Jump to content

Will the euro crash in 2011


Devon
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 556
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

This is by way of a personal anecdote but it's come from a family member with property in Sardinia.

The gardener whom the family member employs part-time has said he is now able to do more private work.  The reason?  Having worked for the council for 25 years, he is now only required to work 2 days a week for his public sector employer but still gets his full-time pay.

And people in the UK always grouse about the generosity of welfare benefits! (not that they don't have a point as well, but only in some special cases) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[:D]

No comment!

ITALIAN BOND ISSUE TUESDAY
APPROACHES 8%

RTRS-ITALIAN 3.5 BLN EURO NOV 2014 BTP BOND AUCTION GROSS YIELD 7.89 PCT

RTRS-ITALIAN 3.5 BLN EURO NOV 2014 BTP BOND AUCTION BID-TO-COVER RATIO 1.502

RTRS-ITALIAN 2.5 BLN EURO MARCH 2022 BTP BOND AUCTION GROSS YIELD 7.56 PCT

RTRS-ITALIAN 2.5 BLN EURO MARCH 2022 BTP BOND AUCTION BID-TO-COVER RATIO 1.335

RTRS-ITALIAN 1.499 BLN EURO SEPT 2020 BTP BOND AUCTION GROSS YIELD 7.28 PCT

RTRS-ITALIAN 1.499 BLN EURO SEPT 2020 BTP BOND AUCTION BID-TO-COVER RATIO 1.538

Meanwhile TESCO BOND ISSUE

RTRS-TESCO PLC <TSCO.L> – ANNOUNCES LAUNCH, PRICING OF US$ BOND ISSUE IN 2-TRANCHES COMPRISING 3-YEAR AND 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES

RTRS-TESCO PLC <TSCO.L> – NOTES CONSIST OF US$500 MILLION AGGREGATE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT PAYING INTEREST AT 2.00% PER ANNUM

RTRS-TESCO PLC <TSCO.L> – THE OTHER IS US$500 MN AGGREGATE AMOUNT PAYING INTEREST AT 2.70% PER ANNUM, AND MATURING ON 5 JANUARY 2017.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Jako"]The need for a  "will the pound crash in 2012" topic might come soon...

Anyone read the tulletprebon project armageddon  (click) report?

[/quote]

Possibly the most bizarrely written piece of "research" I've ever read, and I read hundreds of them! Politicised, personalised, dramatic, only uses uncheckable in-house "data", no references, written like cheap thriller. Binned.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="breizh"]3 Key dates.

Jan 9. France has to borrow EUR 29billion

Jan 30. Italy has to borrow EUR 32billion

Feb 28. Italy has to borrow EUR 46billion

Very scary, considering what happened last week when Germany failed to get EUR 6billion!!

I doubt the Dwarf will sleep well over Noel.[/quote]

References?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seemed to include a lot of commonsense to me. Frankly, I tend to take most data with a pinch of salt as I know from experience that you can use data to back up any result you want to push. Gordon Brown no doubt had pet economists proving he was right....

I want someone to spell it out in reasoned but graphic terms. It's just a pity that we don't have leaders who can really inspire the mass of the people and make them see that things have to change dramatically. I am fed up with hearing "when the economy picks up again" as if it is something that will happen automatically. Why should it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's taken me a while to read this report and digest it. You know it's going to be bad when on the first page it says "The general public are probably unaware of the true scale of Britain’s debts.". The sad thing is when they asked a load of MP's across all parties they were as well.

One of the biggest problems in the UK, and it's been around for years, is the ability to point at other people or countries saying something along the lines of "If you think the UK is bad then look at.....". The current thing is to blame the EU and the Euro for just about everything including probably when the bog roll runs out in the toilet. In reality the UK is like two guys standing beside a car on a hill discussing the benefits and pitfalls of having a handbrake in cars whilst it rolls of down the hill in to a brick wall.

The other issue of course is what to do and what needs to be done and the great reluctance of politicians to actually really deal with the problem instead of simply applying plasters all over the place. Any party who is brave enough to seriously tackle to problems, and not just in the UK, know they will never get back in to power probably for a generation.

So what is the answer? Well I said, almost jokingly, some time back is to default on the loans. If all countries did this then effectively (especially when you consider the chart somebody gave a link to about who owes what to whom) we would all be back to square one and we all both win and loose but everyone should be left with nothing to pay. Perhaps this might happen in the unlikelihood of the Euro failing, which, by the way I still don't think will happen but it will take all the other currencies with it if it does and will probably mean everyone defaulting.

As to the report well the authors really don't like G Brown do they but then who does.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Quillan"]

So what is the answer? Well I said, almost jokingly, some time back is to default on the loans. If all countries did this then effectively (especially when you consider the chart somebody gave a link to about who owes what to whom) we would all be back to square one and we all both win and loose but everyone should be left with nothing to pay.

[/quote]

Twas me.  Here it is again for those that missed it.  It looks like we are all in debt but with the exception of a few we are owed as much as we owe.

Really useful easy to use graph of the worlds debts, how much and to whom they owe.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Jon 1"][quote user="breizh"]3 Key dates. Jan 9. France has to borrow EUR 29billion Jan 30. Italy has to borrow EUR 32billion Feb 28. Italy has to borrow EUR 46billion Very scary, considering what happened last week when Germany failed to get EUR 6billion!! I doubt the Dwarf will sleep well over Noel.[/quote] References?[/quote]

http://www.economist.com/node/21540259

The only free one I could find.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for link.

Bought back memories of " el corralito" and "patacones".

In fact used much earlier than 2001.

The periphery provinces already suffered liquidity problems in the 80s, paid regularly 2000 miners in bonos de la provincia de jujuy during this period. Kept the local economy ticking over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing the Brits should thank Gordon Brown for..............(YES!)..................he borrowed long term, very long. France is on average 3.2 years. UK 17.8 years. So, into the current mealstrom, and frozen credit markets. France has to borrow 480billion next year. UK.........186billion.

Gordon Brown stepped away from the "cheap, easy" money, available in the good times, and thought long term. Unfortunately Mde Legrande didn't, and b*ggered France. Guess who is vilified? Guess who is the boss of the IMF?[:)]

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="pachapapa"]

Thanks for link.

Bought back memories of " el corralito" and "patacones".

In fact used much earlier than 2001.

The periphery provinces already suffered liquidity problems in the 80s, paid regularly 2000 miners in bonos de la provincia de jujuy during this period. Kept the local economy ticking over.

[/quote]

Having read (attempted to read) a number of PPP's posts over some time, I am confused. Whilst this tends to be an English language forum I can, to some extent, cope with French, but.....PPP continues to quote a different language - Spanish ????? Why?????
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="powerdesal"][quote user="pachapapa"]

Thanks for link.

Bought back memories of " el corralito" and "patacones".

In fact used much earlier than 2001.

The periphery provinces already suffered liquidity problems in the 80s, paid regularly 2000 miners in bonos de la provincia de jujuy during this period. Kept the local economy ticking over.

[/quote] Having read (attempted to read) a number of PPP's posts over some time, I am confused. Whilst this tends to be an English language forum I can, to some extent, cope with French, but.....PPP continues to quote a different language - Spanish ????? Why?????[/quote]

I suggest you read again the link http://www.economist.com/node/21540259 supplied by breizh in which the situation in the province of buenos aires in the year 2001 is described.[I]

The following paragraph copied and pasted from the article in the economist gives the tenor of the point.

When cash is scarce, such scrip is readily accepted by tradesmen. In August 2001 the Argentine province of Buenos Aires issued $90m of small bills, known as patacones, to employees as part of their pay. The bills were soon circulating freely: McDonalds even offered a “Patacombo” menu in exchange for a $5 pata c ón. Argentina broke its supposedly irrevocable currency peg to the dollar a few months later

I shll try in future not to refer to esoteric terms in the economist magazine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd hope that any descendants wouldn't curse me, but rather the governments who have created this situation. Those of us in 'norrmal' jobs just got on with it, paid our tax, NI, mortgage, council tax etc etc and in our case put aside what we could for the future. What I fear is whether that money is now safe (in euros). Would it be better in sterling or is there nothing to choose between them?

What would happen if the euro crashes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whilst I agree governments should have done more to restrict the supply of easy money, democratic governments pander to the electorate. It is largely the result of ordinary people borrowing more than was sensible to satisfy desires for home ownership, new cars and flat screen TV that has created the problem.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Pommier"]

I'd hope that any descendants wouldn't curse me, but rather the governments who have created this situation. Those of us in 'norrmal' jobs just got on with it, paid our tax, NI, mortgage, council tax etc etc and in our case put aside what we could for the future. What I fear is whether that money is now safe (in euros). Would it be better in sterling or is there nothing to choose between them?

What would happen if the euro crashes?

[/quote]

You would get a situation similar to the situation in argentina in the period around 2001 when the country welched on its foreign debt.

There was strict control on access to bank accounts with a maximum of 50 currency units per day; in addition it was impossible to purchase any foreign currency unless validated travel tickets were produced, even to neighbouring countries like brazil. These serious constraints were called the "corralito" by the argentines. It might serve as an indication why when one considers the cowboy phrase for a corral in relation to horses...the "ito" suffix indicating the diminutive.

Think V form foreign currency allowance 1960s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure Angela Sarkozy have seen anything yet. The Swedes, Brits, Danes are going to want their pound of flesh.

As soon as they start amending treaties the genie is well and truly out the bottle, and the law of unintended consequences comes into play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...