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4 possible models after a brexit?


lindal1000

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I saw this on the BBC and it's the first time I've seen a clear explanation of the possible trading models after a Brexit.

So what option would you all go for?

Norway model: Member of European Economic Area, full access to single market, obliged to make a financial contribution and accept majority of EU laws, free movement applies as it does in the EU

◾ Swiss model: Member of the European Free Trade Association but not the European Economic Area, access to EU market governed by series of bilateral agreements, covers some but not all areas of trade, also makes a financial contribution but smaller than Norway's, doesn't have a general duty to apply EU laws but does have to implement some EU regulations to enable trade, free movement applies

◾ Free Trade Agreement: Deal would be negotiated after UK voted to leave, generally mean low tariffs on goods but trade in services is usually more limited, exact obligations would depend on depth of agreement: the more comprehensive, the more co-operation there would be on standards, regulations, etc, no free movement or financial contribution (unless they were part of the specific agreement)

◾ World Trade Organisation rules: WTO sets rules for international trade that apply to all members, no free movement or financial contribution, no obligation to apply EU laws although traded goods would still have to meet EU standards, some tariffs would be in place on trade with the EU, trade in services would be restricted

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It's so complicated, and there could be other options I should think. I don't even know what the UK is signed up for at the moment.

We could vote, we've been here just under 15 years,  but haven't registered. If I did vote I would vote for "stay", purely selfish reasons because I'm worried about health provision, and the effect on the exchange rate. Even if the transition problems are temporary.

But if I was a UK resident I think I would vote to leave, with something like the Norwegian option.

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The Norwegian and Swiss options make very little difference to what we have today. We would pay a similar amount to what we do now, Be bound by the the same rules but have no say  in any changes to the rules. Norway, in fact, has more EU immigrants per head of population than the UK.

The other two options leave a lot to be decided after the decision has been taken so it is very much a leap of faith as to whether it will be advantageous or not.

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There's also the possibility of UK state pensions being frozen as they are for UK residents in other countries where there are no reciprocal arrangements eg. Australia. You'd get the state pension but it would not be incremented annually.

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I'm interested that, reading between the lines, voters outside the UK seem inclined to vote for the option they believe is best for their personal, rather than the wider interest.

As I've said before, it would be nice to think that they'd consider the consequences for the generations who will have to live a lot longer with the outcome.
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I think the problem for me is that if I was to vote out I don't know which one of those 4 options I would be voting for. The first two might be acceptable the final two would not be..so unless it is clarified before voting day I will definitely be voting to stay. I don't think it is mine or anyone else's interest to vote for the unknown.
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Well, here is one voter who is undecided and hoping for lots more info before June 23.

I am at the moment planning to go for a weekend's walking in the Pyrenees on samedi 25 to lundi 27 juin to get away from the inevitable post mortem.

Anybody know what les Aldudes near St Etienne de Balgorry is like for some energetic walking?

Should we have to upsticks and move back to the UK, I have my house looking all spick and span and ready to go on the market.

 

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Well I would also vote to stay in.

As someone whose healthcare and pension both come from outside the UK, neither of those factors influence me.

The basis of my decision is simply that the UK is the world's fifth largest economy - so the EU is not the disaster that some of the Brexiteers would have us believe.

Despite that strength of economy, the negotiations for a better deal with the EU delivered very little. I think this should be a strong indicator of the results of any likely trade negotiations under options 3 or 4. Despite the UK strength little would be achieved to the UK betterment. This is not what the leavers would have you believe though.

Under options 1 and 2 you get most of the EU as now (plus Schengen!), but no way to influence the decisions that will impact on you. For me both of these options can therefore be discounted.

The remaining option is then to stay in. The EU is far from perfect, but the only way to make changes from the outside would be war - economic or actual. And exiting and hoping that EU rules will go away ignores the simple fact that if you trade with the EU your products must correspond to the EU norms.

I am clear in my own mind that those businesses who want to exit and have freedom are those who will want to rescind things like working hours directive, safety standards etc.. That would not be good for my children, grandchildren or great grandchildren.
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As a UK resident I will be voting to stay in. This is because I consider it to be the best option for Britain. I do not feel a leap into the unknown is likely to be in the best interests of this country. The next major crisis for Europe(the continent not just the EU) is the migrant crisis which looks set to get even larger in the near future. As one of the countries who by their actions have helped to destabilise the Middle East and Libya we have a responsibility to help resolve this. Some of those seeking asylum are doctors and nurses. Perhaps we could use their skills to help theNHS which has a serious shortfall of people with the necessary skills. The whole problem needs looking at with an open mind so that sensible solutions can be found
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[quote user="andyh4"]  

I am clear in my own mind that those businesses who want to exit and have freedom are those who will want to rescind things like working hours directive, safety standards etc.. That would not be good for my children, grandchildren or great grandchildren.[/quote]

Your mind can't be that clear then, as the UK never signed up to the working time directive. My observations from working in Europe are that safety standards are much higher in the UK already.

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Rabbie wrote,

 

As one of the countries who by their actions

have helped to destabilise the Middle East and Libya we have a responsibility to

help resolve this.

 

 

I don't understand the WE part, please dont

include me in this. I never wanted Iraq invaded back in 2003, I have always been

against it. You might argue the British people voted the government into power

and therefore we have some duty to the ‘refugees’.

But it matters not if you vote

labour or conservative, when both parties have the same agenda.

Vote labour, they tell lies about WMD and

bomb,  vote conservative, they carry on the bombing and expand it for no real

reason.

 

Google Tony Blair's house’s  to see what this

‘Labour leader, man of the working people’ gained from his action, not

bad for someone who has not done too much in the way of

work.

 

So if you think that we in the UK should help

the ‘ refugees’ perhaps Tony should let some have some rooms in one of his

gafs.

 

Or Chequers court is not over

inhabited, perhaps some space could be found there to help. But no, it wont be

either of these places which will be changed forever by a foreign culture, and

their inhabitants inconvenienced by all the extra people at the doctors, or

school, or having to wait even longer for a home of their own, it will be the

poorer working class people from up north who will have to endure

all this.
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The refugee issue is a distraction to the main issue here though. I am more interested in how leaving the EU would affect us economically and what those who are for 'out' are in favour of? Ie what would I be voting for.

J suspect the reality is that within the 'out' lobby there is actually no consensus and in reality it would mean years of wrangling about what 'out' means while the economy disappears down the toilet. Please someone correct me if I am wrong here and point me to a source of information that outlines what 'out' would look like (and not just what you hope it would look like).
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NickP wrote:

the UK never signed up to the working time directive. My observations from working in Europe are that safety standards are much higher in the UK already.

unquote

I would have expected better accuracy from you Nick.

Taken from

https://www.gov.uk/maximum-weekly-working-hours

1. Overview

You can’t work more than 48 hours a week on average - normally averaged over 17 weeks. This law is sometimes called the ‘working time directive’ ...........

The UK abides by the directive but with a single derogation that a worker cam opt out of the 48 hour maximum working hours as defined.

As for safety, I can only speak for my industry where the rules were applied absolutely in all countries within the EU where we operated transitted or delivered.
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Lindal wrote,

 

The refugee issue is a distraction to the main

issue here though. I am more interested in how leaving the EU would affect us

economically and what those who are for 'out' are in favour of? Ie what would I

be voting for.

 

No, the refugee issue is the

main topic for most people, maybe not you, but most in the UK who have to put up

with the influx. You say you need to know the economics' of it all so you know

how to vote. I feel sure you already know how you will

vote.

 

Lindal wrote,

 

J suspect the reality is that within the

'out' lobby there is actually no consensus and in reality it would mean years of

wrangling about what 'out' means while the economy disappears down the toilet.

Please someone correct me if I am wrong here and point me to a source of

information that outlines what 'out' would look like (and not just what you hope

it would look like).

 

As Lindal, you are well aware, no

concrete plans exist as to the way forward after the BRexit

regarding the fine details, but its a fact, that the EU will need to trade with

the UK, and that wont stop. As we buy more from them, then they do from us, I

think we are in a pretty good bargaining position. Especially if you have the

right people doing the deals for the UK.

 

Show some backbone and trust in the

UK, don't fall for Dave's lies, I see now they have lied to us about the number

of EU migrants entering the UK, as many more have applied for a N.I. number then

the government told us had entered.

 

MY ( dear mods please note, this is MY

belief, I have not read it elsewhere, or can I provide any links to this

opinion[Www]) belief is that the reason the UK have not had to take

large numbers of ‘migrants’ is because both the EU and Dave know full well that

if we were taking large numbers now, then there would be a BRexit for sure, so

he has struck a deal with the EU, not to make us take many before the

referendum, but if the UK votes to stay in the EU. then they know

there is nothing we can do to stop the EU making us take large numbers. You may

quote the Schengen agreement, but they will find away around

this.
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[quote user="andyh4"] ...........

The UK abides by the directive but with a single derogation that a worker cam opt out of the 48 hour maximum working hours as defined.

As for safety, I can only speak for my industry where the rules were applied absolutely in all countries within the EU where we operated transitted or delivered.[/quote]

Call it what you like, but in my book and I'm not wrong, it's not signed up to if there is a get out clause. I think my friend you are splitting hairs. The industry I worked in totally ignored the "directive", so do lots of industry's in the UK.

 Health and safety was never as strong, in fact mostly non existent in mainland Europe. I'm well aware of H&S, as myself and a colleague as recognised practitioners were invited by and actually advised  Lloyds of London for insurance purposes of working practices in our area of work. Also although I was not a H&S representative, I was often asked to give an opinion and investigate industry accidents. Your just scaremongering to suit your political view on the Brexit, well in June you'll have your chance but I believe the decision will be made by millions of people of the UK. If they want to stay we will, if not we'll be out; that's democracy.

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So there we have it.

The Brexiteers won't tell us what future they see outside of the EU.

Anyone who points out potential dangers is labelled part of project fear and should be discounted.

The electorate is then left to make a decision based on no information. From what I have seen in various debates information is what they dearly crave.

No wonder Churchill thought democracy as being too precious to be left in the hands of the people.
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It's true that I know which way I am going to vote, but I genuinely would like to see a debate that actually thought through the arguments in a logical and informed way.

I have yet to see it..

The summary from the BBC about the 4 economic possibilities was about the most logical thing I have seen so far..It would be nice to see perhaps some working models as to how all the various options would play out, with the pros and cons of each. Even if there is no agreement about which is best at least lets have some ideas about the possibilities. Similarly with immigration .I've seen lots of arguments along the lines of 'they don't like it up 'em captain mannering, but nothing that really explains in any detail how leaving the EU would change that.
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So pray Nick, which stories have I made up?

The fact that the UK did sign up for the working hours directive with a derogation that allowed workers to chose themselves to work more than 48 hours? Which the UK Government itself describes as the working hours directive - but apparently you do not accept.

Or maybe that options 1 and 2 mean that the UK is subject to many of the EU regulations with no say in how they are formulated? And maybe forced to join Schengen? Both Switzerland and Norway say that they have to follow many EU regulations and that they make substantial payments to the EU for the privilege of having free trade with the EU.

Or that as the fifth largest economy in the world , and negotiating with the world's largest trading block for a new and better deal, DC got very little? I accept that it is my opinion that that demonstrates how likely it is that the UK can agree a deal as a separate entity - but I think the evidence is there to see. Unless you have clear evidence to the contrary.

So just exactly which stories do you think are not correct?? - Ah yes maybe it is my experience of HSE in Europe. Well I said in "my industry" we applied the same standards, but since you do not know me (your favourite phrase) you do not know which industry that is - maybe it is chocolate production, or car production, or motorway construction, or journalism or.............. So it cannot be that, even if your experience is different.

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Why are the "leavers" so coy about saying what they will do if they win the referendum? Is it because despite their rhetoric they don't actually know? Michael Howard says he is in favour of getting a better deal so the UK can stay in after a second referendum. Nigel Farage says out should mean out but does not specify what deals he would actually be able to make. Boris Johnson seems to vary between these positions depending on who he is talking to. Ian Duncan Smith says staying in makes the UK more liable to terrorist attacks but is happy to continue to support the government on all other issues. Perhaps he doesn't want to give up his ministerial salary.

I feel that if there is a vote to leave then many of those who voted for it are going to be disappointed with what actually happens.

Another thought. What will happen if England votes to leave by a small majority but the overall UK vote is to remain in the UK - a by no means impossible scenario given the current opinion polls. Will the Out side accept this result or will this rumble on for many years

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[quote user="andyh4"]

So just exactly which stories do you think are not correct?? - Ah yes maybe it is my experience of HSE in Europe. Well I said in "my industry" we applied the same standards, but since you do not know me (your favourite phrase) you do not know which industry that is - maybe it is chocolate production, or car production, or motorway construction, or journalism or.............. So it cannot be that, even if your experience is different.[/quote]

The UK did not sign up fully to the working time directive, so your claim that they would renege is totally  preposterous, as you can't renege on something you have not signed up to. As for your experience in industry in Europe I would hazard a guess at waffle making. Incidentally my favorite phrase lately is to keep reminding  you your wrong. [:P]

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[quote user="Rabbie"]

Another thought. What will happen if England votes to leave by a small majority but the overall UK vote is to remain in the UK - a by no means impossible scenario given the current opinion polls. Will the Out side accept this result or will this rumble on for many years

[/quote]

 Your assumption is that the government will give results on a regional basis, I doubt it especially if your scenario arose, do you really think they would,? It would cause too much friction. I can imagine the English reaction to the Scots or the Welsh gloating, there would probably be a call for English independence and that would be a problem. As it is; I think there will be an overpowering a vote to stay anyway, so your thoughts while they concern you; will give me no sleepless nights.

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The best thing I have heard about it was on The Now Show on Radio 4 last Friday night.

I used to be able to listen on catch up when I lived in France, no idea whether that is still possible.

Unlike my Dad, I shall not get riled about it all. There will be an election and a decision will be made, c'est tout.

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[quote user="NickP"][quote user="Rabbie"]

Another thought. What will happen if England votes to leave by a small majority but the overall UK vote is to remain in the UK - a by no means impossible scenario given the current opinion polls. Will the Out side accept this result or will this rumble on for many years

[/quote]

 Your assumption is that the government will give results on a regional basis, I doubt it especially if your scenario arose, do you really think they would,? It would cause too much friction. I can imagine the English reaction to the Scots or the Welsh gloating, there would probably be a call for English independence and that would be a problem. As it is; I think there will be an overpowering a vote to stay anyway, so your thoughts while they concern you; will give me no sleepless nights.

[/quote]My assumption was based on how the results were counted and given in the 1975 referendum where it was by parliamentary constituencies.

I am not having any sleepless nights  over the result. As Idun says what happens, happens and we will just have to live with it whatever the result.

I do think it will be close and could well prove catastrophic for the Conservative party especially if your prediction is correct. Time will tell

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