Macron's campaign

[NormanH]

Another good article (in English) about the French Presidential campaign from Angelique Christafis. It is interesting on the ways the campaign is being run using modern methods.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/03/emmanuel-macron-french-presidential-candidate-grassroots-movement

[Mint2]

I must say that the "I am undecided" nature of the mood that your piece picks up on seems to be representative of the 20 to 30 people that I have spoken to recently.

They all claim that they haven't yet chosen.  Could be that's true or could be that they think it's none of my business.  I am discreet enough not to ask "who", merely have you made up your mind as it's now a mere 3 weeks away?

With 11 candidates, there are bound to be some interesting splits.

[idun]

Those I know are divided between not knowing especially since they have become enraged by the Fillon affair, and a couple of others stating that they are going with Le Pen, at least in the first round and perhaps in the second too..... 

My son who cannot vote, quite likes Hamon's style, but I reckon that Macron will get in. But my is he a cool operator, so thick skinned ...... and yes, he has quite a following.

[NormanH]

Here is a perceptive and interesting article on the background that might prevent him succeeding, especially the fact that France has still not come to terms with her Colonial history:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/08/emmanuel-macron-carries-hope-france

[richard51]

Must admit, I had thought that Macron was definitely going to be the winner - period.

My rational was that:

1. France is by definition very left.

2. M L Pen has a finite base on the far right.

3. Left choice Fillon has cocked it up with his greed.

4. Macron fills the massive middle ground.

Not that I like the Bliar types.

Not a brilliant field

Is this too simplistic?

[NormanH]

I think that Fillon is making a bit of a come-back, as his supporters don't want to see Macron or Le Pen elected.

Don't forget that there is only really one place left in the second round since Le Pen will almost certainly go through.

Recent polls showed Le Pen and Macron on 23% and Fillon and Mélenchon on 19 so there is no big gap.

Questions are also being asked about who would be the government if Macron wins, since he has no party behind him unlike Fillon.

I would hope Macron can beat Le Pen, but for that he has to get to the second round, and with this 4 horse race that could be complicated.

Another factor in favour of this is a likely low turnout of voters,

alienated by the series of scandals that have been staining French

political life recently. Many may abstain or vote 'blanc', and that

plays into the hands of the FN who have a very high proportion of

committed supporters who say they are sure to vote for the party, unlike

those who poll as supporting Macron, but also say that there intentions

could change. Le Pen has a much higher level of 'certain' support than

he has, even if they seem to be neck and neck.

That article shows some of the forces against him.

[Mint2]

I must admit that I was really surprised when I heard that Mélenchon and Fillon are neck and neck.

Seems very strange that but there again, at the last election, after le premier tour, Hollande won by a huge majority in our village but le Pen was second!

Centre ground?  Do the electors really understand where that is positioned?

[idun]

AND Melenchon is rallying too........... all very strange......... could 'he' win????? There were supporters at his rally yesterday from the right as well as the left.

As with the US election, I shall watch the both votes with great interest, bet Hollande is glad he got out of it though[6]

[NormanH]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/10/jean-luc-melenchon-shakes-up-frances-presidential-race

What I like about Mélenchon is that he is the only one who really puts humanity at the centre of his arguments.

You can say that he is economically irrealist, but you can't deny him the concern for the downtrodden.

[mint]

Of course, he's been around for so many years that I don't think he has anything new to say.  He is a steady-as-she-goes sort of a person.  Maybe, dare I say it, a bit of a Corbyn figure?

They like SOME of what he says but they are, right in my opinion, to be a bit wary of him.

[mint]

Today, I went for a walk with a group of about 8 French people.

Catching them off guard, because we were just standing around making small talk (parler de la pluie et du beau temps), I casually looked round and said, so we are all supporters of M Macron, then?

They were so taken aback that I took pity on them and said, well, M Macron's supporters and activists are called "les marcheurs", aren't they?

Finally got 2 of them to admit that they had chosen their candidate............I did mention not a week ago that nobody wanted to say they'd made up their minds or that they were genuinely undecided.