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Great - now what???


Debra

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It was you who previously told me not to panic and now you're telling me I should, since all my income is from the UK.

New prime minister then and that'll be who will invoke article 50.

Hopefully it won't be BJ.

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Nigel Farrage should be congratulated for ensuring democracy is still the bedrock of the British way of life and B Johnson/ T May/ M Gove (I think G Osborne can be ruled out) must negotiate strong and hard to ensure the best possible withdrawl terms from the EU.

regards

cajal

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You are income dependent on the UK ? I am assuming from your rented property ?

Everyone (not just expats) in the EU are income dependent on the UK. France should be very worried for their tourist industry this year.

I don't think anyone actually believed that the UK would vote out. But there you go, they did. That is democracy.

The question now is will the markets and the pound stabilise.

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[quote user="Debra"]Are they really going to do it?

So many questions and trying to remember the advice not to panic.
[/quote]

Article 50.....

 

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

 

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

 

Note that we don't have the final say, that's down to the European Council.

 

France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Poland have already said "no treaty". Germany, Italy, Poland and Ireland have said they want a "quick divorce" so once Article 50 has been invoked it could be as little as six months. This is because of the effect the UK leaving is and will have on their economies and they want to fix them first before anything. If we go the same way as Norway and Switzerland then whilst it might take 10 years nothing will change for us or the UK with the exception that we won't have a vote. Because there would be no restriction on migration with this route it is highly unlikely that we wouldn't go that way.

 

Meanwhile it is not just the euro that is effected....

 

http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market-analysis/xe-market-analysis-europe-jun-24-2016

 

Good time to buy Sterling if your thinking of going back.

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I don't think it will be quite as simple as that, somehow. It's one thing saying 'no treaty' when you're trying to sway the result of a referendum, it's another thing saying 'no treaty' for real.

Germany's line this morning is "in our view an amicable divorce with a continued British membership in the single market is the more likely scenario". And Hollande is currently in a meeting at the Elysées with the EU big bods to decide (be told?!) what his line will be.
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The blind leading the halt and lame, or VV.  ????

Whichever way, I'm already fed up of the follow-on from the debacle of the campaign.  And hardly a decisive vote - just about split down the middle, now that is why, as I understand it, in Switzerland, who could be considered to know how to run a referendum campaign since they run a fair few, there should (yes, I use should, intentionally) always be a fixed percentage of votes for below which the referendum does not pass.  75% one way or the other seems to be a good figure ... anything below that seems completely inconclusive and will lead to problems later on.

So the UK is split down the middle on this issue, who'd want to be there when the s***t hits the fan.

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[quote user="EuroTrash"]I don't think it will be quite as simple as that, somehow. It's one thing saying 'no treaty' when you're trying to sway the result of a referendum, it's another thing saying 'no treaty' for real.

Germany's line this morning is "in our view an amicable divorce with a continued British membership in the single market is the more likely scenario". And Hollande is currently in a meeting at the Elysées with the EU big bods to decide (be told?!) what his line will be.[/quote]

Yep, that is exactly what is going to happen.

In the short term the markets will be very volatile which suits no one. So not before long it will business as usual between the UK and the EU.

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The volatile markets suit risk takers, for every winner there is a loser so those who panic and make precipitous (is that English?) décisions are also risk takers and could be losers or winners.

Interesting and exciting times ahead.

 

Debra, knowing a little of your situation I understand your anxiety and your current precarité, I really dont think anything will change for you in the short or medium term and maybe not even for the worst in the long term.

 

Uncertainty and indecision is what paralyses economies, that when houses dont sell which is of concern for you, there is now one big certainty and I guess myriad small uncertainties over the detail.

 

Maybe in the dwell period you could consider resurrecting your rental business, it could be that in the future the only way UK citizens can move to France will be to be economically active by buying a business, French bank rates will probably be favorable and the values of properties that can generate an income will rise, probably a significant difference between those actually generating a verifiable income (which the lenders understand) and those with potential which they dont, I am talking French lenders here, I think the days of people taking out a UK mortgage for French property are probably over, maybe even the days of having equity in a Uk property to release to buy in France also.

 

I think its fairly certain that the days of being able to easily move to France and live csecurely, omfortably and contentedly on a UK pension are now behind us, its a new era with all the new opportunities that that brings.

 

I am heartened not to read all the bitterness and negative emotions on this forum that are being expressed elsewhere, people are saying that they feel ashamed to be British, a victory for democracy should do the opposite even if you voted against.

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I picked my son up for lunch and he told me his teacher isn't going to

change their Europe project yet as she thinks it will only change again

soon, when the UK change their minds about leaving.  :)

Funnily enough, I was thinking earlier, Chancer, about how much it might cost to put my old place into a state where it could be let.  At least that way I'd have some euro income to rely on - assuming I don't get one of the classic bad tenants I keep reading about.

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You are quite correct. Scotland had a swing towards EU membership compared to 1975 as did Northern Ireland. I heard Boris Johnson say there was no hurry to invoke Article 50 so I imagine they are planning detailed talks to get a relatively swift settlement. The sooner we get definite answers the sooner we can all plan for our futures.

I don't like the result but with a clear majority we have to accept it. Of course, under Mrs Thatcher's rules for the devolution referenda in 1979 this result would not be accepted as it has not got the support of 40% of the electorate but that was then and this is now.

The markets seem to bounced back a little so perhaps we have seen the worst at present. For many expats what will be the most worrying is whether UK state pensions continue to be index linked or are frozen at the levels when we actually leave

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Please - can we get this 'great big lie' about freezing UK pensions out of the way - right now.

The UK, on joining the eu was TOLD - by the eu - that it was one of the 'terms and conditions' that the UK had to -

CUT ALL TIES WITH THE COMMONWEALTH.

That included the NZ lamb, butter, fruit exports from South Africa - EVERYTHING.

And that INCLUDED the UK pensions - they HAD to be frozen - on the instructions of the eu.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing that says any UK citizen living abroad should not be entitled to their State Pension wherever they live.

I'd suggest you look up the list of countries where the pensions are 'frozen' - and where they are STILL paid at the full UK rate.

It might surprise you;  but hopefully we will have a decent government which removes the eu DIKTAT, instruction, T&C - whatever - for all UK citizens living in former Commonwealth countries - but that is EXACTLY what happened when the UK joined.

So dinna fret - there's no risk to UK pensions - why should there be ?  

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Judith 'So the UK is split down the middle on this issue, who'd want to be there when the s***t hits the fan.'

But was it really split down the middle? it seems only half of the UK population voted because the other half either;

weren't allowed to vote? what percentage of the UK would that be?

and those that didn't bother to vote that could have what percentage was that.

It seems to me that half the population of the UK have disappeared somewhere. Do you see what I'm trying to say? Not sure that I know where I'm coming from either - the whole scenario has done me in!

Mrs KG

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Just a thought;  I've read all the doom and gloom predictions;  truth is a lot is going to depend on how the Brussels 'elite' and the gravy-train lot actually respond to this.

It will also depend very much on the quality of the UK civil servants (god help us).... the Sir Humphreys' of the UK - and Brussels.

But bear this in mind;  there are 600,000 French citizens living in the UK;  there are ONLY - according to the DWP - 138,000 UK citizens living PERMANENTLY in France - not the second-home owners, or half-yearly renters - but living permanently.

Now look at the gold lining;  if things 'got sticky' (and they won't) - but - the worst case scenario is that 600,000 french citizens decide to return to France - and they will all need homes won't they ?

Demand for French housing could increase by 400% !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now that's a great thought -

means the value of our homes could increase by ginormous amount !!!!!!!!!!

Lovely Chines curse - 'may you live in interesting times' - not sure it really is a curse.

We'll be fine everyone - honestly.  

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Can you imagine how much it would cost to unfreeze those pensions currently frozen-and can you honestly imagine any UK govt. doing it? Because I can't. And at a time when money will be tight in the UK then freezing pension payments to those living outside the UK (once the EU couldn't insist on it not happening) could seem very attractive.
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[quote user="chessie"]Demand for French housing could increase by 400% !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now that's a great thought -

means the value of our homes could increase by ginormous amount !!!!!!!!!!

[/quote]

ummmm.....in Paris and other French cities yes, the Costa del Dordogne........not so much.

Talking of which, all the those banks and financial institutions threatening to move their operations and staff to Paris need have a reality check. Where exactly are their staff going to live ? The shortage of housing in Paris is ridiculous and it is not going to improve in the short term.

I am guessing they will stay in the UK.
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[quote user="chessie"]Please - can we get this 'great big lie' about freezing UK pensions out of the way - right now.

The UK, on joining the eu was TOLD - by the eu - that it was one of the 'terms and conditions' that the UK had to -
CUT ALL TIES WITH THE COMMONWEALTH.

That included the NZ lamb, butter, fruit exports from South Africa - EVERYTHING.

And that INCLUDED the UK pensions - they HAD to be frozen - on the instructions of the eu.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing that says any UK citizen living abroad should not be entitled to their State Pension wherever they live.

I'd suggest you look up the list of countries where the pensions are 'frozen' - and where they are STILL paid at the full UK rate.

It might surprise you;  but hopefully we will have a decent government which removes the eu DIKTAT, instruction, T&C - whatever - for all UK citizens living in former Commonwealth countries - but that is EXACTLY what happened when the UK joined.

So dinna fret - there's no risk to UK pensions - why should there be ?  
[/quote]

With regards to pension we have agreements with 17 non EU countries include Commonwealth countries. (See DWP document CF-N-701 12/13). As a block we have the same with the EU. So no they did not have to be frozen because of the EU. In all other countries your UK state pension is frozen at the rate you initially received it i.e. you are not entitled to annual increases. If you go back to the UK for three months or so then you can claim the increase for those three months but it will return to the initial rate when you go back. See the DWP website.

 

You are right in that you can claim your pension from anywhere in the world if you meet the current requirements. However the amount will depend on how many years of NI contributions you have.

 

Funny, I can buy New Zeeland lamb in both the UK and France. The bananas I bought today come from Ghana which last time I looked at a map was not inside the EU.

 

 

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[quote user="chessie"]Just a thought;  I've read all the doom and gloom predictions;  truth is a lot is going to depend on how the Brussels 'elite' and the gravy-train lot actually respond to this.
It will also depend very much on the quality of the UK civil servants (god help us).... the Sir Humphreys' of the UK - and Brussels.

But bear this in mind;  there are 600,000 French citizens living in the UK;  there are ONLY - according to the DWP - 138,000 UK citizens living PERMANENTLY in France - not the second-home owners, or half-yearly renters - but living permanently.
 
[/quote]

 

I think it will be Boris (god forbid) who will be leading the negotiations initially, if there are any. The EU council of ministers (according the BBC today) are meeting on MOnday and may start the UK leaving process straight away without waiting.

 

The 138,000 Brits living in France is only the amount the DWP comes into contact with, there are around another 70,000. This figure of 600,000 French is at odds with the figure from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). It carries out a household survey once a year and its most recent one says there are 123,000 French nationals in the whole of the UK and only 66,000 are in London. There are however a further 83,000 French students resident in the UK.

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Presumably, whilst Article 50 will not be invoked for a while there will be informal discussions.

No doubt the governments of various EU countries will be lobbied by various industries, in particular Germany - i.e. BMW, Mercedes, VW etc as the UK is a large market for them.

Perhaps Poland is now reflecting on opposing child benefits being paid to Poles working in the UK whilst the children were in Poland - seems like they could get an even worse deal.

Sorry for those of you living here permanently and replying on income from the UK though what the £ has dropped to at the moment is still much higher than it was a couple of years ago.
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Rabbie - http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/alex-salmond-second-scottish-independence-referendum-is-certain

 

It's all over the UK news channels as well.

 

I can see their point. One reason to vote Remain (part of the union) for the Scots was the UK staying in the EU. Indeed this was pushed quite hard. Much as I would like them to stay and as much as I have to respect the majority of my fellow country men/women with regards to the EU I think it only fair that the Scots have another referendum especially when so many voted to stay in the EU. Why should they have to leave if the country they have a union with wants to? Fair play and all that. Think of all the jobs rebuilding that old roman wall will create. [:D]

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[quote user="PaulT"]Presumably, whilst Article 50 will not be invoked for a while there will be informal discussions. No doubt the governments of various EU countries will be lobbied by various industries, in particular Germany - i.e. BMW, Mercedes, VW etc as the UK is a large market for them. Perhaps Poland is now reflecting on opposing child benefits being paid to Poles working in the UK whilst the children were in Poland - seems like they could get an even worse deal. Sorry for those of you living here permanently and replying on income from the UK though what the £ has dropped to at the moment is still much higher than it was a couple of years ago.[/quote]

 

I am sure I read that the total percentage of EU exports to the UK is 8% from their end. From our end we import more than we export. Germany produced 6.3M cars in 2015 of which 500k went to the UK.

 

I wouldn't worry about the Euro at the moment but more the USD as the American markets are now in full flight. Lowest rate since 1985 apparently. Think about petrol and how we pay for oil. Could be 10 or 11p a ltr extra in a couple of days but lets wait and see.

 

If you hold Euros it's a good time to get some xmas shopping in on Amazon.uk.

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