Exchange rate

[Quillan]

Well there you go I just got my pension pot account and I never listen to myself and I opened it. Well they say your in for the long hall and don't worry because it will come right by the time you retire. Well I hope so because this year to date it has lost nearly 8% and guess what, I'm told mines done better than most so to consider myself lucky. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking the company or the person that deals with me, in fact I guess, if what I am told is correct, that I should thank them for their damage limitation. Does anyone know the drop percentage wise in the FTSE this year, I googled it and came up with just over 36% but it looked more like a guess than actual.

[Pierre ZFP]

36% fall in the FTSE 100 is about right.

Here's a quick bit of analysis of some markets.  The FTSE has come off better than most

Exchange    52 wk high    Today   %  fall (rounded)

FTSE 100	6500	4125	37
DAX	8076	4475	45
CAC 40	5750	3087	46
Dow	13727	8376	39
NASDAQ	2724	1445	47

 

 

[Quillan]

So it looks like I have done reasonably well all thing considered. I can't help thinking about those people who are about to buy their pension, all those years working and saving [:(] .

[Scooby]

Its definitely going to get worse before it gets better.  Banks still don't know the extent of their exposure to the likes of Lehmans and then there's the cost of contributions to the FSCS.  The building society sector has been totally screwed  - they've lent on a prudent basis but are having to deal with the ripples of the banking sector collapse and pick up the tab for the 'government's' rescue plan.

[Quillan]

You know I have been wondering ever since I watched this film that we were given the link too which basically says that savings have no role to play in banking (which must be right, an expert made it), its lending money that makes more money by recycling but then its not really physical money at all [8-)] . I mean it did make sense and was explained well I thought.

After thinking on it for a couple of days and then of what happened to Northern Rock where I was under the impression that they nearly went under because people were queuing up outside to take their savings/money out. And then yesterday HSBC said it would be lending more money out in 2009 because it has received heavy deposits from Asia. Just these two events seem to indicate to me anyway, that savings do have an effect on the amount of money lent unless somebody can explain, in simple terms, where I have gone wrong. So basically I have now changed my mind about the film and gone back to my original position about savings.

Seems the Euro will stay around the 1.15 area for some time then as it seems to be the point it wants to be for the moment.

You know I have been reading the newspapers over the last week and none of them have the answer. They seem to paste a load of ideas as to what could happen to a darts board and throw darts at it and then print the one they hit. To be honest I don't think anyone really knows and its either guesswork or wishful thinking.

I see another forum member has asked where to put their money and no doubt later on will ask about whats the best time to move the money in to Euros, shall I wait or shall I jump etc. I think its a little unfair to ask this question of us, a bunch of amateurs, they should really get professional help. Mind you I can also see the persons quandary as I have now come to the conclusion that the experts really don't have a clue either and people in this situation would be better off reading tealeaves, visiting a palmist of simply tossing a coin, they would probably get better advice. [;-)]

[WJT]

I agree with you Quillan. If you have ever watched the gambling program "Deal or No Deal", asking advice about the exchange rate in my opinion is similar to the contestant asking the opinions of the other contestants if they should carry on or not.

Your example of HSBC is interesting. Perhaps things are slowly changing, however, who is to say the deposits from Asia that you mentioned aren't just promissory notes or debts from others (albeit hopefully sound ones) or do you think it an actual commodity such as gold that is going in the safe deposits at HSBC?

[Quillan]

I don't know exactly where HSBC are getting there money from, after a quick punt around the Internet I can only find THIS which does not actually say Asia although I definitely heard it said on TV.

You could invest in Parsnips, there's always a market for them at Christmas especially in France amongst the Brits [:D] . I grew some a few years back and got a Euro each for them at Christmas.

I like the 'Deal or No Deal' equivalent by the way, probably more close than you know.

[AnOther]

According to the film it's savings which start the ball rolling and it seems to me that in the current unprecedented crisis we are virtually back to square one which tends to add credence to my comment that savings are what we need.

[woolybanana]

I wonder whether the giving of financial advice online in the way several posters have been doing is not a tad illegal or doies that only apply if they have been paid.

[velcorin]

There are several actions occurring at the same time (corporate, investment and commercial), but at it’s simplest.

In the UK the link between banks taking money from depositors, and lending to borrowers, has been irrevocably broken by the growth of pension funds, never to be fixed. “Savings” (roughly 10% PA) are now channelled into pension providers, the banks then borrow money from them, and pay a premium for the privilege, previously that money would have been deposited directly with them. The graph of pension savings, and the banks’ funding gap, are inverses of each other.

HSBC is somewhat different, it’s main centre of operations is the Far East where, with the exception of Japan, people still save what little money they have in a bank to provide for their old age. HSBC is simply transferring some of their trillions back to the UK.

I actually do have the tiniest, tiniest modicum of sympathy for UK banks as no one seems to want to answer the question “where’s all the money gone?” Well, thanks to Blessed Saint Maggie Thatcher it’s all in pensions, not in the banks. The banks had to make up the funding shortfall, and pay the pension funds their pound of flesh for lending money to them. Eventually the plates stopped spinning---Credit Crunch.

As regards Northern Rock, I think it was bizarre, and maybe something of a generational responce. Today corporate depositors and internet banking customers remove tens of billions at the touch of a keyboard, queuing for hours to take out seems to me as anchronistic as mangles on wash day!

 

I deal mainly with German, French and Swiss banks, and they have got no excuse, for getting in a mess. They were JUST greedy. Who bought most of the dodgy US sub-prime mortgages? The Swiss and the Germans. Who dreamt up the Structured Investment Vehicles that were supposed to hedge against potential losses? The French.

They were the first hit, and the hardest hit, by the Sub-Prime Crisis. It was the Credit Crunch which hit the UK banks hardest.

[WJT]

Personally don't see a problem with it at all. If someone asks for opinions and people give it, doesn't mean the advice is taken but perhaps a good start for research purposes to see what people in similar circumstances are doing with their own money at the moment. I'm not sure if I would trust any advice at the moment including (perhaps even less so) if I paid for it.

Getting back to the exchange rate, this certainly won't help.[:(]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20081209/tuk-brown-putting-pound-at-risk-dba1618.html

Edit: Velcorin slipped in there, my response was to WBanana. [:)]

[WJT]

That is very interesting Velcorin, I would have never known it was the French that dreamt up the Structured Investment Vehicles. All we hear is that the French banks have been more prudent in their lending. Just hope the UK can get out of this mess.

[Albert the InfoGipsy]

[quote user="velcorin"]

As regards Northern Rock, I think it was bizarre, and maybe something of a generational responce. Today corporate depositors and internet banking customers remove tens of billions at the touch of a keyboard, queuing for hours to take out seems to me as anchronistic as mangles on wash day![/quote]

Quite simply, if you want to remove your money 'at the touch of a keyboard' you need access. Northern Rock's Web banking was either overwhelmed or throttled so for most people it was impossible to get at their money electronically.

[Quillan]

Somebody said they need the depositors money to pay for the day to day stuff like when people want to draw money out over the counter or from ATM's. If they don't have that money then they can't give any out, people then loose confidence in the bank.

I think the 'specialists' are saying "no your wrong it's like this or like that" is because they don't have a clue whats going on either. The only thing I will say however is that on the 28th Nov I predicted that the GPB/Euro rate will settle around 1.16 for a while. Looking at the historical charge since then I have not been that far out as an average. Mind you perhaps it was a lucky guess because I still can't get the winning lotto numbers and god knows I have tried.

Actually thinking about it if you have £22k (think that's right) you wouldn't go far wrong in buying as many Premium Bonds as you can. Its more unusual not to have a win if you have that amount of money invested, I can tell you that from personal experience.

[Pierre ZFP]

Premium bonds no longer a good bet I fear

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7759110.stm

 

[velcorin]

Point conceded Albert. I hadn't considered the issue of site overload.

[Scooby]

Retail deposits (savings) are a required proportion of capital but an expensive portion.  Wholesale funding (bank to bank lending) and the issue of mortgage backed securities (MBS) are a much cheaper source of funds.  These MBS's are largely bought by institutional investors (i.e. pension funds) - hence the comment above about banks relying on pension funds rather than savers.

[gosub]

The following quote is from Currencies Direct I received it in an email yesterday.

""Hi Everyone,

Sterling Euro hit 1.1435 just now an all time low. Feeling out there from

bank dealers is it may test 1.10.

Regards

Kevin"

[AnOther]

[quote user="WJT"]That is very interesting Velcorin, I would have never known it was the French that dreamt up the Structured Investment Vehicles. All we hear is that the French banks have been more prudent in their lending. Just hope the UK can get out of this mess.[/quote]Not forgetting of course that as long ago as Aug 07 it was BNP Paribas who were amongst the first to "block withdrawals from some investment funds because of a "complete evaporation" of liquidity"

How wrong the author of that article was in his conclusions [:'(]

[Cat]

[quote user="gosub"]The following quote is from Currencies Direct I received it in an email yesterday.

""Hi Everyone,

Sterling Euro hit 1.1435 just now an all time low. Feeling out there from bank dealers is it may test 1.10.

Regards

Kevin"

[/quote]

We may not have to wait long, it's showing between  1.11 and 1.13 at the moment [:-))]

http://www.4xcurrency.com/4xcc/live_rates.shtm

[Quillan]

Cat, these are dealer rates and not exchange rates, at the time I took these readings your site says sell - 1.1161 buy - 1.1721 and actual rate is 1.1432. Having a higher buy rate is quite normal. Basically they are making around 6 cents out of every buy and sell per Euro, it's how theu make money. If you look at Travelex they are selling a 1.10 and the best high street one I saw was 1.12 but you had to buy 7 days in advance.

 

[dragonrouge]

I live in France and one of our neighbours is a part time resident here but of US/Canadian background and a currency dealer.  Whilst the local bar is not the best place to have a sensible discussion he said that in his view the market would push and push £ down and continue to do so.  Then when they have stripped it of its worth they will move on.  A local artisan was there at the same time and he said his order book had now collapsed and he could see May 2009 and the Brits nor the French were there and he was having a good holiday at Xmas but then starting to lay people off.

He also said that the lotissements had dried up and the artisans there were moving into the more domestic market place.

Where is all of this going to end.

Like so many others I am depressed and had organised things that 1.11 would be just ok but so tight anything less then its madness and hurting beyond belief.

 

 

[Just Chris]

I see it's down to 1.1372 this evening, though channel 4 insisted it was 1.372.  They seem to have got into the habit of leaving off an all important "1" on occasions...

Chris

[suein56]

[quote user="Quillan"]

Cat, these are dealer rates and not exchange rates ...[/quote]

These are real ie live exchange rates for 4x - but you have to have signed up with them to be able to benefit ...  and to be thinking of transferring about £20K - so they are definitely not tourist rates. The only 'good' tourist rate I have come across for relatives visiting us is Thomson but, even then, £2000 is the realistic amount needing to be changed to achieve a good rate.

Sue

[Quillan]

The real rate is called the 'mid market' rate to which dealers like 4X, HiFX, Money Corp etc calculate their buy and sell rates from by adding in their profit and running costs. These are the type of companies you might go to when you move large amounts of money around to buy a house in another country for example.

Other companies that exchange money at airports, on the ferry plus banks, post offices etc use what is more commonly known as 'the tourist rate' which is even more expensive. You probably wouldn't use them for buying a house although with some banks you might be able to negotiate a better rate if you are moving large amounts about.

In the past I have at times been able to negotiate a better rate from a high street French bank than any other place and as such moved my money in Sterling and had it exchanged in the French bank. As I said it has worked a couple of times but not every time. Fortunately I moved all my money to France several years back and whilst I might not have got the best interest rates I would have lost a lot more if I had kept it in the UK and wanted the money now. Still that's another story for a different thread.