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Will the euro crash in 2011


Devon
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Hey, guys, here's a bit of distraction for you from all that internecine warfare.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5af4075c-f048-11e0-96d2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1a5WRGYrF

And why is sterling up on last week against the euro?

Why don't you apply yourselves to this instead of squabbling?

Still, if you choose to bite chunks out of each other, who am I to try and stop you?

That's at least 3 questions now so no one can say I don't try to be a peacemaker![:P]

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[quote user="Quillan"]Perhaps they are all bad spellers etc in Sussex? [:P] Never mind he will be back as fast a Google will let him to correct you. [:D][/quote]

No need for university ordination.

I went to a good Preparatory School in Swanage and learnt spelling, punctuation, parsing, etc before my 10th birthday.[:)] 

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Interesting article that, Pacha.

And very interesting for me their talking about when Singapore left the then fairly newly independent Malaysia, taking its money with it.

It was indeed the stronger and more democratic partner of that particular union so that bit of your article did have ressonance (?spelling) with me.

We live in interesting times indeed.  And didn't Mao say that was a sort of "polite" curse you wish your enemies:  May you live in interesting times?

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[quote user="sweet 17"]

Hey, guys, here's a bit of distraction for you from all that internecine warfare.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5af4075c-f048-11e0-96d2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1a5WRGYrF

And why is sterling up on last week against the euro?

Why don't you apply yourselves to this instead of squabbling?

Still, if you choose to bite chunks out of each other, who am I to try and stop you?

That's at least 3 questions now so no one can say I don't try to be a peacemaker![:P]

[/quote]

The US (Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)), strangely, investigated Moody's along with a few other credit rating agencies after the US credit rating was reduced, the investigation stated within days of the US having it's credit rating reduced. The result, would you believe, was that something like ten of these agencies got it wrong. Well there is a surprise, not. To further discredit Standard and Poors they are now accusing them of insider dealing over mortgages prior to their downgrading of the US credit rating. Not sure what they are going to do about Moody's at the moment but you can be sure they will try and rip them to bits as well.

So based on that report and the fact Moody's have downgraded some of the UK banks and in particular RBS Osbourne feels he can sort of say that they, Moody's, don't know what they are talking about and to prove the point wave said report in peoples faces. Of course, with regards to the US, all those nasty communist Chinese chaps (Dagong Global Credit) who had the audacity to downgrade the US credit rating back in November 2010 are the ones that started the US on it's spiral downturn re it's credit rating. They also downgraded the UK from AA- to A+ in May 2011.

One possible reason for the downward drop in Sterling against the Euro is the recent decision by the B of E to start QE2 and 'print' another £75bn to stave off a 'double dip' recession which according to the statement by the B of E after the recent review of interest rates. So interest rates stay the same, a total of £275 bn has been pumped in to the economy and inflation is over double that the government said it should be.

Just goes to show that after all Cameron's finger pointing at the EU people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones or in other words the UK government needs to sort out the problems in the UK economy before it starts telling others what they should, or shouldn't, do.

Some links to recent reports you might find interesting.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1586103/Inflation--Interest-rates--Economic-growth--Unemployment-Latest-statistics.html

and

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15196078

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8532373/Chinese-rating-agency-downgrades-UK-debt.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100008566/leading-chinese-credit-rating-agency-downgrades-usa-bonds/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financial-crime/8777689/US-investigates-insider-trading-prior-to-SandP-credit-rating-downgrade.html

Should keep people occupied reading and digesting that lot.

 

 

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[quote user="pachapapa"]

Recent posts on this thread suggest that ONLY me and Breizh have slight doubts about Bank Deposit Guarantees.

But I see Moody's have now expressed a slight twinge of doubt as to whether the UK government would stand behind their banks if they got into difficulties.

Read PLEASE the second paragraph of the link to reinforce your neuronal retention.[:)]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15211230

[/quote]

No I don't believe the the Fonds is any position to guarantee anything like sufficient, however from a historical perspective(Credit Lyonnaise, Dexia) there is explicit guarantee from the Govn. France has a history of large bank collapses, and reacts the same everytime, and bails them out. Is that clear enough?[:D]

George Osbourne has merely removed the explicit guarantee on UK banks, and replaced it with an implicit guarantee. That was what Moodys are reacting to, it was expected and factored into the share price, hence the small drops in prices. It is also notable that banks such as RBS have already written off 50%+ of their Euro-peripherique sovereign loans. They have already taken their medicine. German and French banks have't done that yet, that is a serious weakness in their capital. Effectively showing as an asset, something which isn't worth half what the bank says it is. The quicker the Dwarf and the Hausfrau face up to this the quicker normality will return. 2 year loans from the ECB is just another sticking plaster. The markets want the wound acknowledge and cauterised, amputated if necessary.

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[quote user="pachapapa"]

At least the germans are planning ahead for the inevitable!

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Ex-BushAdviserGermanyPrintsOldCurrencyinCaseEuroDitched/2011/10/04/id/413225

[/quote]

This rumour has been around for a long time, the last time it 'popped' out in the press was back in April 2010 and Germany denied it. People seem to think you can just dump the Euro and bring back your old currency over night, well it's not that simple. If it took about twelve years to prepare for the Euro then you can bet it's going to take about five just for one country to leave.

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[quote user="Quillan"]

One possible reason for the downward drop in Sterling against the Euro is the recent decision by the B of E to start QE2 and 'print' another £75bn to stave off a 'double dip' recession which according to the statement by the B of E after the recent review of interest rates.

[/quote]

Not strictly true. The BoE agreed to raise the funds available for further bond purchases by GBP75 billion. However, it does not automatically mean they will use those funds.

There is a strange paradox though. When the ECB purchases bonds, currently thought to be around EUR 200billion, with a targetted fund of EUR 2trillion, when the EFSF arrives, no comment is made. Other than the fact that the British press have no interest in Europe, is there a difference?

Sorry, having my Lunch 10 minutes, no time to check.

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A problem with the title of this thread, is how exactly can a "euro crash" be defined?

Greece will probably default by the end of the month. This might be dressed-up as a partial default and Greece might well be made to remain in the euro (the worst of all worlds for Greece).

Would the OP regard this as the "euro crash in 2011'?

I think Greece's action will start an unravelling of the Euro, but whatever happens the eurocrats will maintain nothing significant has happened and it is business as usual.
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Baroin on Dexia gives the impression that France/france will not perhaps stand shoulder to shoulder with Belgium.

Could the dwarf be thinking of short cicuiting EFSF resources to Dexia rather than Greek/greek soverign debt.

http://www.20minutes.fr/economie/801698-mutisme-autorites-francaises-concernant-lavenir-banques

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/07/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7953D520111007

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[quote user="Quillan"][quote user="sweet 17"]

Hey, guys, here's a bit of distraction for you from all that internecine warfare.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5af4075c-f048-11e0-96d2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1a5WRGYrF

And why is sterling up on last week against the euro?

Why don't you apply yourselves to this instead of squabbling?

Still, if you choose to bite chunks out of each other, who am I to try and stop you?

That's at least 3 questions now so no one can say I don't try to be a peacemaker![:P]

[/quote]

The US (Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)), strangely, investigated Moody's along with a few other credit rating agencies after the US credit rating was reduced, the investigation stated within days of the US having it's credit rating reduced. The result, would you believe, was that something like ten of these agencies got it wrong. Well there is a surprise, not. To further discredit Standard and Poors they are now accusing them of insider dealing over mortgages prior to their downgrading of the US credit rating. Not sure what they are going to do about Moody's at the moment but you can be sure they will try and rip them to bits as well.

So based on that report and the fact Moody's have downgraded some of the UK banks and in particular RBS Osbourne feels he can sort of say that they, Moody's, don't know what they are talking about and to prove the point wave said report in peoples faces. Of course, with regards to the US, all those nasty communist Chinese chaps (Dagong Global Credit) who had the audacity to downgrade the US credit rating back in November 2010 are the ones that started the US on it's spiral downturn re it's credit rating. They also downgraded the UK from AA- to A+ in May 2011.

One possible reason for the downward drop in Sterling against the Euro is the recent decision by the B of E to start QE2 and 'print' another £75bn to stave off a 'double dip' recession which according to the statement by the B of E after the recent review of interest rates. So interest rates stay the same, a total of £275 bn has been pumped in to the economy and inflation is over double that the government said it should be.

Just goes to show that after all Cameron's finger pointing at the EU people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones or in other words the UK government needs to sort out the problems in the UK economy before it starts telling others what they should, or shouldn't, do.

Some links to recent reports you might find interesting.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1586103/Inflation--Interest-rates--Economic-growth--Unemployment-Latest-statistics.html

and

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15196078

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8532373/Chinese-rating-agency-downgrades-UK-debt.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100008566/leading-chinese-credit-rating-agency-downgrades-usa-bonds/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financial-crime/8777689/US-investigates-insider-trading-prior-to-SandP-credit-rating-downgrade.html

Should keep people occupied reading and digesting that lot.

 

 

[/quote]

Well now that's a relief...just got a message from Mervyn/mervyn that the whole world changed THREE months ago.

Save me the trouble of wasting time reading all that historical bumph above.

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[quote user="Quillan"]

One possible reason for the downward drop in Sterling against the Euro is the recent decision by the B of E to start QE2 and 'print' another £75bn to stave off a 'double dip' recession which according to the statement by the B of E after the recent review of interest rates. So interest rates stay the same, a total of £275 bn has been pumped in to the economy and inflation is over double that the government said it should be.

[/quote]

What downward drop?  I didn't say that there was a downward drop.  I said, or implied, that I was surprised there was no downward drop.

Last time I looked, it was 1.168, a damn sight higher than when I changed money last Friday morning.  NOT that I'm complaining, a bird in the hand, etc and anyway, I wanted certainty so all next year's bills should be taken care of (barring some catastrophe in our personal lives which, of course, can happen any old time [:-))])

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[quote user="pachapapa"]

Oh! by the way, another chance to watch your favourite trader tomorrow friday.

Hi Everybody! Tomorrow I am being interviewed by Sir David Frost on Al-Jazeera.

At 9 p.m CET.

21:00Frost Over the World
Sir David Frost takes us to the global stage with some of the biggest names in world affairs and entertainment.

[/quote]

I must apologise for an error in the scheduled time slot for the Frost Over The World programme on AJE.

I inadvertently used the AJE time of GMT + 1, but of course we are still in Summe Time which is GMT +2 in the Central European Time Zone.

So folks bne patient it will start at 10 pm CET.

Sorry again for the error.

I must be careful or people will start to think I am an idiot.

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[quote user="sweet 17"]Pacha, I sent you a PM .............to ask for financial advice, of course!  No, that wasn't it.  Can't remember what it's about now but can you please look?[/quote]

At moment enjoying a rare period of idioticy supporting the frogs, so stuck with long nose on plasma screen.[:D]

Will check on Windows Mail after lunch.

Its more secure.[I]

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[quote user="Frederick"]Well some Englishman does not have to worry about a Euro crash .. When it comes to the Euro .... he is 101 million quids worth better off by buying a lottery ticket .[/quote]

Not a propitious use of an indefinite article in the plural.[:-))]

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[quote user="pachapapa"]

[quote user="Frederick"]Well some Englishman does not have to worry about a Euro crash .. When it comes to the Euro .... he is 101 million quids worth better off by buying a lottery ticket .[/quote]

Not a propitious use of an indefinite article in the plural.[:-))]

[/quote] Almost on a par with 'idioticy' http://www.completefrance.com/cs/images/emotions/tongue.gif
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[quote user="pachapapa"]

"Le french flair ne se trompe pas, jamais![:-))]

Have a nice day Quillan!

[/quote]

What stupid thing to say on this thread. If you want to start a thread on the Rugby World Cup then there is a sports section where such a post would be far more applicable.

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[quote user="Quillan"][quote user="pachapapa"]

"Le french flair ne se trompe pas, jamais![:-))]

Have a nice day Quillan!

[/quote]

What stupid thing to say on this thread. If you want to start a thread on the Rugby World Cup then there is a sports section where such a post would be far more applicable.

[/quote]

Dont know what came over me posting on the wrong thread. Try not to do it again.

Must have lapsed into another attack of "cabin fever".

But on the hole I've had a very very nice day.

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