Grim predictions

[NormanH]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/how-can-coronavirus-models-get-it-so-wrong

[suein56]

The possible predicted total no of UK deaths by August could be 66 000 .. more than Italy, Spain, France and Germany combined .. grim reading indeed.

[NickP]

More Guardian propaganda doing its usual job, which is anything to knock and accuse the government.

[cajal]

From the article, which would appear to be nothing more than a stab in the dark with their predictions.

"Crucially, modelling or any other analysis depends on the data that

can be gathered. Inevitably, the IHME has better data for the likely

outcomes of Covid-19 in Italy and Spain, where the epidemics have

peaked, than for the UK, its director, Dr Christopher Murray, says.

The margins for the organisation’s predictions of daily deaths in the

UK are big – a tenfold variation from 800 to 8,000 near the peak which,

it predicts, will happen around 17 April."

For those of you who are residents of France Here is a more useful insight from an up-to- date article of what could be a serious threat to your very existance whilst living here.

Remember, projections are just that and can be used in a variety of ways to suit the particular media's agenda.

[NormanH]

For France I use

https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-coronavirus/carte-et-donnees

and

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/04/01/coronavirus-visualisez-le-nombre-de-personnes-hospitalisees-departement-par-departement_6035199_4355770.html

The site which that data comes from is

http://www.healthdata.org/

and the specific section is here:

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

I do not think that this Institute have the intention of 'knocking ' or "accusing" the UK government, nor is it a propaganda site.

[NickP]

Take into account that the UK is a small country territory wise and a large population. Have a look at the figures in the Netherlands, once again a relatively small country, just under one third the population of the UK one-third of the deaths of the UK. The French site you quote has no reason to knock the UK.government, the Guardian does, and constantly reports anything it can to undermine the present government. Years ago they would have been fifth columnists, in fact they have taken over from the blackshirt daily Mail of the thirties.

[woolybanana]

Well, if the number of cases is dropping, then, eventually the number of deaths should drop too, eventually. That is all that matters.

[idun]

I am pretty sure that not enough cases are being tested in France or the UK.

And number of deaths, well, we will all see won't we.

Whatever happens, will happen. Those of us who are reasonable will do our best and those that aren't, well, there are always idiots, but they should be dealt with firmly.

[NormanH]

The level of testing in France has been very low. I can't comment about the UK as I am not there, but I agree with you

[woolybanana]

Have I misunderstood something? Thus far, the several sources I have read seem to say that the tests are not reliable and have been rejected, all of them. Does this imply that only those tests which have been administered in the UK or worldwide have been unable to do the job? In which case, all the statistics are up the spout.

[NickP]

That is scary

[nomoss]

An interesting article, which raises the question of how many people really have the virus.

Apologies if this has been posted already.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

[NormanH]

I did see figures for France which compared the usual number of deaths in these months with the ones this year

https://www.lemonde.fr/sante/article/2020/03/28/selon-l-insee-la-surmortalite-est-la-plus-forte-dans-le-haut-rhin_6034731_1651302.html

[Meek Megan]

You cannot and should not believe the mainstream media and the figures being quoted by governments are misleading because no one knows how many cases there are. The only way to find out would be to test the entire population and that is simply not going to happen.

Even death from Coronavirus figures are unreliable as most of the unfortunates had underlying health problems and not all have actually been tested.

The comparison figures of deaths compared to previous years are probably the most helpful at the moment. In the UK the ONS publishes weekly figures of excess winter deaths. They use the average figure from the previous five years for comparison rather than just looking at last year.

To put it in perspective - in 2014/2015 there were an EXTRA 44,000 winter deaths in the UK due to a nasty flu virus. I do not recall it being mentioned at the time.

[NormanH]

NickP

"the Guardian does, and constantly reports anything it can to undermine

the present government. Years ago they would have been fifth columnist"

I presume you also include the Telegraph in  that?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/

[NickP]

In today's world I include all media, they only want to report or make up bad news. So to answer your question Norman yes I do. By the way, it is usually common courtesy when quoting somebody to use the whole quote. I'm sure of course you know that and that in your haste to get your message across it slipped your mind. LOL Stay safe.

[NormanH]

https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/4470857

Compares deaths in each department in March 2020 in comparison to 2019

[NickP]

Interesting stats Norman but I suppose that the big problem now is the number of people in intensive care and those needing hospital attention.

[woolybanana]

They don't seem to count those dying off in the old folks homes where the word moroire is now appropriate.

Just spoken to one of my daughters in Belgium who says that the doctors are just giving pain killers to the residents and not attempting any other form of medical treatment.

[NormanH]

This site explicitly differentiates between Hospital and EHPAD deaths

https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-coronavirus/carte-et-donnees

Some countries don't count the ones in Homes.

I don't know whether the UK stats do or not.

[woolybanana]

Thank you for that, Norman. If those dying in homes had been sent to hospitals you can imagine the chaos that would have ensued.

[Lori]

Saw a story on BFM about a man who's 90 year old wife was in a care home.  He could not see her due to the deaths and cases at hand.  She did not have the virus, but there were so many cases in the retirement home that they had moved the few who weren't diagnosed with the virus to one particular floor.  He was heartbroken to not be able to see his wife.  It was a tear jerker.  She could not understand what was happening (a bit of dementia).  He said he calls her each day to try to encourage her.  It was really so heartbreaking.  It was hard to watch.  He was so lucid and so sad.

[chessfou2]

UK stats count only deaths in hospital (except, I think, ScotGov includes care homes).

Therefore, I think to get a roughly equivalent approximation of UK-FR deaths, add 50-60% to UK number.

Insee provides interesting stats of 'surmortalité' (excess deaths 2020 compared with 2018/19), e.g. Haut-Rhin +120%, '93' +70+%. My neck of the woods +8%.

Also very interesting to compare UK & Ireland - similar countries, each with poor levels of ventilators (well below EU average) at start of pandemic, now with a Covid-19 death rate in England 2.5x that of Ireland.

[NickP]

"I think"??? "The COVID death rate in England 2.5 times that of Ireland" Might just be something to do with population figures, England has 10 times the amount of people.

[PaulT]

The performance by the UK government is so dire can you believe anything they say?