Is there a possibility of certain European countries having problems?

[PaulT]

Those charged with Brexiting the EU are reporting that countries are coming forward wanting trade deals (I read that the EU / US deal has come off the rails). Now, assuming the Brexit happens and the UK finds itself in the happy position of selling around the world and everything is good what impact will that have on those countries making net contributions to the EU where there are already voices of discontent?

[EuroTrash]

I'm trying to get my head round what there is of any substance in this post, when you've taken out the 'reporting' and 'assuming' and 'ifs'.

Isn't it a bit like saying, If I go out and collect all the eggs my hens have laid, assuming they laid any, and perhaps break a few on the way to the kitchen, will my omelette be bigger than everyone else's in the street and will they all be sick as parrots because they reportedly feed their hens more expensive feed?

[suein56]

Immediately following the referendum result some French newspapers (I didn't look at them all) were saying that the UK's decision to leave the EU would trigger other referenda and that the gradual decline of the EU in its present form might be inevitable.

Sue

[Rabbie]

Remember that the UK cannot sign any independent trade agreements until it actually leaves the EU.

It seems that there is now increased support for staying in the EU in some other countries such as Denmark after the Brexit vote where support has gone up by nearly 10% so it may be a bit soon to write off the EU.

Time will tell

[alittlebitfrench]

Marine Le Pen is by all accounts ahead in the polls and could quite possibly (I think she will) win next year. More so if there are any more attacks in France. Combined with the situation in Turkey I would say that the EU is living on borrowed time.

I would not worry so much about the effects of Brexit but rather Frexit.

[andyh4]

PaulT wrote:

assuming the Brexit happens and the UK finds itself in the happy position of selling around the world

This sort of comment has been made on several occasions including from leading leavers. I just don't understand it. Just as there will be nothing stopping the UK trading with the EU in the future, there was nothing in the past stopping it trading with the rest of the world - except for with the very few embargo countries, which will remain off the trade map.

[NormanH]

1) I agree on the danger of LePen becoming President.

2) Surely all the countries that have had a  trade deals with the EU will have to negotiate one separately with the UK to replace it.

Yet a few of them saying that they are thinking of this  is being presented as something special. Why?

[Rabbie]

[quote user="NormanH"]1) I agree on the danger of LePen becoming President.

2) Surely all the countries that have had a  trade deals with the EU will have to negotiate one separately with the UK to replace it.

Yet a few of them saying that they are thinking of this  is being presented as something special. Why?

[/quote]With regard to Point 2 I suspect that these countries think they can negotiate an advantageous deal with the UK given that there is a shortage of experienced Trade negotiators in the UK and the general lack of preparation for a Brexit. They will hope that the UK is desparate to do deals. We must remember that there is much more than trade agreements to be  arranged. There needs to be work done in putting reciprocal healthcare agreements in place and also double tax agreements etc

[andyh4]

Rabbie

Double Taxation treaties are bilateral and completely independent of the EU. They need to be of course because each country has its own individual taxation arrangements and so a treaty that talks of social contributions has meaning in France but no meaning in Germany, where the equivalent payments are broken down to individual insurances - health, pension, invalidity, home care etc..

Important though health care arrangements may be to some of us, I think trade arrangements (not necessarily treaties) will be more important to the UK. However just because the EU has a treaty with a country, does not mean that the UK should or maybe even can have a treaty with that country. You don't need a treaty to trade, but having one with key partners may be advantageous to both parties.

[Rabbie]

Andy, thank you for your correction re Double Taxation treaties.

[Russethouse]

So let's assume that the UK doesn't really do any sort of deal and goes to WTO tariffs, thus doing away with the need for free movement of workers and has no need to pay the EU any money at all, how will the EU make up the shortfall in finances ?

[idun]

I have been wondering that too RH.

[andyh4]

In the event that that was the route taken - and I am not sure it will be - then car imports into the EU attract a 10% import tariff under WTO agreements. Just one of many things that will create income from the UK to the EU - and probably in the reverse direction.

[Russethouse]

But won't that go into each countries individual coffers rather than a EU fund ?

Oh and Andy the more Hollande indulges in this puffed up political posturing and pathetic foot stamping the more likely that scenario gets IMHO....and perhaps we could see La Pen, Merkel and May as leaders in the not too distant future.....

( Merkel and May sounds like a double act !!)

[idun]

I may be wrong but when these amount go into the individual countries coffers, then the amount they are paid and then pay to the EU is based on such things, ie the amount of VAT or import tax.

As I said, that is how I thought it worked, and it is too late to look up.

[NormanH]

The amount UK and other tax-payers actually spend is the easiest

concept to grasp, because it is what the Treasury reports in its

accounts. On this measure, which takes account of the ‘money back’ from

the rebate, the UK generally pays the smallest share of its GNI of all

member states.

It is, however, a figure which fluctuates quite sharply over the

years. Over the 2007-13 MFF, the UK’s spending on the EU budget

fluctuated between £7.8 billion (in 2008) and £14.4 billion (in 2013),

amounting, respectively, to around 0.55% and 0.83% of GNI. Comparative

data show that even in 2013, when the UK payment peaked, Poland paid in

1.13% of its GNI while Greece, despite the crisis in its finances, paid

1.05%. In 2014, according to the Treasury, the UK share (after rebates)

of the payments into the EU budget was 11%, compared with 12.2% for

Italy and 16.3% for France (two similar sized countries), while

Germany’s share was 21.3%.

The net contribution is the difference between what a country pays

into the budget and the EU spending it receives. Even here there is

ambiguity: the Treasury data counts only money flowing back to the UK

public accounts, whereas the Commission also records flows to the

private sector.

In 2013, the UK net contribution, according to European Commission

data on what is called the ‘operating budget balance’, reached 0.46% of

UK GNI, the fourth highest in the EU after Sweden, Denmark and Germany,

and a little more than the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and France.

In 2008, however, the UK net contribution was just 0.05% of GNI, only

the twelfth highest, and a long way short of the Netherlands at 0.46%

Source: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/the-eu-budget-a-tough-nut-for-the-uk-3/