monsieur macon Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 In a British broadsheet the following article discusses the UK's move towards EU exit. If a referendum were held tomorrow, the UK would probably leave the EU. I would like to know what significance this would have for Brits living in Europe, namely France....would the UK have to renegotiate all the EU treaties? will we return to needing a visa to visit France (carte de sejour as was 50yrs ago)...what happens to Brits who work in France? Overall, it doesn't seem to rosy!!! Thanks Mr UKIP!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsieur macon Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/30/britain-european-exit-poll-gulf-eu-attitudes?commentpage=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quillan Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="monsieur macon"]would the UK have to renegotiate all the EU treaties? [/quote]If it is not a member then it can't negotiate. It could however join the "European Free Trade Association" (EFTA). To be a member would mean you need to abide by EU legislation and your entry and annual fess would be the same as being a full member with one exception you have no vote. This is the way Norway and Switzerland works with the EU and most of the Norwegians I know are pretty fed up. The article quoted is correct in one part that the Norwegians don't want to be an EU member but what it does not tell you is they want Norway to leave the EFTA as well. They believe they hold the two trump cards, gas and oil, so they can hold the EU to ransom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabbie Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 As with Scottish independence the electorate is being fed information based as much on wishful thinking as on reality. No-one actually knows what the situation would be if the UK left the EU. I have a suspicion that the EU would drive a hard bargain if the UK left so it could well finish up being a lose-lose situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YCCMB Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 In the words (and grammar!)of Joni Mitchell:" You don't know what you got till it's gone" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyh4 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="Quillan"]If it is not a member then it can't negotiate. It could however join the "European Free Trade Association" (EFTA). [/quote]And that of course is an assumption - namely that EFTA would have the UK - which was formerly a member but then left when it joined the EEC as it then was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EuroTrash Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 That's what annoys me about all the referendum talk. Nobody knows what would happen if at some point future the UK left the EU, because it is new territory and everything would have to be negotiated. So in effect a referendum would ask people to vote on a course of action without knowing the consequences. Fair enough if you present it like that - but the pro-exit people keep very quiet about the fact that it will be a leap into the unknown with absolutely no guarantees of how much goodwill big bad Europe will decide to show to our tiny little island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quillan Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Well whilst it is true that the bulk of the UK exports (as a single group) go to the EU and that the difference in imports from the EU is +£5bn a month UKIP would say that EU needs the UK as a place to sell its goods. Well this is true, look around you; most of your household appliances come from the EU. Greece for instance (as I discovered just the other day) is the biggest TV manufacturer in Europe and many budget end TVs you see around come from there. So the argument could also be reversed, the UK does not make washing machines, irons, dish washers, TV's (low end) etc and imports much of them from inside the EU. If the EU stopped sending them to the UK it would be good for the EU consumer, there would be a glut and prices for a while would fall.The other thing is will the EU negotiate, I don't think so. Not in the future should the UK leave but not even now. You are in or you are out and that’s the end of it. Lets be honest for a moment, anyone had an employee who has come and asked for a rise because another company has offered them a better deal because my answer whenever it has happened is "there’s the door close it on the way out and pick up your P45 before you leave". The EU will not allow the UK put a gun to its head. If it allows one country to 'negotiate' then they will all be queuing up at the door.As somebody said recently “Britain is a small island nobody pays any attention to, apart from the Russian oligarchs who bought up Chelsea.” and to be honest they are right. We really need to get over the fact that we consider ourselves to be up at the top of the tree playing with the 'big boys' because we are not. We are not however a small inconsequential country either, we are somewhere in the middle of the two these days but we need to learn how to wind our necks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsieur macon Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 agree with the sentiment of these posts that better in, than out of the EU. I've heard UKIP supporters comparing the Uk to Switzerland and Norway!! Switzerland and Norway we are definitely not! In all honesty, what would be UK be outside the EU? A very small island in a very disadvantaged position to bargain with the EU. I cant see France and Germany making a special arrangement with the UK out of sentiment, in business there is very little of that. The UK would no doubt have to import EU products (food mainly) under un-interesting terms of trade. Or would the USA come to save us??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Zoff Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Politicians know that playing the Winston/Maggie/Rule Britannia card goes down well with voters. Anything said in opposition appears unpatriotic. Encouraged by the likes of the Mail and the Sun, Brits are by nature jingoists and all too ready to believe that if they shout loud enough at Johnny Foreigner - or threaten him with the Royal Navy - they will get their way. Could be in for some disappointment there, I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YCCMB Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I find myself wishing for a new country to be created. Maybe there is a deal to be struck where Scotland gains independence (which kicks them out of the EU on a technicality) and everyone who wants out of the EU can then move there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickles Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="You can call me Betty"]I find myself wishing for a new country to be created. Maybe there is a deal to be struck where Scotland gains independence (which kicks them out of the EU on a technicality) and everyone who wants out of the EU can then move there.[/quote]Why saddle the Scots? Surely the best location is Rockall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulT Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Q said:'So the argument could also be reversed, the UK does not make washing machines, irons, dish washers, TV's (low end) etc and imports much of them from inside the EU. If the EU stopped sending them to the UK it would be good for the EU consumer, there would be a glut and prices for a while would fall.'Do not think so - the manufacturers will either employ the same number of people, produce the same amount of product and sell to the UK at the normal rate or they will reduce the workforce, produce fewer items and sell those within the EU at the same price or higher due to economies of scale. If the latter then unemployment will need to be paid giving another drag on taxpayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quillan Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="monsieur macon"]Or would the USA come to save us???[/quote]Love it.When yu think or America just cast your mind back to 2003 and think about Bush talking to Blair. Bush - "Hey Tony we are poping over to Iraq for a bit of a do and thought you might like to join in". Blair- "Why would I want to do that?"Bush - " Well afterwards there will be all these jucy contracts to rebuild the place, half for me and half for you".Blair - "Sounds as if we could make a few bob out of this but how do I sell it to them back home". Bush - "Oh just tell them there are these bombs and stuff there that could kill everyone on the planet, you won't have any problems".Blair - "Great, where do I sign".Meanwhile ten years later the UK does not even have the contract to change the batteries on Iraq police bike lamps so much for the Americans helping us. If your thinking that America will be rushing to our aid forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YCCMB Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="Pickles"][quote user="You can call me Betty"]I find myself wishing for a new country to be created. Maybe there is a deal to be struck where Scotland gains independence (which kicks them out of the EU on a technicality) and everyone who wants out of the EU can then move there.[/quote]Why saddle the Scots? Surely the best location is Rockall![/quote]I am planning on the huge entertainment value to be had from loads of English people trying to get in and being labelled as immigrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quillan Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="PaulT"]Q said: 'So the argument could also be reversed, the UK does not make washing machines, irons, dish washers, TV's (low end) etc and imports much of them from inside the EU. If the EU stopped sending them to the UK it would be good for the EU consumer, there would be a glut and prices for a while would fall.' Do not think so - the manufacturers will either employ the same number of people, produce the same amount of product and sell to the UK at the normal rate or they will reduce the workforce, produce fewer items and sell those within the EU at the same price or higher due to economies of scale. If the latter then unemployment will need to be paid giving another drag on taxpayers.[/quote]And the VAT, how will they get round that which accounts for 20% or more of the value of the product when it leaves the factory. The UK would no longer be in EU dual taxation VAT scheme so the end user price in the UK will be around 20% higher than it is in Europe. That added to the dramatic drop in the value of sterling against the Euro when it leaves would mean only the rich in the UK could afford EU goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YCCMB Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 ...which would make it cost-effective (if you accept the basic premise that all these white goods we buy are, indeed, of EU origin, and plenty are not) to produce them in the UK, which would encourage manufacturing, which would create jobs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickles Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="You can call me Betty"][quote user="Pickles"][quote user="You can call me Betty"]I find myself wishing for a new country to be created. Maybe there is a deal to be struck where Scotland gains independence (which kicks them out of the EU on a technicality) and everyone who wants out of the EU can then move there.[/quote]Why saddle the Scots? Surely the best location is Rockall![/quote]I am planning on the huge entertainment value to be had from loads of English people trying to get in and being labelled as immigrants.[/quote]And you think that watching people trying to land on Rockall and fighting with the seagulls, puffins and whatever else lives there wouldn't be entertaining? AND then there's the dispute with the Republic of Ireland over who owns the damn thing - pure comedy gold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard51 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 This is somewhat one-sided. Who would France/Germany prefer to be their partners in the EU? Romania or the UK. I certainly would like the terms to be reviewed before agreeing to staying in wonderful Europe. In or out I cant see UK population being called anything but immigrants if going to France especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quillan Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="You can call me Betty"]...which would make it cost-effective (if you accept the basic premise that all these white goods we buy are, indeed, of EU origin, and plenty are not) to produce them in the UK, which would encourage manufacturing, which would create jobs......[/quote]You would like to think so wouldn't you but what difference would it make if we were inside the EU, it would be even more attractive so why have they not set meanufacturing plants up there. I think perhaps the reason may be manufacturing costs and dare I say the unions and their past reputation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsieur macon Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 i'm not so sure about the Romania/UK comparison....Eastern Europe is up and coming, with plenty to develop and exploit, resources, land, farming etc etc...cheap labor, probably not that many labor laws, light government legislation etc. The UK has London and the bankers!! Merkel may well prefer to invest in Romania (factories, cars, producing goods, selling goods), than the UK. Apart from retail and banks, im hard pushed to see what the UK does economically, oh yer, speculation on the housing market....that's' a great British past time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YCCMB Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Frankly, it's been quite a long time since the UK was THAT high in terms of manufacturing costs, and the unions are certainly more reasonable to deal with than those in, say, France, Italy or Spain, but the point is that things could only improve in relative terms, if the pound weakened and the UK left the EU.AFAIK, Nissan still has its most productive and cost-effective manufacturing facility in the world in the north east UK, and I'm sure there are plenty of other manufacturing companies who are in the same vein. The whole point is that if, as you seemed to be suggesting, sterling loses significant value against the Euro (and I'm not convinced) then any disparity in costs would have to be considered in the light of just that. After all, the world doesn't stop at the end of the Eurozone or the wider EU. The UK could manufacture for domestic consumption AND export. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quillan Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 [quote user="monsieur macon"]i'm not so sure about the Romania/UK comparison....Eastern Europe is up and coming, with plenty to develop and exploit, resources, land, farming etc etc...cheap labor, probably not that many labor laws, light government legislation etc. The UK has London and the bankers!! Merkel may well prefer to invest in Romania (factories, cars, producing goods, selling goods), than the UK. Apart from retail and banks, im hard pushed to see what the UK does economically, oh yer, speculation on the housing market....that's' a great British past time!!![/quote]Funny enough I was reading something about Romania a couple of weeks back. Apparently their manufacturing sector is growing at an incredible rate, definitely in the 40 plus percent over the last five years. Germany is probably the biggest investor there and France is second. Unemployment is dropping quite dramatically with more people in work than ever before. Unemployment is currently about the same as the UK when expressed as a percentage. They are currently (well from 2008) been modernising their health service based on the UK model. Whilst they already had a public free healths service before it did not have good geographical cover of the country so they are building more hospitals and sending GPs out into the small towns and villages. Actually I thought at the time if all this is true why would they want to go to the UK which for them is quite similar except they need to learn another language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quillan Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Problem is you can read a lot about all this stuff Betty and in reality is all "maybe, possibly, could be" etc. etc. The reality is nobody really knows for sure until it happens and you can bet your last pound that nobody has even thought of a Plan B if there was a yes vote to leave. It was reported in the newspapers a month back that Honda would move out of the UK if there was a yes vote. Toyota has moved their hybrid manufacturing out of the UK to Brazil although that 'line' is now making another car whose name escapes me. They have also opened a new massive parts factory just outside Madrid which is three times the required size. Perhaps they are also planning ahead, who knows.A comment in the Daily Mail and Honda I did find funny about Honda possibly leaving the UK if there was a yes vote was when somebody wrote “and good riddance, we can build our own cars and sell them at home”, somebody replied “yes Allegro’s, Marina’s and look how good they were". I also read that the Mini (now owned by BMW) is still built in the UK at the original plant and their production is very productive and efficient. Only the estate version (Countryman) is made outside the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulT Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Q did not believe that VAT was charged on exports outside of the EU so the company exporting to a non EU country, i.e. UK if it opted out, would not charge VAT prior to export. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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