the eurozone is financially sound. Ireland put its bank bailouts on their balance sheet. The UK has conveniently parked its bailouts off-balance and is very, very quit and secretive about it. UK banks have a 130 billion euro interest in Ireland, mostly RBS=UK taxpayer.

When the ECB buys 20 billion of Greek euro bonds, with money that is not created out of the blue, markets say the ECB goes 'nuclear'.

When the BoE buys 200 billion of UK gilts, with money that ís created out of the blue, markets say is is 'good' .

[pachapapa]

By the comments on the nascent Irish € EU crisis this morning by pseudo " Sun " readers it has a while to run.

http://www.bild.de/BILD/politik/wirtschaft/2010/11/17/irland-schuldenkrise/europa-bereitet-hilfsaktion-fuer-marodes-bankensystem-vor.html

[NormanH]

[quote user="just john "]How long have you got, they seem to think it's teetering, we can but hope[:)][/quote]

Why would anybody want the Euro to fail?

[just john]

Not about failing, but a return a realistic exchange rate that reflects the disparity of the countries linked and not the safe-haven of investors while the renminbi and dollar sort themselves out.

Only my opinion of course, but if it were not for this artificial currency most of the investment would be in the Mark, would it not? Would the investors in the Euro be investing in drachma, escudo, punts, pesata or Francs?

[just john]

More Teetering

 .independent. /hague-raises-doubt-about-euros-future-

Is it not long before Germany realise that they will be paying for EU pensions at the cost of their own.?

''Bonds and Cash is trash'' Peter Schiff

 bloomberg. irish-mourn-loss-of-sovereignty-as-cowen-scorned-before-german-bailout

[Jako]

The press agencies are currently blindly copying the press releases of the banks, analysts etc. that serve no other purpose than to move the market in whatever direction is profitable for them. There is not one independently written article left, each and every publication in whatever medium is nowadays only released for the purpose of market manipulation and not for information. Next on the list might be the dollar or the pound again and every time the mood swings, they 'earn' billions.

'Normal' people would call this 'illegal' and 'fraud', for bankers this is just 'work'.

[just john]

So reports of unrest in Angela's town are greatly exaggerated?

[baypond]

Jako, you are sadly suffering from delusion if you think this is all a wheeze by bankers to move the markets for their own profit. This is about countries being fiscally and monetarily loose for too many years on the back of the stronger core EU countires. Ireland and all are taking pain from too much profligacy, not from markets.

[Renaud]

I would like to thank Gordon Brown (words I never expected to write) for keeping Britain out of the Euro.

(Even if he only did it to annoy Tony Blair).

[Frederick]

  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/23/euro-crisis-dispatch-berlin-mark

Will the old money printing press be fired up again ?  .. Germany may be wishing it to happen soon ...

[mint]

[quote user="Renaud"](Even if he only did it to annoy Tony Blair).[/quote]

Renaud, don't you mean ESPECIALLY as he only did it to annoy Tony Blair?[;-)]

(PS also taking this opportunity to say hello to you and J[:)])

[just john]

Have you ever had an occasion when you thought, ''it'll never happen'', and then in slomo you start to see the signs that ''maybe it just might?''

With the fox in the hen house, are Belgium and Spain safe? Is this not contagion

 independent. /desperate-fight-to-save-the-euro-

[Tom]

[quote user="NormanH"][quote user="just john "]How long have you got, they seem to think it's teetering, we can but hope[:)][/quote]

Why would anybody want the Euro to fail?

[/quote]

Not the UK  banks. It wouldn't be pain free. They have huge euro exposure in Greece,Portugal, Spain and Italy. If the euro fails, those countries reverting to their old currencies would likely devalue.

The banks would face big losses and  have to be bailed out again.

[just john]

Belgium stirs the Pot

 telegraph. /Euro-collapse-possible-amid-deepening-divisions-over-bail-out.html

[Frederick]

Germany has had enough ... Court case re the legality of the bailouts now pendng according to the radio this morning .

http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2010/06/09/germanys-federal-constitutional-court-considers-unconstitutional-euro-bailout/

[nectarine]

If the euro did fail what would actually happen in practical terms? Would the countries revert to their original currencies. To the average person, what would happen to their savings in euros. And to us expats, would the pound and our UK savings become stronger or weaker?

Apologies if daft questions - I'm reading a lot of articles about this but can't find anything that said, if the euro actually DID fail, how it would affect people on a practical level.

[Jako]

What will happen to the Pound in the infinite more likely scenario where Scotland gets its independence,  leaves the Sterling zone fast and joins the Euro zone a few years later? [:P]

[Albert the InfoGipsy]

Assuming that Europe, and the Eurozone, learn from the problems of accepting some fairly dodgy economies over the last few years it might not be possible for an independent Scotland to join the Euro that easily.

If I remember rightly, the overall 'balance of payments' shows Scotland being subsidised by England & Wales. A lot is made of 'Scotland's oil', but it seems that extraction has passed its peak and at least 70% of exploitable reserves have already been extracted, so not something to build an economy on in the long term..

I'm an Englishman who has lived and worked in Glasgow and I can't see how a country comparable in many ways to Ireland can expect to thrive financially without external support.

[Gardian]

[quote user="nectarine"]If the euro did fail what would actually happen in practical terms? Would the countries revert to their original currencies. To the average person, what would happen to their savings in euros. And to us expats, would the pound and our UK savings become stronger or weaker? Apologies if daft questions - I'm reading a lot of articles about this but can't find anything that said, if the euro actually DID fail, how it would affect people on a practical level.[/quote]

I was hoping that by now, one or two with better knowledge would have replied, but nobody has, so here goes.

First, complete failure of the euro seems extremely unlikely, although with what has happened in the last few years, who can ever say "Never"? The strong economies will always seek to bale out the weaker ones in order to maintain some form of stability. For those having to be baled out, any punitive interest rates are going to be better than trying to raise the money elsewhere, e.g. Ireland.

However, if it ever did happen, then the national banks would presumably agree initial exchange rates. But that would just be the start. Put simply, the markets would decide - they'd take their view on where each currency should be and there would be quite rapid adjustment one way or the other, in some cases quite violent.

Even if my surmise is correct, it doesn't answer your question as to how UK sterling savings might be affected. One could only begin to guess at the point in time that it happened, depending on the general view as to whether the £ was under or over valued.