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Anyone seen the exchange rate this morning?


mint
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More talk, though, Benjamin, about deflation in the UK and no interest rates rises until at least 2016.

Going to blow some money on the new kitchen................no, that's really fighting talk; going to sort out a kitchen that isn't going to make me reel at the cost[I]

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The UK it appears has raised its population by 5.000.000  in ten years . We all know where a lot of them have moved from to better themselves . The UK Polish ambassador said  it would be a disaster for his country if the UK pulled out of the EU .Which  raise  the question... How many people in Poland are now better off because of  the money being sent home by those who have moved to the UK  ... And getting better off by the day with the exchange rate  now it would appear .....  I imagine quite a lot .. It appears today the UK has about 700.000 job vacancies on the books....  So masses of  people living  in the EU have fallen on hard times and have looked around to find a place to go for a better life and chosen the UK  , found work, and today there are still 700.000 job vacancies .....Reports of UK growth is looking good for the future and more overseas companies are still wanting to come to the UK now , even after  grave warnings have been given by many that  doom will fall upon them if the UK leave the EU .   I think more and more  people living in the euro zone who expected a better life than they find they have today are not seeing  Brussels capable of giving it to them  ....Who knows what will happen to the Euro ?....... I do not hold a lot of them  or ....like  Mint .....I also would  be worried .

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As Ernie says the fall in 2008 was dramatic whereas this rise has been much slower.

Cannot remember who it was who posted in 2008 that when they calculated whether a move to France was financially viable they used a worst case scenario of the exchange rate was 1.30 euros to the £.

Mind you, even at 1.35 euros to the £ France still seems expensive to the UK.
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[quote user="Frederick"].Who knows what will happen to the Euro ?....... I do not hold a lot of them  or ....like  Mint .....I also would  be worried .

[/quote]

I'm actually not too concerned about my little, very little, stash of euros as I don't plan on moving back to the UK in the near future.

Anyway, those euros came from a house that we bought back in 2006 so we didn't have a bad deal changing money at that time[:D].

What I really don't like are these sudden movements, talk of the euro collapsing altogether and, of course, the biggie about the UK leaving Europe.  All that plus incompetent governments everywhere and it's not hard to imagine the pain that would have to be endured.

But, as someone has pointed out, we do have trusty old Merkel whipping everyone else into line!

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Who knows what will happen to the Euro ?....... I do not hold a lot of them  or ....like  Mint .....I also would  be worried .

I would have thought that people who own houses in France might consider that they hold a reasonable amount of Euros...

Of course for those with UK income it is swings and roundabouts, since  a falling Euro gives a higher monthly sum, but a lower value on capital assets in France.

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If you have an income from the UK, it could also push you into paying more tax or put you above the threshhold for paying taxe d'habitation.

I don't think it matters much if you are not planning on selling up and moving back to the UK.  Doesn't matter so much if your French house goes up or down if you are staying put.

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Norman wrote :I would have thought that people who own houses in France might consider that they hold a reasonable amount of Euros...

Then there are those who know their kids will get the place and plan to use it themselves after they have gone And no longer bother about what its worth

as they wont be selling it .
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We have been wanting the pound to strengthen for many years now and then last year we decided now that we live here permanently we should invest in Euros.

With this and also as Norman mentioned owning a house here I am now finding the outlook for the euro very worrying. We still have interests in sterling and would not mind seeing it weaken slightly more but definitely don't want the euro to weaken too much and have a fear that it may collapse.

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Living on a very small rental income and the interest on diminishing savings 2007 and 2008 were very very painfull for me, I had to adjust and live on a very small income, far less than the RMI and continue to do so to this day, worse than the hardship was the uncertainty for the future, that is the real enemy especially if you have little or no reserves.

Now I am in the fortuitous position of being well hedged and compared to before, well off, I have properties in both countries and rental income from them in both £'s and €'s, the UK rental has risen 50% and with the movement in the exchange rate the value to me in €'s (which is what all my living costs are in) has doubled.

France is currently a winner because having flipped the other way I am now buying a lot more materials once again over here.

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  • 5 months later...
Now I am revisiting my own thread, perhaps I should have written:  have you seen the exhange rate this evening?

1.4243..........so nearly back to the rate it was when we moved first bought in 2006!

I continue to be worried about this massive and precipitate gain by sterling.  It can't last, right?

So how about splashing out a bit now folk?  An end to austerity, yeah, right!  BUT not if you are Greek........?

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I gather it followed the head of the Bank of England suggesting that interest rates might be going to rise before too long.

It's already too long in many people's minds, but better late than never!

I can't think of much to splash out on at the moment, Mint, although I did order 2 Safe-T-lights and an ankle support yesterday! Plus I've been looking at a Plymobile camping set for our granddaughter's 4th birthday, which isn't far away.

The first of the big splashers - out?
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That weasely Carney fellow?  Don't believe a word of what he says!

He's been saying interest rates would go up for absolutely yonks.  Remember when he said he'd put up rates when unemployment dropped to 7%?  Well, it did and he didn't......talk about empty promises.  I have stopped believing him when I sussed out what he is all about.

Meanwhile us Brits in France can't help but feel as though we have had an unbelievably generous pay rise, I guess.  The man who is doing my kitchen, whom I like to refer to as monsieur le poseur, tells me that he's been rushed off his feet since the spring as Brits are installing new kitchens and bathrooms and the ebeniste tells me he can't finish my dressing because of his sheer volume of work.

Every cloud has a silver lining? 

Hey, I might even pay 10 euros to go for a rando dinatoire next week:  you walk and you eat at intervals until you wind back at the salle for coffee and dessert.

So, GG, I'll join you in splashing out a bit[:D]

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The fact that Greece is going to be given another 3 year bailout which the IMF believes won't be nearly enough to save the situation means that the chances of Eurozone economic growth is significantly reduced, so therefore are the risks for inflation and therefore the need will be for low interest rates in perpetuity. That makes the euro an undesirable investment relative to the pound, hence the rate pushing up. I think the Greeks staying in the Eurozone is like having a player in your football team who you aren't allowed to leave out, but keeps scoring own goals, i.e. in the long term the Eurozone and the euro would be stronger without them. I don't personally expect a rapid fall back in the £/euro exchange rate, but then again who knows.........
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Speaking for myself, WJT, I'll just fix on a rate that I am happy with and then I'd change.

For example, I bought a new kitchen.  It was on the upper level of the sum I had in mind.  So............the kitchen cost X euros and I set a realistic figure in pounds.

I put the amount in pounds in the FX account and, as soon as the amount in euros was reached, I changed.

If I'd waited, I'd be getting a few hundred euros more but, at the time a few weeks ago, when grexit was excitedly discussed, I could have got less than the amount I needed for the kitchen.

You take a chance but you try and limit the downside to something approaching acceptable to you.

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Thank you Mint for replying. I think you could be right at least you know what you are getting . We don't have the money yet (house sale) so not sure exactly how it works but imagine if we forward buy there would be quite a bit of cushion so to speak built in so chances are we would be getting quite a bit less than the actual rate. But if the Euro collapses perhaps a lot less if we waited. :/
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WJT, how about you buy some of the money now and put that aside?  As much of the amount needed as you could manage, making allowance for emergencies, obviously!

Then, if the euro does fall further, you haven't bought the full amount and so can still benefit.  OTOH, if the euro does go up, you will already have a proportion of the money at a favourable rate.

The problem with forward buying is that, the longer the period is, the less you get[:(]

Certainly, at the present time, the rate is nearly back to that of the summer of 2006, when we bought our first house.

Anyway, Good Luck with whatever you are going to do[:D]

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One UK neswspaper has the headline today "Cheapest Holidays to Europe For Years " and points out for £500 you now get 696 euros. France leading the way as most popular destination for a lower cost holiday. No doubt when the Brits are to be seen arriving in large numbers and to be so well off . The tourist resorts will soon put up their prices .
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Not sure we have noticed any more Brits than usual but then July, August and Sept are always rather full and booked well in advance.

With today’s news that Bank of England interest rates will start to go up it seems another nail in the UK coffin. A week Euro is not good for the UK economy as 40% of the UK exports go to the EU therefore UK goods will become more expensive in the EZ. Rising interest rates are being welcomed by savers of course but then mortgage rates will go up and many who have got massive mortgages may find them difficult to service which may result in a stagnant housing market with perhaps prices even dropping. Well that’s what the "experts" are saying although I used the term "experts" with some scepticism as many are the same as those that crashed the markets in 2008 so we will see.

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