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How are ex UK people doing


PaulT
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[quote user="Ron Avery"]

1. Do you really believe that sterling falls just because somebody mentions the R word? 

2. As a matter of interest some people with financial acumen and influence are predicting £1=1.28€ by Christmas and £1=1.35€ by March, you want them to shut up as well?

[/quote]

1. Well Ron, there are several recent examples of rate falls immediately following negative comments by people in power.

2. No, I would like them to SHOUT louder.

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[quote user="Bugbear"]Well Ron, there are several recent examples of rate falls immediately following negative comments by people in power.[/quote]That proves nothing: there are plenty of examples of "negative comments by people in power" that were not followed by rate falls. 

You are falling into the trap of thinking that because X is followed by Y, Y must have been caused by X. 

As for people like Mervyn King: they are required to give their professional opinion on the economy - it's what they're paid for.  You wouldn't want them to lie, would you? 

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I spend almost all my "working" day learning to trade forex online.  I'm one year into it and I'm expecting a lot more work and time at the mill before I trade consistently.  In other words, I've got a lot more to learn.  But one thing I know for sure is that newbies like me should not trade when news is realeased, because the markets can become very volatile.  There are often several news releases a day that can have significant impact.  When When the Governnor of the BoE last made an announcement there was a big reaction to his comments, but this is nothing unusual. 

Another thing to bear in mind is that we could be approacing the bottom; ie, it can't get much worse.   I think it will get worse, but not a lot worse. 

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[quote user="allanb"]That proves nothing: there are plenty of examples of "negative comments by people in power" that were not followed by rate falls. 

You are falling into the trap of thinking that because X is followed by Y, Y must have been caused by X. 

[/quote]

In your opinion Allan. I have a different view, if thats OK with you, of course.

The recent financial collapse events regarding comments made that resulted in a rate drop are pretty clear to both me, and many others.

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There are no threads, no archives, that will tell you that you have options as to where you pay income tax.   If you live here, which I presume is France, then you declare your tax in France, no opting out or in. There is NO choice here.

You do not however, pay tax on UK pensions that are already legally, not in error, taxed in the UK, such as those paid to civil servants, forces, local authority workers and teachers etc, although not as you mention BB, NHS staff.

So, if you know different then please tell us, I am sure that SD is waiting to know as well, as far as I know he shares my opinion stated above.

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[quote user="Bugbear"]I have a different view, if thats OK with you, of course.

The recent financial collapse events regarding comments made that resulted in a rate drop are pretty clear to both me, and many others.

[/quote]Of course you are entitled to any view you like. 

But when two things happen, it is still a fallacy to conclude that one must have caused the other.  Have you considered that the fall might have taken place anyway?

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Another thing to bear in mind is that we could be approacing the

bottom; ie, it can't get much worse.   I think it will get worse, but

not a lot worse.

I seem to recall that at some point in the 1980's the pound touched 7,20 Francs - did I dream that? Anyway, at the 0.844 £ to the € quoted on the Beeb at the moment, the equivalent is something like 7.8 Francs. Perhaps there's a long term support trend at €0.91 (ie 7.2 F) to the £? Sobering thought, particularly as I'll have to stop buying booze at that rate.

Did anyone ever make a living out of trading technicals? Other than writing books to tell other people how to do it? [Www]

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[quote user="The Riff-Raff Element"]Another thing to bear in mind is that we could be approacing the

bottom; ie, it can't get much worse.   I think it will get worse, but

not a lot worse.

I seem to recall that at some point in the 1980's the pound touched 7,20 Francs - did I dream that? Anyway, at the 0.844 £ to the € quoted on the Beeb at the moment, the equivalent is something like 7.8 Francs. Perhaps there's a long term support trend at €0.91 (ie 7.2 F) to the £? Sobering thought, particularly as I'll have to stop buying booze at that rate.

Did anyone ever make a living out of trading technicals? Other than writing books to tell other people how to do it? [Www]

[/quote]

 It wasn't the 1980s it was immediately after Black wednesday 1992, I remember because we signed the lease (thank god not a compromis ) on our house that very day!

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[quote user="Bugbear"]You mean like when you pull the plug out of the sink..............and then the water runs away?[/quote]

You remind me of the cock that crows in the morning; every time, just after he crows, the sun rises.  Of course, it's obvious to him that the sunrise is caused by his crowing.

PS: oh dear, I've been caught by the naughty-word detector.  Can't we use ordinary English on this forum any more?

OK then, it was le coq that I was referring to.

 

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Ron, there seems to be a lot of coincidences then. If you look at the Forex historical chart of GBP v Euro you can see that within the hour of four recent comments/statements being made the Pound went down. AD mentioning the 'R' word, BOE drop in interest rates, BOE committee announcement yesterday about the recession and this morning Germany announcing that they were officially in a recession. By the way its three months not two and the UK has shrunk for two months and we are waiting to see what happens for the third. As I said before I'm no expert but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck its normally a duck.

Tomorrow other countries from the EU will give there statements which are not expected to be very good so we will see what happens then. The good news from the US is that the government will not buy any more bad loans and has decided, like the UK, to buy shares in banks instead this appears to have helped the dollar to rally. Mind you thats not much good for those here.

I see the rate is now 1.1784 (edit - sorry missed the '1' out) and still going down. I personally can't see it getting to parity but I can see it getting to 1.10 or 1.11, we are only talking 6 or 7 cents now, something I take no pleassure in saying.

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[quote user="Quillan"]

As I said before I'm no expert but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck its normally a duck.

[/quote]

Clearly you haven't met my sister in law: get a couple of drinks inside her and she'd pass for a mallard any time.

I can no longer worry about the rates. In fact, now that I've stopped worrying I've just developed a horrid fascination with the whole thing. Perhaps we should hold a sweepstake on what the low point will be between now and midnight December 31st. All stake money in euros though, not in funny money from the Consolidated Bank of Toytown.

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[quote user="allanb"][quote user="Bugbear"]I have a different view, if thats OK with you, of course.

The recent financial collapse events regarding comments made that resulted in a rate drop are pretty clear to both me, and many others.
[/quote]Of course you are entitled to any view you like. 

But when two things happen, it is still a fallacy to conclude that one must have caused the other.  Have you considered that the fall might have taken place anyway?
[/quote] So it's not related alanb that whenever Mervyn opens his mouth my pension drops? Charlie.
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[quote user="TefkaC"][quote user="allanb"][quote user="Bugbear"]I have a different view, if thats OK with you, of course.

The recent financial collapse events regarding comments made that resulted in a rate drop are pretty clear to both me, and many others.

[/quote]Of course you are entitled to any view you like. 

But when two things happen, it is still a fallacy to conclude that one must have caused the other.  Have you considered that the fall might have taken place anyway?

[/quote] So it's not related alanb that whenever Mervyn opens his mouth my pension drops? Charlie.[/quote]

All make a note in your diaries for November 24 and see who is proven right.   [6]

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/markets-companies-and-funds/content.aspx?ID=320911&re=4148&ea=161021&Page=1

Sorry you'll have to cut and paste.

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