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Will the euro crash in 2011


Devon
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[quote user="pachapapa"][quote user="Quillan"][quote user="pachapapa"]

"Le french flair ne se trompe pas, jamais![:-))]

Have a nice day Quillan!

[/quote]

What stupid thing to say on this thread. If you want to start a thread on the Rugby World Cup then there is a sports section where such a post would be far more applicable.

[/quote]

Dont know what came over me posting on the wrong thread. Try not to do it again.

Must have lapsed into another attack of "cabin fever".

But on the hole I've had a very very nice day.

[/quote]

What "hole" would that be p?

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[quote user="sweet 17"]

[quote user="Jay"]
What "hole" would that be p?
[/quote]

The one where he's got to stop digging.

[/quote]

Quite right busy putting in the timber for a mezzanine in the barn, the holes from the original loft are lower than the proposed floor.

Particularly awkward one today adjacentto new hole position requiring support before excavation at new position could proceed.

But on the whole going well, two weeks ahead of schedule.

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[quote user="sweet 17"]And those so-called frogs are all over England![/quote]

Dont worry about mollifying "frogs" as in "so called frogs".

I do appreciate that on this forum the PC dyed in the wool tenets and mantras are influenced by the local academy of poitiers representative and little englanders accustomed to a short annual migration.

BUT the big wide world outside enjoys the humour of the frog association, one only has to watch celebrating french rugby team supporters with frog hats, full frog outfits and other ingenious frog motifs to see how much they enjoy the joke.

The film last night, quite good I recorded it on hard disk, entitled I love Périgord was replete with frog allusions, particularly during the introduction.

Relax enjoy france, the frogs dont buy into all this "harvest festival " PC excreeement.[:)]

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Oh, Ab, that sounds positively painful![:-))]

I watched the film after you recommended it, Pacha, and yes, it was quite funny.  I loved the shot where he lifted up his knife from the duck and it just dripped duck fat![:D]

Euro might or might not crash but I think that it's the banks and building societies that you need to keep an eye on! (there, stuck to topic, did't I?[:P])

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  • 4 weeks later...

[quote user="Joe"]The gloom and doom merchants are saying the euro is going to fall.With Italy now in dire straits,what does the future hold I wonder?[/quote]

Based solely on previous experience, the € will strengthen, weaken or stay the same or all of them but not necessarily on the same day. What will be, will be. We have chosen to live in Euroland, cannot easily sell up and move on (even if we wanted to) so will grin/grimace and bear it.

Far more importantly, will AP ride some winners on his first day back?

John

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It looks like Germany and France have thrown in the towel in the effort to keep the present euro zone: from the Guardian.

Reports emerging from Brussels said that Germany and France had begun preliminary talks on a break-up of the eurozone, amid fears that Italy would be too big to rescue.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/09/european-debt-crisis-eurozone-breakup

Our politicians are running around like headless chickens and the best they can up with outside of Germany is to print money, which Germany, quite rightly, will fight at all costs. Funny money got the West into this mess, more of it won't solve the West's main problem: we spend and live beyond our means.

My best guess at the outcome of the present situation is a Northern European zone comprising Germany, France, Holland and Finland.

Belgium could easily break up with one half joining Holland and the other rejoining France in all but name.

I can't see how the remaining countries leaving the Euro could be joined. They need their own currencies back and to default on their debt.

It's going to be an unpleasant couple of years coming up, whatever the outcome.

 

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Hi,

      Sarkozy is frantically trying to push fiscal union with Germany in the hopes that France can qualify for "In" or "Northern" status, when it is becoming more obvious every day that France belongs with the profligate "Out" or "Southern" countries with their unaffordable social benefits and bloated and under- employed public sectors.

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Still way too much.

Especially when you consider UK's financial situation is much worse than Italy's.

Italy                                           UK

Debt 120%                                140% (both including financial sector intervention)

Deficit 2.7%                               10%

Household savings: +500%       -110%

The entire Italian debt could be wiped-out with just one 20% rich-tax.

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Guess the ECB bought them.

It's about time Merkel stopped kowtowing to Kia Diekmann and the political posturing. Get the printing presses running. There is no Plan B. Too late.

Attali thinks France has already lost it's AAA.

http://www.challenges.fr/revue-de-presse/20111110.CHA6721/pour-attali-la-france-a-deja-perdu-sa-note-aaa.html
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Bank intervention is off balance sheet. It is a potential obligation, costed in your figures at a total 100% loss, even Greek debt is worth 29% of face value.

No idea where the "savings" figure comes from, by definition that is unknown, and even it were, it's not some well to be drawn from by politicians.

UK over 55s have net assets 9.4 times final earnings. Property, pensions, savings, cash, shares, etc. Would you endorse politicians taxing them?

The standard ECB Debt method, gives UK debt as 68%, France 82%, Germany 84%, Italy 116%. It is a god given than all countries park future debt obligations off balance sheet, as they are unknowns. France goes one further, and parks Regional/Dept/Commune debt off balance sheet, and all infrastucture projects. Which is naughty, just the SNCF debt takes France over the 100% mark.
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Will it be 2011 or 2012, before Christmas or after Christmas![:)]

The euro seems to be already entering life support, perhaps that should be qualified by saying the strong "tricheur" euro.

The krauts are managing the debacle, ostensibly with the hausfrau as a "leader" with the "dwarf" alias "Il duce" hanging from her coat tails.

The printing press eurofest may be difficult for the german public but the plutocrats will have presumably already included it in the equation.

External eurozone exports can be contracted in an external "hard currency" keeping the german economy on course, whilst internal euro trade will just fit in with the relative euro transfer price of the moment.

But the big loser in all this will be "freedom and democracy", as elected leaders fall by the wayside with inexorable pressure from the markets.  Posterity will perhaps look more sympathetically on the italian buffoon as regimentation and coercion bite.

Indeed the death knell of democracy as we know it, Scotty!

The link below is to the editorial today in the Journal de Haute-Marne, you know it, the dwarf was there yesterday at Colombiers-les-2E.

http://www.jhm.fr/LA-LOI-DES-MARCHES

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[quote user="Benjamin"]The auction of one year debt has resulted in a rate of 6.087%, a long way off the rate of over 7% being bandied about on last night's news programmes.



[/quote]

The highest rate/yield in the last 14 YEARS![:D]

Keep a tight grip on your cloud with a silver lining.

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[quote user="breizh"]Bank intervention is off balance sheet. It is a potential obligation, costed in your figures at a total 100% loss, even Greek debt is worth 29% of face value. [/quote]

You are wrong.

Bank intervention is off balance sheet in the UK only. And they are not potential obligations, but the amount of money borrowed by UK government to prop-up the banks. Interest needs to be paid over the full amount. You can argue that a % will return by selling the part of the banks that the UK now owns. It is not the ECB (irrelevant for the ECB) but Eurostat that allows the UK to keep a certain % off balance sheet. But Eurostat  reported UK debt already at 80% at the end of 2010. (click), not 68%.

It will be at least 90% at the end of 2011, but it might be higher when Eurostats estimate of the % of the bail-outs that will never return to the taxpayer increases due to bad bank results.

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