Will the euro crash in 2011

[krusty]

Quote "Strategists at JP Morgan said: "The endgame on European monetary union is approaching fast." Julian Callow, chief Europe economist at Barclays Capital, added: "September is likely to be a defining month for the euro area's destiny."

Sir Howard Davies, the former deputy governor of the Bank of England, added: "I think it is all over for Greece now."

scotsman

[pachapapa]

Le dogue.

A faithful hound, the french local communes best friend!

Partenaire du développement local

Dexia concentre ses activités de Public & Wholesale Banking sur la Belgique et la France, ses deux marchés historiques.

Spécialiste du développement local, la banque accompagne les collectivités, les acteurs publics et parapublics dans la réalisation de leurs projets grâce à une gamme complète de solutions bancaires et financières dédiées.

Dexia intervient également dans le domaine du Corporate Banking et est un expert reconnu en financement de projet.

http://www.dexia.com/FR/le_groupe/publications/Pages/brochure_fr/index.html#/24/

[6]

[Jako]

It did not make the news in the UK, but reliable sources in the Netherlands say that the Netherlands in conjunction with Germany are secretly preparing for an orderly Greek default. If Greece does not meet its targets for the next bailout, they will pull the trigger.  It will be up to the Greeks to either stay in the Eurozone or not. But Greece will be ringfenced to prevent contagion. A 50% haircut is expected and this will trigger an 'event' so the CDS's will have to pay up. (insurance against a Greek default). So far it is unknown who has insured what for whom,  but it is  likely that a significant part will end up in the City.

[NickP]

Very interesting Jako, but as I only speak English, any chance of a translation? It's bad enough trying to keep up with PPP.

[Jay]

About time some of those Greeks had a haircut.

[pachapapa]

[quote user="NickP"]Very interesting Jako, but as I only speak English, any chance of a translation? It's bad enough trying to keep up with PPP.[/quote]

CDS Credit Default Swop.

haircut..lender loses in this case 50% of his investment.

The rest is non-acronymic english.[:P]

[Jay]

"ringfenced" is not English, at least not in my dictionary.

Your round.

[pachapapa]

[quote user="Jay"]"ringfenced" is not English, at least not in my dictionary.

Your round.
[/quote]

Really!  Your Sir John likes it more than chinese walls.

The ringfencing outlined by Sir John Vickers's independent commission report on banking is intended to insulate high street banking businesses from their riskier investment banking arms.

[;-)]

[Jako]

Well, it is in this Wiktionary and the definition is explained here: ringfence .

New regulations that are designed by the ECB to protect the Eurozone from problems in the City don't go down well in the UK. (click).

[pachapapa]

Christine gives dwarf moral support:[:P]

                                                    The global economy is facing a crisis of confidence worsened by ‘policy indecision and political dysfunction,’ according to Christine Lagarde

[pachapapa]

Christine sounds off, "Loud & Clear".[8-|]

“Implement and you get the next payment,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on CNBC yesterday. “Time is running short and the Greek authorities have to deliver.”

Heartening words for the courageous dwarf whilst he puts the european tax payer in "hock" for the next 10 years.[:(]

[Jako]

The funny part is that the US is the biggest contributor to the IMF. When the IMF does not clear the next payment, Greece will default.

That triggers claims by all parties that have insured themselves against a Greek default. (French, German banks etc).

The largest holder is AIG that was bankrupted by the fall of Lehman Brothers but was rescued by the US treasury and the FED  with $180 billion. AIG will again be unable to pay out this insurance claim. So the US treasury is on the hook for many billions of Euro's one way or the other.

Via AIG when Greece defaults and via the IMF when Greece does not default.

The difference is that Greece/Europe will have to pay back the IMF, but not AIG.[:)]

Now why would Timothy Geitner be in Poland right now?

[Devon]

Now even the Pro-European media are coming to the conclusion the European dream is in tatters, from a Guardian editorial:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/18/euro-crisis-spears-nuclear

 

Put bluntly, the eurozone has neither the structures nor the protocol nor the will to go nuclear. That would mean a co-ordinated effort to sort out the continent's banks – closing down some and nationalising others. While this is happening, the governments of southern Europe need to write off a huge portion of their loans and get some kind of credit to reflate their stricken economies. In essence, this would be doing what Britain did in 2008-09 – but across 17 countries, some of them broke. The hurdles to such a rescue are so huge that it is hard to imagine such a plan ever being put into action. But that is what going nuclear would mean; anything short of that now will probably not stop the euro from collapsing.

 

 

[pachapapa]

For one awful moment I thought you meant nuclear fissioning not humble nucleation.[:)]

[Quillan]

[quote user="Devon"]

Now even the Pro-European media are coming to the conclusion the European dream is in tatters, from a Guardian editorial:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/18/euro-crisis-spears-nuclear

 

Put bluntly, the eurozone has neither the structures nor the protocol nor the will to go nuclear. That would mean a co-ordinated effort to sort out the continent's banks – closing down some and nationalising others. While this is happening, the governments of southern Europe need to write off a huge portion of their loans and get some kind of credit to reflate their stricken economies. In essence, this would be doing what Britain did in 2008-09 – but across 17 countries, some of them broke. The hurdles to such a rescue are so huge that it is hard to imagine such a plan ever being put into action. But that is what going nuclear would mean; anything short of that now will probably not stop the euro from collapsing.

[/quote]

Yes quit right I mean it's collapsed to 1.147 Euros to the pound, a pretty big drop. [:P] When it gets to 1.40 to the pound wake me up, when it gets back to 1.67 then I will get a bit twitchy.

[pachapapa]

But then again, interesting that the Group Siemens has withdrawn a sumof € 500 million from a French Bank due to apparently doubts about it's solvability.[:P]

http://www.cbanque.com/actu/25763/siemens-a-retire-500-m-eur-une-banque-francaise-inquiet-de-sa-solvabilite

Dwarf Baiting!

[pachapapa]

Gets better and better the hausfrau and the nain after orchestrating expenditure cuts and tax increases have now managed to conjure up 1.3 TRILLION EUROS to recapitalise the banks and convince everybody that nothing stinks in the state of denmark!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-being-prepared.html#dsq-content

[pachapapa]

And Sunday Morning with the spectre of a 50% greek haircut on the horizon rumours of a froggy bank refinancing package cooked up by Bercy.

What BNP Paribas seems to decline the kind offer! Oh I see we have to get in line for a rights issue!![:D]

[Rabbie]

[quote user="pachapapa"]

Gets better and better the hausfrau and the nain after orchestrating expenditure cuts and tax increases have now managed to conjure up 1.3 TRILLION EUROS to recapitalise the banks and convince everybody that nothing stinks in the state of denmark!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-being-prepared.html#dsq-content

[/quote]Didn't realise that Denmark was in the Eurozone[:)] I have always found It to be a very clean and pleasant country with no unpleasant odours[:D]

[Sprogster]

Denmark is not in the Eurozone, as its currency is the Krona.

[pachapapa]

[quote user="Sprogster"]Denmark is not in the Eurozone, as its currency is the Krona.[/quote]

Just an allusion to Rosencrantz & Guildenstern.

Sorry to knot your Y fronts.[:)]

[pachapapa]

The dwarf spouts...il faut ajouter la régulation sociale», a-t-il déclaré!!!!

Now he's got me worried, pulling the moral rectitude card, flipped his lid away with the fairies.

I shall have nightmares now about the euro.

[pachapapa]

No: I wont have nightmares.[:)]

A popular video stream today on the Spanish Media.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt4d7EAlwCg&feature=related

[Quillan]

This is a war between the Dollar and the Euro, one will survive and the other will go to the wall as an international trading currency. All this sort of ranting is take peoples eyes of the US where things are as bad or worse in some states than Greece, Spain and Portugal combined. Have a look around on the US news networks, it seems Illinois on it's own has bigger depts that Greece, Callifornia and New York State also have similar problems. Lets not forget only weeks ago the US nearly defaulted on it's loans were in not down to a last hour vote to effectivly print more money which resulted in their credit rating being dropped.

As for Goldman Sachs ruling the world well lets see, they have just announced a 3% cut in jobs with over a thousand jobs going in the US alone. Also, if this sort of comment is correct why did France and Germany have really good gains on their stock markets yesterday rather than everything collapsing around their ears and why has the Euro not collapsed aganst the Dollar and the Pound, I mean if these people are correct then you would be getting around 2 Euros for every pound and about three for every Dollar. The other thing also is if anyone is unfortunate enough to have a US pension then they may in the future be in trouble as many are "terribly under water".

 

Sources

US Has More Serious Problems Than Europe: Jim Rogers

Goldman Sachs is ramping up its cost cutting programme

 Finally was the interview in your link real?

Alessio Rastani, who claimed on BBC News channel 'I dream of another recession', alleged to be member of the 'Yes Men'

[pachapapa]

Sorry too busy to reply in the middle of a fibonacci series time & price analysis.

 http://goo.gl/emEiq