Jump to content

Will the euro crash in 2011


Devon
 Share

Recommended Posts

[quote user="Daft Doctor"]I think the Swiss Franc is the huge winner at the moment, down to 1.09 to the euro and 1.25 to the pound, thats a 15% increase in value against both in 3 months!!  Pity I don't have a Swiss bank account, and hindsight.........    What the betting it will reach parity with the euro???[/quote]

Last year after an acrimonious closure of an account with ****** Private Banking in Helvetia, I moved from USD into CHF on the advice of my financial adviser. Chatting with her a couple of weeks ago, on short term prospects, she suggested buying a kilo bar of gold! Smart girl.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 556
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

[quote user="sweet 17"]R-R, that's not entirely fair.  Their mountain fortress is enchanting in winter.[/quote]

It can look quite pretty from the other side of the border, I'll admit.

Before we came here I was offered a job in Zug with a trading house out there. The European operation of the American setup I was working for was being moved back to the States and I was looking for another situation, so I went and had a scout. On paper it looked really good - 80% salary hike, 17% income tax, pre-agreed bonus formula, big car, school fees covered, healthcare paid for, all the Toblerone I could eat, etc, etc.

I was there for a couple of days and on the point of signing when I realised just what a tedious, anally-retentive, dump Switzerland was. So I declined the offer and took my chances in France instead.

Financially much poorer; spiritually, infinitely richer.

I might be slightly richer in pecuniary terms if this slide in the Euro contiues, but, myself, I doubt it will go on for long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="The Riff-Raff Element"][quote user="sweet 17"]R-R, that's not entirely fair.  Their mountain fortress is enchanting in winter.[/quote]

It can look quite pretty from the other side of the border, I'll admit.

Before we came here I was offered a job in Zug with a trading house out there. The European operation of the American setup I was working for was being moved back to the States and I was looking for another situation, so I went and had a scout. On paper it looked really good - 80% salary hike, 17% income tax, pre-agreed bonus formula, big car, school fees covered, healthcare paid for, all the Toblerone I could eat, etc, etc.

I was there for a couple of days and on the point of signing when I realised just what a tedious, anally-retentive, dump Switzerland was. So I declined the offer and took my chances in France instead.

Financially much poorer; spiritually, infinitely richer.

I might be slightly richer in pecuniary terms if this slide in the Euro contiues, but, myself, I doubt it will go on for long.
[/quote]

Hmm....I think I could put up with spiritual poverty for the sake of an inflated bank balance, at least for a few years.  Materialistic, moi?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Quillan"]

[quote user="The Riff-Raff Element"][quote user="just john "]anyone noticed the exchange rate . . .[Www][/quote]

I imagine that the practical upshot of all of this will be closer integration within the Eurozone.
[/quote]

And to think not just 6 months past everyone, OK the 'experts' were saying the Eurozone and the EU wouldn't exist within 6 weeks. Mind you that old onion has been popping up on a regular basis for what, three year now?

[/quote]

No it wont crash.

It wont be a financial armageddon.

I will be a financial afghanistan.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="pachapapa"]

[quote user="Daft Doctor"]I think the Swiss Franc is the huge winner at the moment, down to 1.09 to the euro and 1.25 to the pound, thats a 15% increase in value against both in 3 months!!  Pity I don't have a Swiss bank account, and hindsight.........    What the betting it will reach parity with the euro???[/quote]

Last year after an acrimonious closure of an account with ****** Private Banking in Helvetia, I moved from USD into CHF on the advice of my financial adviser. Chatting with her a couple of weeks ago, on short term prospects, she suggested buying a kilo bar of gold! Smart girl.

[/quote]

Three weeks ago the swiss miss was forecasting $ 2000 and what she said about the US economy is not printable.[:)]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="pachapapa"]

Is the position still open?

I know of people in Genève who might be interested.

[/quote]

I doubt that particular vacancy is still open - it was back in 2002. But openings for half-way competent physical oil traders are usually about. There's always some bank or other that gets the idea (in defiance of experience) that they can make a killing in oil on the basis of it being "just like any other commodity" and looks to recruit a few big hitters to help them do it. We used to call this the Santa Claus Syndrome 'cos it always brought us our Christmas bonus. [:)]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Walking past the tele whilst the news was on they were talking about Quantitative Easing Three (sounds like one of these sets of films like Jaws Three). I think perhaps that buying some shares in the company that produces bank note paper might not be such a bad idea. [;-)]
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Salty Sam"][quote user="pachapapa"]

Three weeks ago the swiss miss was forecasting $ 2000 and what she said about the US economy is not printable.[:)]

[/quote]

Shame she didn't advise you  5 years ago when gold was around the £350 - £375/oz.

Coming soon to a shopping centre near you - perhaps!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqWEhwTYUR8&feature=player_detailpage

[/quote]

 The Gordon Brown decision  re gold : http://seekingalpha.com/article/283766-former-u-k-prime-minister-gordon-brown-may-be-responsible-for-gold-bubble

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have seen plenty of IFAs over the years who have said to clients (but without using the exact words of course) "The investment we arranged for you has performed badly so we suggest you sell it now (at a loss) and switch to this one that has done very well (and is now over-priced). And we will get even more commission."
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was in hindsight a mistake that UK legislation forced GB to inform Parliament of the intended gold sale, thereby handing every dealer a gimme short sale. But, thems the breaks.

If you look at the gold price for the previous 25 years, the price achieved was ballpark and allowed diversifaction into currency holdings. In retrospect the increase in purchasing power of middle class India for jewellery, and the development of ever faster processor chips, sent the gold price into the stratosphere. Then the Credit Crunch 1 & (now) 2, sent it into orbit.

Other than having a malfunctioning crystal ball, and the incredible misfortune of not, at the time, having the gift of hindsight, I not sure how you lay this at GB's door.

In hindsight a mistake? Yes. GB's fault? No. Blame UK legislation and Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, etc who all did exactly the same thing at the time. In fact Switzerland sold it's entire gold stock. Everyone was doing it, in retrospect they were idiots too? or just GB? At the time gold was a c*ap investment, and it seemed sensible to diversify government reserves. France bought Renault shares at EUR80, at the same time, now they are worth EUR30, that was their effort at diversification!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Official Gold Holdings as at July 2011 - Top Ten

                      Tonnes    % of reserves*

1 United States 8,133.5        74.7%

2 Germany 3,401.0              71.7%

3 International Monetary Fund  2,814.0

4 Italy 2,451.8                     71.4%

5 France 2,435.4                 66.1%

6 China 1,054.1                    1.6%

7 Switzerland 1,040.1           17.6%

8 Russia 830.5                      7.8%

9 Japan 765.2                       3.3%

10 Netherlands 612.5            59.4%

The UK features at number 17 on the list:           310.3           16.5%

Sweden fell to 26th place:                                  125.7           12.2%

The European Central Bank features at number 12: 502.1       31.3%

 

Source: World Gold Council

With the world's seventh largest reserve of the precious metal, managed by the Swiss National Bank which also conducts Switzerland's monetary policy, Switzerland's supply is worth approximately $58.68 billion in today's gold market

There are some (many perhaps?) who will question Switzerland's origins as to a large part of the yellow metal locked away in the deepest vaults!

You will note therefore breizh, Germany and the Netherlands still feature in the top ten list, and Switzerland has done remarkably well considering it sold its entire gold stock!

Looks like the UK and Sweden were the only ones to get shafted!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Salty Sam"][quote user="pachapapa"]

Three weeks ago the swiss miss was forecasting $ 2000 and what she said about the US economy is not printable.[:)]

[/quote]

Shame she didn't advise you  5 years ago when gold was around the £350 - £375/oz.

Coming soon to a shopping centre near you - perhaps!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqWEhwTYUR8&feature=player_detailpage

[/quote]

And just when in 2006 would have been a propitious moment. By the way the London fixing is in USD.

Were your figures in £s obtained from Northern Trust?[:)]

http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/2006.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="pachapapa"]

And just when in 2006 would have been a propitious moment. By the way the London fixing is in USD.

Were your figures in £s obtained from Northern Trust?[:)]

http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/2006.html

[/quote]

The london fixing may well be in USD, but I can also convert the price from USD to GBP and, a quick look at my investments for the period indicates I chose wisely.

Not my fault you missed out, but there's always tonight's Euro Lottery[;-)]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Salty Sam"][quote user="pachapapa"]

And just when in 2006 would have been a propitious moment. By the way the London fixing is in USD.

Were your figures in £s obtained from Northern Trust?[:)]

http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/2006.html

[/quote]

The london fixing may well be in USD, but I can also convert the price from USD to GBP and, a quick look at my investments for the period indicates I chose wisely.

Not my fault you missed out, but there's always tonight's Euro Lottery[;-)]

[/quote]

Not this week! I only buy ONE TICKET when the prize is more than 100 million €uros.[:)]

Glad to know you once made a profitable investment, albeit 5 years ago.[:)]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="NickP"]

[quote user="Quillan"]See the US has lost it's credit rating then and sterling has started to fall against the Euro (1.15 to 1.14).[/quote]

Q the profit of doom has spoken.

[/quote]

Nick, I LOVE the pun on "prophet".....made me giggle.....[:D]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...