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UK - In or Out of the EU?


Gardian

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This whole subject has been gathering pace and its a concern for those of us resident here in France principally for the selfish reason of the risk to our healthcare being funded by the UK.  BTW, I think that its by no means certain that it would be forfeited, but that's another debate and we won't know for some time.

Anyway, I say to myself "The UK would be mad to come out of the EU with all the trade benefits that membership conveys".

Then I find myself asking what those benefits actually are?  Is a UK Company exporting to EU countries suddenly going to be unable to trade with its customers there?  Are exports suddenly going to become more expensive and / or less competitive?  I somehow doubt it.

So what is the practical downside?  If there really are significant trade disadvantages, then the 'No' camp really does need to start articulating them, rather than just saying "It won't be good". 

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Companies like Nissan and Honda would probably move their manufacturing base to Europe. Nissan particularly is tied up with Renault and the French would just love to get the manufacturing capacity to France.

I suspect that London as a financial centre would suffer to the benefit of Frankfurt

You can be sure the trade terms and contidions with Europe would deterioriate as countries like France tried to use British weakness to take their markets.
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We are in for keeps IMO.... The EU can not allow a big player like the UK to walk away.. I think changes will take place to ensure we are happy to stay and keep paying in  . France takes the biggest share out and I think would worry if it was not being put in to take so will not stand in the way of the changes  the  UK will be asking for . The free movement rule will have to be changed as no country can accept a population growth the size of Bristol every five years and I think that will be the main one up for discussion .

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The free movement rule will have to be changed as no country can accept a

population growth the size of Bristol every five years and I think that

will be the main one up for discussion .

There was a typical Murdoch press scare story about this is Friday's Times saying in a front page headline

Population surge in Britain is the fastest in EU

Immigration and increased birthrate to blame [:D] as if it was a crime..

In the actual figures less than half was from immigration and no account seems to have been taken of greater longevity as a factor..

As often I like Brassens with the refrain

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

(the happy imbeciles who just happened to be born somewhere or other)

La Ballade Des Gens Qui Sont Nés Quelque Part

C'est vrai qu'ils sont plaisants tous ces petits villages

Tous ces bourgs, ces hameaux, ces lieux-dits, ces cités

Avec leurs châteaux forts, leurs églises, leurs plages

Ils n'ont qu'un seul point faible et c'est être habités

Et c'est être habités par des gens qui regardent

Le reste avec mépris du haut de leurs remparts

La race des chauvins, des porteurs de cocardes

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

Maudits soient ces enfants de leur mère patrie

Empalés une fois pour toutes sur leur clocher

Qui vous montrent leurs tours leurs musées leur mairie

Vous font voir du pays natal jusqu'à loucher

Qu'ils sortent de Paris ou de Rome ou de Sète

Ou du diable vauvert ou de Zanzibar

Ou même de Montcuq il s'en flattent mazette

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

Le sable dans lequel douillettes leurs autruches

Enfouissent la tête on trouve pas plus fin

Quand à l'air qu'ils emploient pour gonfler leurs baudruches

Leurs bulles de savon c'est du souffle divin

Et petit à petit les voilà qui se montent

Le cou jusqu'à penser que le crottin fait par

Les chevaux même en bois rend jaloux tout le monde

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

C'est pas un lieu commun celui de leur connaissance

Ils plaignent de tout coeur les malchanceux

Les petits maladroits qui n'eurent pas la présence

La présence d'esprit de voir le jour chez eux

Quand sonne le tocsin sur leur bonheur précaire

Contre les étrangers tous plus ou moins barbares

Ils sortent de leur trou pour mourir à la guerre

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

Mon Dieu qu'il ferait bon sur la terre des hommes

Si on y rencontrait cette race incongrue

Cette race importune et qui partout foisonne

La race des gens du terroir des gens du cru

Que la vie serait belle en toutes circonstances

Si vous n'aviez tiré du néant tous ces jobards

Preuve peut-être bien de votre inexistence

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

Les imbéciles heureux qui sont nés quelque part

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Would Nissan relocate to France?

Very high productivity, excellent labour relations in the UK or move to France with all its labour problems and lower productivity. Renault might be a French based company but do they really want to be less economic? Plus, does Renault produce all cars in France?
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[quote user="PaulT"]Would Nissan relocate to France? Very high productivity, excellent labour relations in the UK or move to France with all its labour problems and lower productivity. Renault might be a French based company but do they really want to be less economic? Plus, does Renault produce all cars in France?[/quote]

One of them, can't remember which, was mentioned in the news several months back. They aleady have a factory in Spain that poduces parts for both construction and spares. Aparently the site is only 20% utilised at present and there is plenty of space to build one or two production lines. The Spanish, in the current economic and employment circumstances there, would be more than happy to have their cars built in Spain.

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Nissan have already publicly announced that if the UK left the EU, they would leave the UK.

Who would follow? Especially if the EU imposed an import tariff on UK cars.

BMW? Honda - probably. Then would Redcar steel works survive?? and what then for Air Products?? Suddenly the dominoes begin to topple.
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Businesses wouldn't be able to claim the VAT back from other EU countries. UK companies importing from the EU would have to pay VAT in which ever EU country they buy the goods and of course VAT would also be charged at PoS in the UK. There would be an import tariff on many UK goods entering the EU making them more expensive there.
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[quote user="Quillan"]Businesses wouldn't be able to claim the VAT back from other EU countries. UK companies importing from the EU would have to pay VAT in which ever EU country they buy the goods and of course VAT would also be charged at PoS in the UK. There would be an import tariff on many UK goods entering the EU making them more expensive there.[/quote]

 Makes me laugh you all talk as though the UK only exports to the EU and doesn't import any thing at all from the EU. Plus I always thought that VAT was already charged at point of sale in the UK, if not I've been ripped off rotten for years? Any way if we don't get a better deal then the residents of the UK will vote in or out, it will be our decision.

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[quote user="Quillan"]Businesses wouldn't be able to claim the VAT back from other EU countries. UK companies importing from the EU would have to pay VAT in which ever EU country they buy the goods and of course VAT would also be charged at PoS in the UK. There would be an import tariff on many UK goods entering the EU making them more expensive there.[/quote]

So, something that is tangible.

Do you see my point?  The 'No' lobby needs to start to educate the British public over what (financially) an exit from the EU would mean, rather than just saying that it isn't a very good idea.

 

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[quote user="NickP"][quote user="Quillan"]Businesses wouldn't be able to claim the VAT back from other EU countries. UK companies importing from the EU would have to pay VAT in which ever EU country they buy the goods and of course VAT would also be charged at PoS in the UK. There would be an import tariff on many UK goods entering the EU making them more expensive there.[/quote]

 Makes me laugh you all talk as though the UK only exports to the EU and doesn't import any thing at all from the EU. Plus I always thought that VAT was already charged at point of sale in the UK, if not I've been ripped off rotten for years? Any way if we don't get a better deal then the residents of the UK will vote in or out, it will be our decision.

[/quote]

According to this the UK trades less and less with the EU now and is set do better elsewhere

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100171677/no-prime-minister-the-eu-is-becoming-less-economically-important-by-the-hour/

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I'm not going to get het up about this. What is the point.

As all our personal income comes from France, then should we move back to France if this happened, and would we be allowed to?

But when I compare, then when my grandparents were young, there was a world war. When my parents were young, there was another world war.

We are  very 'comfy' these days in comparison. What will be, will be. There is a lot I can get really annoyed about, but not this. 

Anyway, if Scotland vote to leave the UK, then it'll probably all start getting very messy anyway. Maybe we have interesting times ahead![Www]

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[quote user="NickP"][quote user="Quillan"]Businesses wouldn't be able to claim the VAT back from other EU countries. UK companies importing from the EU would have to pay VAT in which ever EU country they buy the goods and of course VAT would also be charged at PoS in the UK. There would be an import tariff on many UK goods entering the EU making them more expensive there.[/quote]

 Makes me laugh you all talk as though the UK only exports to the EU and doesn't import any thing at all from the EU. Plus I always thought that VAT was already charged at point of sale in the UK, if not I've been ripped off rotten for years? Any way if we don't get a better deal then the residents of the UK will vote in or out, it will be our decision.
[/quote]

Well 80% of the cars Nissan, Toyota and Honda build in the UK are exported to the EU. Remember Japan does not build LHD cars at home as they drive on the same side as us. The UK is much nearer to Europe than Japan so they make LHD in the UK and a couple of small plants in the rest of Europe. If these factories go, I would suggest once one jumps the others will follow, what about the UK workers. Thatcher gave these companies big incentives to build their factories not just in the UK but in areas where there was a lot of unemployment due to other industries closing. I keep try to explain that the unemployemnt is not just restricted to the actual factories but to the small companies that produce lights, seats, radios etc, etc in the UK and elswhere in Europe who will be affected. Thousands will lose their jobs, try explaining that to those that lose their job just because some think it is 'fashionable' to say we are better out of the EU.

If your a business you can claim VAT back. Say your Nissan and you buy bumpers from a factory in Spain. You have to pay VAT on the bumper but you then claim the VAT back. When the car is sold the dealer pays the manufacturer VAT which he claims back and then he charges the end user. If the manufacture can't claim the VAT back that efectivly raises the price of the car by around 20%. I use this because we are talking about cars but it works for just about anything. When countries negotiate a trade deal often part of the deal includes VAT. On top of this the EU charges import tariffs on none EU goods, this is another area where trade deals are done. Yes we could do trade deals with the EU but there will also be many restrictions.

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The EU runs a trade surplus with the UK and for countries like France and Germany the UK in many areas of manufacturing is it's biggest single country export market. Therefore, if the UK voted to leave the EU it undoubtedly would be offered the same free trade arrangements as Norway and Switzerland that have all the free trade membership benefits without being a member of the EU. Under these circumstances there would be no economic disadvantage for the foreign car manufacturers maintaining their UK presence.

What will probably happen is that the Eurozone countries will move to further political and monetary integration and there will be an outer tier of countries that have the free trade benefits but not be a full member of the EU for political or monetary purposes.

That said the Northern European countries like Germany, Scandinavia, Poland and the Netherlands will fight hard to keep the UK in the EU as a political counterweight to the influence of the Mediterranean countries, which would grow without the counterweight of the UK which has the second largest populace of any EU country after Germany and is forecast to shortly overtake France as Europe's second largest economy.
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Let's be honest. Nobody actually knows what will happen if the UK left the EU. The exact terms would depend on negotiations and nobody knows what they will be. The devil is in the detail because small differences in the terms can lead to quite large changes in the overall picture.

Remember that Norway and Switzerland are subject to the same EU rules as member countries but they have no say in draughtiness those rules. The UK must be careful of jumping out of the Frying pan into the fire
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[quote user="NormanH"]It seems to me that some of those who want the UK out of the EU  don't want an independent Scotland, although I may have misread this.

[/quote] Bit like the British who are now residents of France and Spain, who only want what it good for them, and to hell with the wishes of 60odd million in the UK. Independence for England would be my choice.

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[quote user="NickP"][quote user="NormanH"]It seems to me that some of those who want the UK out of the EU  don't want an independent Scotland, although I may have misread this.

[/quote] Bit like the British who are now residents of France and Spain, who only want what it good for them, and to hell with the wishes of 60odd million in the UK. Independence for England would be my choice.

[/quote]

 I don't see the parallel..

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[quote user="NormanH"][quote user="NickP"][quote user="NormanH"]It seems to me that some of those who want the UK out of the EU  don't want an independent Scotland, although I may have misread this.

[/quote] Bit like the British who are now residents of France and Spain, who only want what it good for them, and to hell with the wishes of 60odd million in the UK. Independence for England would be my choice.

[/quote]

 I don't see the parallel..

[/quote] No you wouldn't

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By coincidence, today heralds the dawn of a new piece of legislation, brought in thanks to the UK's membership of the EU, which has reduced mobile phone costs intra-EU by a substantial amount, and which should see roaming charges ultimately disappear altogether. Not much in the great scheme of things, but does anyone really think we'd have this if it had been up to the UK alone to legislate?

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